asia’s youth population: trends and issues products and... · escap region1: major demographic...

Asia’s Youth Population:

Trends and Issues

by

Graeme Hugo

ARC Australian Professorial Fellow

Professor of Geography and Director of the Australian Population and

Migration Research Centre

The University of Adelaide

Presentation to Year 12 Geography Night, University of Adelaide

22nd August 2013

Outline of Presentation

• Introduction

• Changing Numbers of Youth Population

• The Outlook for Growth

• Economic Implications

• Characteristics of the New Youth

Generation

• Mobility

• Social and Educational Participation

• Implications

• Conclusion

Asian Youth

• Largest ever generation of youth

• First with access to universal

education

• First to grow up with modern media

and communication

• First growing up in globalisation era

Diversity in Asia

• Massive variation within and between countries

• 57.7 percent of world’s population

• Range in size – 300,000 – 1.3 billion

• GDP per capita US$1,027 – US$25,130

• Variation in proportion of their population in youth age groups

Massive Demographic Change Which Has Impinged

Upon Youth

• Fertility reduction

• Mortality reduction

• Influenced age structure

ESCAP Region1: Major Demographic Changes, 1970-2011Source: UNESCAP, 1984, 2011

Demographic Variable 1970 2011

Percent

Change

1970-2011

Total Population (m) 2,041 3,998 +95.9

Percent of World Population 55.2 57.2 +3.6

Annual Growth Rate3 2.2 0.9 -59.1

Percent Urban3 24 43 +79.2

Percent Aged 0-143 40 25 -37.5

Percent Aged 65+3 4 7 +75.0

Dependency Ratio3 80 47 -41.3

Total Fertility Rate2,3 5.4 2.1 -99.6

Expectancy of Life at Birth – Males3

52 68 +30.8

Expectancy of Life at Birth – Females3

54 72 +33.3

1 The data exclude the countries of Central Asia which were not part of the ESCAP region in 1970 and 1980.

2 TFR and Life Expectancies refer to the average of the five years prior to 1970. 3 Includes Central Asia in 2011.

Largest NationsSource: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision

Nation 2010 2020

China 1,359,821 1,432,868

India 1,205,625 1,353,305

Indonesia 240,676 269,413

Pakistan 173,149 203,351

Bangladesh 151,125 169,566

Japan 127,353 125,382

000

FERTILITY CHANGE IN ESCAP

TFR

1950-55 5.9

1960-65 5.6

1970-75 5.1

1980-85 3.7

1990-95 2.8

2000 2.4

2003 2.4

2012 2.1

PERCENT IN URBAN AREAS:ESCAP REGION

1950 14.8

1960 17.6

1970 20.4

1980 24.3

1990 30.3

2000 36.9

2003 40.0

2012 45.9

2030 53.0

CHANGES IN THE FAMILY IN ASIA

• Increased family nucleation

• Fertility decline – reduced size of families

• Breakdown of extended family social networks

• Reduced patriarchal control

• Change in women’s status and roles

• Changing intergenerational relationships

• Reduced significance as the unit of production

Asia: Age-Sex Structure of Current and Projected Population, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050

Source: United Nations 2013

200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-79

80+

Number of Persons ('000)

Ag

e G

rou

p

2010

Males Females

200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-4950-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Number of Persons ('000)

Ag

e G

rou

p

2020

Males Females

200,000150,000100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000150,000200,000

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-79

80+

Number of Persons ('000)

Ag

e G

rou

p

2030

Males Female

200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-79

80+

Number of Persons ('000)

Ag

e G

rou

p

2040

Males Females

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-79

80+

Number of Persons ('000)

Ag

e G

rou

p

2050

Males Females

The Asian Youth BulgeAsian Population Aged 15-24, 1960-2010 and

Projected 2020 and 2040 Source: United Nations, 2013

Annual Percentage Growth

Year Number ('000) Percent Per Annum

1960 282,148 17.32

1980 494,387 19.61 2.84

1985 567,840 20.45 2.81

1990 614,391 20.05 1.59

2000 636,293 18.01 0.35

2010 718,194 18.26 1.22

2020 644,330 14.96 -0.54

2040 634,014 13.39 -0.08

Population Aged 15-24

Selected Asian Countries: Proportion of the Population Aged 15-24,1950-2000 (Actual) 2010-2040 (Projected)

Source: United Nations, 2003

Asia

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

perc

ent

Indonesia21.0

22.0

Republic of Korea

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

pe

rcen

t

India20

21

Japan

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

pe

rce

nt

Asia Regions

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

perc

en

t

East

South

South-east

Selected Asian Countries: Proportion of the Population Aged 15-24,1950-2000 (Actual) 2010-2040 (Projected) (Cont.)

