arvo viltrop - african swine fever

African Swine Fever –lessons learned in Estonia

Afrikkalainen sikarutto - opetuksetVirossa

Arvo ViltropProfessor of veterinary epidemiologyEstonian University of Life SciencesImbi NurmojaEstonian Veterinary and Food Laboratory

Topics

Some background information How the situation has developedControl and surveillance Impact

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Wild boar populationdensity in 2013

Villisikojen tiheys 2013

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Forests in Estonia

Viron metsät

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Wild boar population in EstoniaVillisikakanta VirossaThe hunters’ estimation of the population of wild boar (Estonian Environment Agency)

Wild boar population dynamics in Estonia in period 1950-2015, based on hunting and counting statistics Kuopio 19.01.2017

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Situation in North-East Europe in the summer and autumn 2014

Tilanne Koillis-Euroopassa kesällä ja syksyllä 2014

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Country The first ASF caseLithuania 24.01.2014Poland 14.02.2014 Latvia (southeast) 26.06.2014 Latvia (north) 18.07.2014

Introduction to Estonia:Restriction zones Oct 2014

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1 4

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Part I

Part II

Hot-spots

(8 km zone)1

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Vienna VetMedUni 28.04.16

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Origin of the infection

Tartunnan alkuperä

Southern introduction -probably WB movement from Latvia

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Origin of the infection

Northern outbreak – probably human introduction

The first infected wild boar detected 1½ year old female of 30-40 kg injured (bullet injury – broken elbo) desorientated No signs at autopsy; ASFV antibody positive; PCR positive

Probable time of infection at least 2-3 weeks before detection

Possible scenariosHuman introduction with infected meat/ABP-s

from the south (Byelorussia – visitors?)east (Russia – truck drivers; visitors?)

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Origin of infection Different epidemiology

Southern outbreak – high mortality ASF first deteted only in animals found

dead

Northern outbreak – no mortality First detected only in hunted animals

Mostly antibody positive

Mortality observed in couple of previouswinters

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Control measures in wild boar 2014-2015 hunting season

Valvontatoimet 2014-2015 metsästyskautella

Chase (driven) hunt prohibited Additional feeding continued at existing feeding grounds.

Establishement of new ones prohibeted

Removal of carcasses of dead wild boar from the forest burial or collection compensation to hunters

Biosecurity measures at hunting and handling of carcasses and by-products.

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11ASF WB infected areaASF VS tartunta-aluet

By 31.10.2014

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12ASF WB infected area

By 31.12.2014

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13ASF WB infected area

By 28.02.2015

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14ASF WB infected area

By 30.04.2015

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15ASF WB infected area

By 30.06.2015

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16ASF WB infected area

By 31.08.2015

Control measures in wild boar 2015-2016 huntingseason

Valvontatoimet 2015-2016 metsästyskautella Intensified hunting (target 1,5 WB / 10 km2 hunting ground

by the end of hunting season 2017/2018. Keep this level until Estonia become free of ASF)

Targeted hunting of females (support 100 EUR/animal)Additional feeding prohibited

Bating allowed – 10 kg per day during hunting seasonRemoval of carcasses of dead wild boar from the forest

(burial or collection - compensation) Biosecurity measures at hunting and handling of

carcasses and by-products.Kuopio 19.01.2017

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Hunting and feeding of WBVillisikojen metsästys ja ruokinta

by Helen Prommik Est Vet and Food Board

According to the decree of Environmental Board (18.08.2015): Bating is allowed during the period of 01.10.2015-30.04.2016

Hunting from hides – bating- 100 kg per slot, on the ground 10 kg of feed per day

Driven hunts are allowed (it was not since autumn 2014)

Hunting bag for 2015/2016 29 600 wild boars

60% sub-adults

60% females

Hunting practicises allowed by Hunting Act Shooting wild boar from a standing motor vehicle

Artificial light source allowed

Hog traps, steel traps

Wild boar with ASF clinical signs is allowed to kill without a hunting permitKuopio 19.01.2017

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19ASF WB infected area

By 31.10.2015

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20ASF WB infected area

By 31.12.2015

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21ASF WB infected area

By 30.04.2016

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22ASF WB infected area

By 31.08.2016

ASF positive wild boar in 2016

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Speed of the spatial spread of the virusAlueellisen leviämisen nopeus

