asian american millennials: the next wave of change

Asian American Millennials:

The Next Wave of Change

Dr. Raphael J. Sonenshein

The PBI-CalState LA Poll

Cal State LA Downtown Facility

June 29, 2016

Thank You to Our Partner:

Advancing Justice - LA

Stewart Kwoh

Daniel Ichinose

Joanna Lee

• Charlie Woo, Founder and Chair of CAUSE

• Dr. Jun Xing, Dean of Undergraduate Studies at Cal State LA

• Dr. Ping Yao, Director of Asian and Asian American Studies at Cal State LA

• Dr. Scott Bowman, Dean of Natural and Social Sciences at Cal State LA

• Dr. Gar Culbert, Professor of Political Science at Cal State LA

• Susan Pinkus, PBI Polling Consultant

• PBI and Cal State LA Staff

• And the President and Provost of Cal State LA for supporting our polling

Thank you to Our PBI Asian American Poll Working Group

The Challenges of Polling Asian Americans*

• Too few Asian Americans in many national surveys for valid analysis.

• “Asian American” includes differing national origins.

• Language diversity may require translation of questionnaire.

• Need larger overall samples, Asian American only polls, or oversampling.

• *George Gao, Pew Research Center, May 11, 2016

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/05/11/the-challenges-of-polling-

asian-americans/

• AND geographic concentration: California holds the largest share of Asian

Americans, which complicates national polling of Asian Americans.

How Our Poll Addresses These Challenges

• Geographic concentration: Los Angeles County’s Asian American Voters

• Asian Americans only: 1608 overall, with sufficient samples of four major sub groups.

• Survey offered in multiple languages.

• Time consuming but allows detailed analysis

• Tradeoffs: Not as timely as election polls, but deeper analysis is possible

LA County: Asian American Population

• 30.9% of Asian Americans in the United States live in California

• 13.7% of California’s Asian Americans reside in Los Angeles County.

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

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1500

1990 2000 2010

Asia

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Year

925,561

1,137,500

1,346,865

U.S. Census Bureau, 2010

U.S. Census Bureau, 2010

LA County Population by National Origin

Nationality Population

Chinese

Japanese

Korean

Filipino

350,119

102,287

216,501

322,110

Methodology

• Polled 1,608 Asian American Voters from LA County

between October 22, 2015 and January 24, 2016

• Performed via live telephone interviews in five Asian

languages (Cantonese, Japanese, Korean, Mandarin,

and Tagalog) and English

• Results were weighted by:

• Region (LA City, San Gabriel Valley, and remainder

of LA County)

• Ethnicity (Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, and Korean)

• Age (18-44 and 45+)

• Nativity (foreign vs. native born)

Asian American Voters are Very Well Educated.

Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All

HS degree, GED or less 32% 22% 18% 32% 27%

College degree 49% 63% 53% 51% 52%

Graduate degree 19% 15% 30% 18% 21%

Education by Ethnicity

Education by Age

18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Total

HS degree, GED or less 29% 17% 24% 37% 27%

College degree 57% 52% 55% 48% 52%

Graduate degree 14% 31% 21% 15% 21%

Younger voters have high English proficiency

18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Total

Very well 83% 64% 46% 28% 53%

Well 12% 23% 33% 21% 23%

Not well 4% 9% 15% 31% 16%

Not at all 1% 4% 5% 20% 8%

English Language Proficiency by Age

…as do Japanese-Americans and Filipino-Americans

Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All

Very well 40% 61% 87% 35% 53%

Well 24% 30% 11% 21% 23%

Not well 24% 7% 3% 26% 16%

Not at all 12% 2% 0% 19% 8%

English Language Proficiency by Ethnicity

18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All

Never 46% 48% 40% 34% 42%

Some/Often 46% 50% 59% 64% 55%

Religiosity by Age

Religiosity is higher among older voters

…and among the foreign born

Religiosity by Nativity

Foreign Born Native Born Total

Never 39% 46% 42%

Some 21% 26% 23%

Often 39% 23% 32%

…and varies by ethnicity

Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All

Never 58% 21% 49% 32% 42%

Some 19% 18% 28% 11% 23%

Often 20% 53% 22% 55% 32%

Religiosity by Ethnicity

Overall, the majority of voters are foreign born

Nativity by Ethnicity

Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All

Foreign Born 63% 61% 11% 71% 59%

Native Born 37% 40% 89% 29% 42%

….but, the younger and older voters are mirror images

18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Total

Foreign Born 17% 52% 73% 79% 59%

Native Born 83% 48% 27% 21% 42%

Nativity by Age

Most older voters follow Asian media, while most

younger voters lean towards English media.

Average Media Attention by Age

18-29 29% 3% 11% 7% 60% 10% 11% 5% 4%

30-44 31% 12% 11% 6% 64% 16% 16% 13% 9%

45-64 40% 20% 13% 12% 49% 17% 20% 9% 13%

65+ 43% 32% 22% 29% 13% 13% 28% 6% 15%

Total 36% 18% 15% 14% 45% 14% 20% 9% 11%

Foreign born voters rely heavily on Asian Media.

Average Media Attention by Nativity

Foreign Born 34% 28% 11% 21% 37% 19% 25% 7% 16%

Native Born 39% 5% 21% 5% 56% 7% 12% 11% 5%

Total 36% 18% 15% 14% 45% 14% 20% 9% 11%

Chinese-American and Korean-American voters lean

towards Asian media.