Source: United Nations, 2003

Indonesia

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

19.0

20.0

21.0

22.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

pe

rce

nt

10

12

14

16

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

pe

rce

India

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

pe

rce

nt

Laos

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

perc

ent

East Timor

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

pe

rce

nt

8

10

12

14

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

pe

rc

Viet Nam: Projections of Adolescents andYouth Population, 1999-2024

Source: Haub and Huong, p. 12

MIL

LIO

NS

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Share of Population in Working Ages by World Region, Actual 1950-2005 and Projected 2010-2050

Source: United Nations 2007

0.50

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.60

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.70

195

0

195

5

196

0

196

5

197

0

197

5

198

0

198

5

199

0

199

5

200

0

200

5

201

0

201

5

202

0

202

5

203

0

203

5

204

0

204

5

205

0

Sh

are

of

Po

pu

lati

on

Year

Africa Asia

Europe Latin America and Caribbean

North America Oceania

The “Demographic Dividend”

The tendency for the working age

population to grow more rapidly

than the overall population once

Fertility has begun to decline.

The Youth Bulge in Asia

• Peaking of numbers

• Peaking of percentage of total

population

• Varies between countries

• Major role in economic productivity

The Declining Importance of the Youth Population in Asia: 2002 to 2022

Source: Asian Demographics Ltd, 9 August 2003

Significant Changes in the Age Profile of Thailand’s Population: 2003 to 2023

Source: Asian Demographics Ltd, 1 November 2003

The Fuller Youth Bulge

• The youth bulge is associated

with political unrest

• May be at national or sub

national levels

• The Arab Spring

• Concentration in Large Cities

Economic Impacts of Globalisation on Youth

• Shift in distribution of job opportunities

• Effects on education – First generation

of universal education

• More effect on youth than other groups

• Winners and losers

Job Opportunities

• Changing political context (eg China, Vietnam)

• Opening of economies

• Offshoring of manufacturing

• Urban-based opportunities

• Gender dimension

• Higher mobility

• Effects of education

Negative Effects

• Destruction of traditional protectionsystems

• Work conditions

• Lack of security

• Decline in rural areas

• The Asian Crisis effects

• High unemployment

Regional Estimates for Youth Unemployment, 1995-2005

Source: Morris 2006, p. 7

Unemployment Rates for Youth, Adults and Total,

Thailand, 1990-2004 (Percentages)Source: Morris 2006, p. 9

Philippines(Rixhon, 2004, 60)

• Skill mismatches

• Financial constraints on technical institutions

• Limited access to technical education

• Unfair terms of employment

• Attitudinal shortcomings

• Lack of effectiveness of government in

dealing with youth unemployment

Each year 800,000 young entrants to the

workforce not able to be absorbed.

Vulnerable Workplaces for Young Women

• Factories

• ‘Entertainment’ Industry

• Domestic Work

Educational Participation

• Universal Access to Education in Most

Countries

• Issues of Quality, Resources

• Inequality in Access

• Mismatches with Skills Needed in Job

Market

• Can be a Barrier to Enjoying Benefits of

Globalisation

• Gender Dimensions

Indonesia: Disparity of Access to Education

Source:UNESCO 2006, p.44

Number of Tertiary Students Worldwide, 1991 and 2004 (millions)

Source: UNESCO 2006, p. 21

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1991 2004

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Te

rtia

ry S

tud

en

ts (

in m

illi

on

s)

Central Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Arab States

Latin America and Caribbean

South and West Asia

Central and Eastern Europe

North America and Western Europe

East Asia and the Pacific

The Digital Divide

• Differential Access to New

Communication and Information

Technology

• Barrier to Access to Labour Market

• Barrier to Knowledge, Awareness

• Barrier to Global Involvement

Mobile Phone and Internet Use, 2011Source: World Bank online data, http://data.worldbank.org/topic/infrastructure

(per 100 people)

Region Cellular subscribers Internet users

Least Developed Countries 42 6

East Asia and the Pacific 84 39

South Asia 69 9

High Income 122 73

World 85 33

Social Participation

• Key period of lifecycle socially

• Spread of western cultural practices

• Exposure to different ways of doing things

• Challenge to traditional authority structures

• Separation from family

• Clashes in values

Increase in Risky Health Related Behaviour

• Limited access to information

regarding the risks of sexual activity

and contraception

• Peer pressure

• Inadequate access to youth-friendly

health services

• Economic constraints

Indonesia: Age Structure of the Population Reported with HIV Infection, November 2000

Source: Directorate General CDC and EH Ministry of Health, Republic of Indonesia, 2001

