american politics & policy election year outlook

American Politics & PolicyElection Year Outlook

Presentation byPhilip M. Burgess, Ph.D.

President, The Annapolis Institute pburgess@annapolisinstitute.net

for Carnegie Mellon University

Vietnam Study GroupMeeting in Washington, D.C.

August 9, 2012

Major Party

Candidates

Incumbent: Barack Obama (Democrat)Major Party Challenger: Mitt Romney (Republican)Third Party Challengers: Libertarian, Greens, Peace &

Freedom, American Independent Party, Constitution Party

Others

IssuesAt the 10,000 foot level

1. Widely-shared: • Jobs/economic recovery, health care, debt & deficit

2. For Republicans:• Romney will limit government, reform taxes, reduce spending and regulation,

repeal ObamaCare, grow the economy and jobs• Obama is an amateur who lacks the skills needed to be president• Obama sees government as the driver of change, innovation

3. For Democrats: • Obama deserves more time to make his policies work• Obama looks out for the little guy, protects the middle class• Romney will favor the rich, cut entitlements and the safety net for the poor

and middle class, and return to the Bush policies of deregulation that led to the GFC

Issues According to Polls

Issue Very Important %Economy 80 Health Care 67 Government Ethics & Corruption

65

Taxes 60Social Security 60Education 60Immigration 49National Security/War on Terror

48

War in Afghanistan 24War in Iraq 19

The Campaign Setting

1. Voluntary, not compulsory, voting 2. Private, not public, financing of campaigns 3. Voters select, political parties validate candidates4. Candidates develop their own political organization5. Political power lies with candidate organization,

not the party organization6. State and local governments run the elections7. Indirect election of president via electors8. Fixed-term for the President: 4 years

What’s at Stake

1. The Presidency = President & VP2. All 435 Members of the House of

Representatives– Current split: Rs=241; Ds=191; Vacancies=3

3. One-third of the US Senate or 33 seats– 23 currently held by Democrats (incl. 1 Ind.)– 10 currently held by Republicans

Over-all Strategy1. Create campaign organization

More important than party organization since JFK Create ‘get out the vote’ (GOTV) at local level

2. Mobilize resources People, money, space, technology, information, leadership

3. Identify ‘safe’ and ‘swing’states Create path to 270 electoral votes

4. Identify issues of concern to core constituencies: “the base” ‘All politics are local;’ move from “herd” to “strays”

5. Manage communications and messaging National Nominating Convention Prepare for the Presidential Debates Messaging, message management (war room), advertising

Strategies:The Path to 270

The Electoral College• In the Constitution: Article II, Section 1, Clause 2, specifies

number for each state state legislature to decide how to select electors

• 538 electors elected by each State • Electors elect the President• Winning majority = 270• ‘Big’ v. ‘small’ states• Urban v. rural states• ‘Safe’ states and ‘Swing’ states

Electoral Vote in 2008Obama 365 v. McCain 173

Electoral Votes for 2012Post-2010 Reapportionment

Seven ‘Swing’ and 11 ‘Battleground’ States in 2012

Status in August States Electoral VotesSolid Democrat (14) 182 Lean Democrat (06) 65…..247Toss-up (07) 85Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), Virginia (13) Nevada (6)Lean Republican (05) 63Solid Republican (19) 143…..206

Seven ‘Swing’ States in 2012(as of July 22, 2012)

Strategies:The Campaign

1. Mobilize volunteers to get out the vote Candidate loyalistsParty activistsIdeological activistsIssue activists

2. Advertising targeted to voters in Swing and Battleground states and to Independent & Undecided voters generally

3. Local events for fundraising, meet-and-greet4. Local advertising – e.g., lawn signs

Strategies:Media

ChannelsBroadcast media: TV & cable news, talk radioSocial media: Twitter, blogs, email, FacebookPrint media: Newspapers, magazines, direct mailApproachPaid media: Ads on TV, newspapers; mail outs, etc.Free media: Coverage of ads, events, controversiesChallengesCost, media bias, clutter

13 Keys to the White HouseConsideration Status

1. After mid-term, Incumbent Party (IP) holds more seats in the HR False2. IP nominee gets 2/3 vote on first ballot in Convention True3. IP candidate is the sitting president True4. No 3rd Party candidate will win more than 5% of vote True 5. Economy is not in recession during the campaign False6. Real per capita growth during term equals or exceeds average (mean) growth for previous two terms

False

7. President achieves major policy change on order of New Deal or Reagan Revolution

False

8. There has been no major social unrest during the term, sufficient to cause concern about unraveling of society

True

9. No recognized scandal that directly touches President True10. No military or foreign policy failure that undermines US national interest or undermines global status

False

11. There has been a military or foreign policy success big enough to advance America's national interests or improve its global standing.

False

12. IP candidate is charismatic or a national hero False13. Challenger is not charismatic is not a national hero TrueTOTAL FALSE (If 5 or fewer are false, IP wins; 6 or more, challenger wins)Source: Allan Lichtman; items in red are my scores today; black are Lichtman’s for Spring, 2012.

4/7

US House of Representativesby Party

2012 US Senate ElectionsBlue=D; Red=R; Grey=No election

Current Division 51 D v. 47 R; Seats up in 2012: D/I=23 v. R=10

Current Governors by PartyRs=29; Ds=20; I=1

Religious Diversity of US GovernorsThe Numbers

ReligiousAffiliation

Number of Governors

Percent of Governors

Percent ofUS

PopulationCatholic 22 44 24.5Baptist 6 12 16.3Methodist 6 12 6.8Lutheran 1 2 4.6Presbyterian 4 8 2.7LDS/Mormons 2 4 1.9Episcopalian 3 6 1.7Jewish 2 4 1.3UCC/Congregationalist

1 2 0.7

Eastern Orthodox 1 2 0.3Other Protestant 1 2 2.2Not stated 1 2 13.2Living in territories, etc.

na na 23.8

Total 50 100% 100%

Religious Diversity of GovernorsThe Distribution

Governing in AmericaAmerica’s Founding Fathers had an abject fear of tyranny and did all they could to contain power.• Separation of powers between the legislative, executive

and judicial branches of government• Division of powers between the central or national

government and state governments (Federalism)• Checks and balances among the branches and between

the national government and the states• Enumerated powers (Article 1, Sec. 8)• Reserved powers (10th Amendment)• Best single source to get a ‘feel’ for the senti-ments of the

Founders: Federalist Papers, #51

Thank you!For more information, contact:

Philip M. BurgessThe Annapolis Institute

Email: phil.burgess@annapolisinstitute.net

3100 Landfall LaneAnnapolis, Maryland 21403

Skype: pburgess3100URL: www.AnnapolisInstitute.net

URL: www.BooterNation.com