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02468

1012141618

km/m

onth

Surveillance/ Valvonta Passive surveillance – testing of animals found dead or hunted

Part I zones All wild boar found dead investigated by PCR for ASF viral DNA

All hunted wild boar tested by PCR and antibody ELISA before release for retail Meat from animals with neg result allowed to use within Estonia

Part II and III zones All wild boar found dead investigated by PCR for ASF viral DNA

All hunted wild boar tested by PCR and antibody ELISA before release for consumption Meat from animals with neg result allowed to use for own consumption

Sampling: organ material from carcasses by official and approved veterinarians

blood from hunted animals – by hunters

Sampling conducted on-spot or at hunters premisesKuopio 19.01.2017

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ASF surveillance results in 2015/ Valvonnan tulokset 2015

Animal category

Hunted Found dead

Killed Total

No tested 8 617 913 17 9 565

Pos % 4,7 % 74,3 % 47,1 % 11,4 %

only Ab pos PCR + Ab pos* Total Ab pos

No pos 90 95 185Pos % 1,0 % 1,1 % 2,1 %

* incl. 9 Ab doubtful samplesKuopio 19.01.2017

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ASF surveillance results in 2016 (by 30th Nov)Valvonnan tulokset 2016

Animal category

Hunted Found dead

Killed Total

No tested 13404 876 15 14295

Pos % 4,9 % 82 % 73,3 % 9,7 %

only Ab pos PCR + Ab pos* Total Ab pos

No pos 248 129 377Pos % 1,9% 1,0 % 2,9 %

* incl. 9 Ab doubtful samplesKuopio 19.01.2017

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Prevalence of PCR positive hunted WB2015 July – 2016 October

PCR-positiivisten prosentti metsästettyissä VS-ssa2015 heinäkuu - 2016 lokakuu

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In all affectedcounties

ValgaVõruViljandiTartuPõlvaPärnuJõgevaJärvaIda-Viru

Prevalence of PCR positive hunted WB2015 Jan – 2016 June

18.07.2016NOSOVE, Turku

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In different age groups in affected counties/ Eri ikäryhmissä

PCR Neg Pos Prev% 95% CI

Age class: 0 - 1 year 5814 319 5.2 4.7 5.8Age class: 1 - 2

years 3648 107 2.9 2.3 3.4

Age class: > 2 years 3781 97 2.5 2.0 3.0

Age class: missing 152 5 3.2 1.0 7.3Total 13395 528 3.8 3.5 4.1

0

1

2

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4

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  Age class: 0 - 1 year   Age class: 1 - 2 years   Age class: > 2 years

Prev

ale

nce

%

Hunting of wild boar in 2015

Vaikutus ASF epidemian VirossaASF epidemian vaikutus Virossa

Hunting of wild boar in 2013

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Figures: Estonian environmenetalagency

Wild boar population in Estonia

The hunters’ estimation of the population of wild boar was around 12 200in spring 2016 (Estonian Environment Agency)

Wild boar population dynamics in Estonia in period 1950-2015, based on hunting and counting statistics Kuopio 19.01.2017

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Concluding remarks/ Päätelmät Introduction by humans has most likely occurred in NE of Estonia The spread of ASF virus has been unstopable in WB population –

control measures havent had much impact The spread can be slow among wild boar – not all herds in an area

get infected Virus can persist in an area even if density is low.

Human activities have impact on spread among wilboar – theexact mechanism unclear No evidence of domestic cycle of the virus spread

Forestry? Hunting?

Seasonal variation in speed and intensity of the spreadKuopio 19.01.2017

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Kiitos!

Estonian University of Life SciencesSiim Maasikamäe Assoc. Prof.

Veterinary and Food LaboratoryKatrin Lõhmus

Veterinary and Food BoardMaarja Kristian

Kärt Jaarma

Helen Prommik

Environmental AgencyPeep Männil

Friedrich Loefler InstituteKlaus Depner

Sandra Blome

Christoph Staubach

Anja Globig

Klas Dietze

Katja Schulz

and others

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