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60+

Age

Nu

mb

er

Suicide Mortality of Young Adults Aged 15-24 in Selected Countries and Areas

Source: Ruzicka 1998

Suicides per 100,000 Male to

Country/area in ESCAP Region Year Males Females Female Ratio

Bangladesh 1980-1996 9.3 19.6 0.5

China (rural) 1992 17.4 36.7 0.5

China (urban) 1992 5.6 10.6 0.5

Hong Kong 1994 9.5 8.7 1.1

Singapore 1994 11.7 10.2 1.1

Sri Lanka 1986 77.0 48.0 1.6

Republic of Korea 1994 11.0 5.9 1.9

Japan 1994 12.0 5.1 2.4

Australia 1990-1992 26.0 5.0 5.0

New Zealand 1990-1993 39.0 6.0 6.0

Highest suicide rates in countries of Europe:

Russian Federation 1994 49.0 9.0 5.0

Lithuania 1994 46.0 12.0 4.0

Finland 1994 46.0 8.0 6.0

Latvia 1994 40.0 4.0 10.0

Estonia 1994 38.0 10.0 4.0

Family Participation Issues

• Basic unit of social organisation

• Movement from extended family model

to nuclear family

• Intergenerational clashes

• Challenges to traditional authority

clashes

Asian Countries: Actual and Projected Population Aged 20-34 Years

(in Thousands), 1990-2020Source: United Nations Projections

Year Males Females Total Percent Growth

Asia 1990 374,124 350,788 724,912 2000 427,133 403,832 830,965 14.6 2010 456,755 428,718 885,473 6.5 2020 493,429 461,284 954,713 7.8 East Asia 1990 172,834 165,470 338,304 2000 187,805 178,627 366,432 8.3 2010 171,729 159,346 331,075 -9.6 2020 171,069 155,972 327,041 -1.2 South-Central Asia 1990 141,940 129,454 271,394 2000 171,087 157,341 328,428 21.0 2010 207,132 192,530 399,662 21.7 2020 240,515 225,098 465,613 16.5 Southeast Asia 1990 56,349 55,863 112,212 2000 68,241 67,866 136,107 21.3 2010 77,895 76,842 154,737 13.7 2020 81,847 80,212 162,059 4.7

Emerging Gender Imbalances Among Youth

Emerging Issues

• China’s bare branches – 20 million in

2021

• Also influencing Taiwan, Korea,

Singapore

• Significant number of young men who

will never be able to form a family

• Concentrated on young men who are

poor and in rural areas

Participation in Mobility

• New mobility paradigm in Asia, internal

and international

• Increase in scale and complexity of

mobility

• Youth are disproportionately participants

• Opened up new opportunities as well as

potential for exploitation

• Important gender dimension

Indonesia: Proportion of Recent Migrants By Age and Sex, 1990 to 1995

Source: Muhidin 2002

0.08

0.07

0.06

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.00

0 -

4

5 -

9

10 -

14

15 -

19

20 -

24

25 -

29

30 -

34

35 -

39

40 -

44

45 -

49

50 -

54

55 -

59

60 -

64

65 -

69

70 -

74

75 -

79

80 -

84

85+

AGE AT CENSUS/SURVEY

PR

OP

OR

TIO

N

Females

Males

Main Forms ofInternational Mobility

• South-north migration

• Skilled migration

• Contract labour migration

• Student migration

• Marriage migration

• Increased intra regional movement

Increased Focus on Youth in South-North Migration

• Increased Focus on Skill

• Inclusion of Age in Migration Selection

Criteria

• Connection with Student Migration

• Increasing Significance of Marriage

Migration

Overseas Students in Australian Universities, 1983-2011Source: DEEWR Students: Selected Higher Education Statistics, various issues

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

Nu

mb

er

Year

Overseas Students from Southern and Central Asia

Overseas Students from Northeast Asia

Overseas Students from Southeast Asia

Other Overseas Students

Total Overseas Students (1983-90)

Student Tourism WorkMarriage

Commodified

Marriage

Conventional

ENTRY TO DESTINATION

Conceptualizing Marriage

Migration

Increasing Marriage Migration

• Increased mobility of youth – leading to

increased international marriage/partnership

• Increasing shortages of women in some

countries and regions

• Cultural changes in the role of women

• The marriage migration industry

• Changing previously ‘homogeneous’ Asian

societies

Taiwan

• 32.2 percent of all marriages are to foreigners

• 13.4 percent of births are to foreign women

• 100,000 from Vietnam

Positive Effects

• Expansion of opportunities

• Increased independence and experience

• Remittances effects

• Diaspora and development

• Central role of youth

Negative Effects

• Vulnerability to exploitation and

abuse of human rights

• Exposure to disease

• Separation from family

• Loss of human capital

Conclusion

• Era of massive social, economic, demographic

and cultural transformation

• Key impact of globalisation

• Bridging generation between old and the new

• Winners and losers

• Need for youth sensitivity in policy

• Importance of security - personal, economic and

social

• Danger of being overlooked