april 6, 2020 covid-19 economic update - national ......dentists, physicians temporary staffing...

Covid-19 Economic Update

April 6, 2020

Coronavirus Economic Impacts

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Job Losses by Industry, March 2020Dentists, Physicians

Temporary Staffing

Clothing & Apparel

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Job losses for March totaled 701,000, far exceeding expectations given the brunt of losses were not included in this report.

• Not surprising, food anddrinking establishments wereresponsible for most of the losses.

• The only sector to gain ameasurable number of jobs was government, largely due to the temporary hiring of Census workers (+18,000).

Food & DrinkingEstablishments

Coronavirus Economic Impacts

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New Orleans

Orlando

Boston

Nassau/Suffolk Counties, NY

Honolulu

Miami

Las Vegas

San Francisco

Kahului, HI

New York

Moody’s Analytics Top 10 Economic Exposure by Metro Area/Division

Exposure to virus Demographics Trade/travel disruptions

Tourism Finance Commodities

Source: Moody’s Analytics

• Areas are rated by sixfactors: exposure to the virus, demographics, trade/travel disruptions, tourism, finance and commodities.

• Virus exposure and demographics are primarily behind New York City’s top ranking while tourism plays a larger role in Hawaii, Las Vegas and Orlando.

Coronavirus Economic Impacts

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Economic Policy Uncertainty News-Based Index

Source: Baker, Scott R., Bloom, Nick and Davis, Stephen J., Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: News-Based Index for the United States retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis April 5, 2020.

• The news component of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is based on key words in news coverage in ten major newspapers.

• The index, which averages 100, hit its highest level inMarch since the data series began in 1985.

March 2020

Apartment Industry Impacts• Demand continues to be impacted by fear of job losses, decreased income and fear of contracting

COVID-19.• A large construction pipeline for multifamily is a liability as demand pauses. Nearly 90,000 units were

delivered in Q1 2020 due to warm weather.• Vacant apartments are now deep into rent losses on a two-week basis and the current trajectory will

set rents negative for the year before mid-April. • Multifamily rent growth is declining for all property’s classes, most notably for 4- and 5-star properties.• Honolulu, New Orleans, Las Vegas, Orlando have suffered rent losses nearly 1.5% in March 2020.• Multifamily sales volumes reflect stable income properties in uncertain times are unlikely to trade. In

the last three years, sales volume in March ranged between $8-$10 billion; in March 2020 it stood around $2 billion.

• Despite the challenges facing multifamily, stability is still expected. Renters need a place to live and the federal stimulus package is expected to help tide things over in the short-term.

Source: The Coronavirus Pandemic by CoStar Group, April 1, 2020