Average Media Attention by Ethnicity

Chinese 21% 22% 10% 23% 43% 27% 29% 10% 20%

Filipino 56% 10% 23% 4% 40% 2% 21% 4% 2%

Japanese 59% 6% 35% 2% 41% 4% 3% 12% 0%

Korean 30% 36% 8% 22% 47% 17% 26% 8% 19%

All 36% 18% 15% 14% 45% 14% 20% 9% 11%

Younger voters are most likely to talk to friends but

least likely to donate money to campaigns.

Average Participation Rates by Age

18-29 34% 19% 71% 12% 13% 16%

30-44 33% 22% 69% 20% 13% 23%

45-64 36% 30% 66% 14% 12% 27%

65+ 23% 18% 46% 9% 11% 28%

Total 31% 22% 62% 14% 12% 24%

National differences on participation

Average Participation Rates by Ethnicity

Chinese 19% 14% 53% 9% 10% 20%

Filipino 31% 25% 59% 14% 13% 26%

Japanese 48% 33% 73% 21% 17% 34%

Korean 23% 25% 63% 15% 9% 20%

All 31% 22% 62% 14% 12% 24%

Native born voters are more likely to participate

than foreign born voters.

Average Participation Rates by Nativity

Foreign Born 23% 17% 55% 9% 9% 22%

Native Born 41% 30% 72% 21% 15% 28%

Total 31% 22% 62% 14% 12% 24%

On most issues, especially social ones, young voters are

more liberal than elders.

18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All

Support Affordable Care Act 77% 67% 64% 56% 65%

Support Legal Path to Citizenship 73% 65% 50% 52% 59%

Support for CA Min Wage 68% 69% 70% 75% 71%

Support Same-Sex Marriage 81% 62% 49% 31% 53%

Legalize Abortions 68% 67% 57% 40% 57%

Undocumenteds Help Economy 49% 50% 46% 41% 46%

Asian-Am Representative Importance 68% 74% 72% 78% 73%

Republican Party ID 11% 19% 20% 23% 19%

Views on Issues by Age

All groups favor greater Asian American representation.

Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All

Support Affordable Care Act 56% 69% 71% 71% 65%

Support Legal Path to Citizenship 46% 66% 60% 77% 59%

Support for CA Min. Wage Increase 68% 78% 67% 74% 71%

Support Same-Sex Marriage 45% 53% 80% 41% 54%

Legalize Abortions 60% 41% 76% 42% 57%

Undocumenteds Help Economy 39% 42% 50% 51% 41%

Asian-Am Representative Importance 77% 75% 67% 81% 74%

Republican Party ID 16% 24% 24% 20% 19%

Views on Issues by Ethnicity

Native born voters are more socially liberal than foreign

born voters.

Foreign Born Native Born Total

Support Affordable Care Act 60% 72% 65%

Support Legal Path to Citizenship 52% 68% 59%

Support for CA Min. Wage Increase 74% 67% 71%

Support Same-Sex Marriage 38% 75% 53%

Legalize Abortions 48% 70% 57%

Undocumenteds Help Economy 44% 49% 46%

Asian-Am Representative Importance 76% 69% 73%

Republican Party ID 20% 18% 19%

Views on Issues by Nativity

Male Female Total

Support Affordable Care Act 65% 64% 65%

Support Legal Path to Citizenship 61% 57% 59%

Support for CA Min. Wage Increase 67% 75% 71%

Support Same-Sex Marriage 56% 51% 53%

Legalize Abortions 60% 54% 57%

Undocumenteds Help Economy 48% 44% 46%

Asian-Am Representative Importance 68% 80% 73%

Republican Party ID 22% 16% 19%

Views on Issues by Gender

No obvious gender gap. Dig deeper?

Asian American Voters Agree On

• Desire for representation

• Support for economic change, e.g. minimum wage

• Support for health care and immigration reform

• Significant religiosity overall, even among younger

voters.

A New Generation is Reshaping the Community’s Voice.

• Native born

• Less religious, more liberal, more Democratic

• Drawing their information from English language media

• More likely to talk about politics with friends and family

• Becoming somewhat more like their fellow new generation in

other communities.

But, the Older Generation is Still Powerful.

• 25.9% of Voters are between the ages 45 and 64

• 27.6% of Voters are 65 or older

• Language is critical for political mobilization

• More religious

Challenges and Opportunities for Both

Parties

Democrats:

• Not as tuned into religiosity

• Struggling to inspire younger voters, more attuned to older

Democrats

• Enough targeted outreach to older Asian American voters?

• How to balance representation aspirations in their coalition

Republicans:

• More at ease with religiosity, but their policies are not popular

• Rely on older voter activism, not as comfortable with younger

voters

• Representation issue may help Republicans

Consistent With a New National Election Poll by Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote (APIA Vote) and Asian Americans Advancing

Justice (AAAJ)

• “Inclusion, not Exclusion: Spring 2016 Asian American Voter Survey”

• Survey of 1212 Asian American registered voters nationwide.

• “Asian Americans are shifting in party identification toward the Democratic Party.”

• “Young Asian Americans (18 to 34) are a key demographic to watch.” Far more likely than elders to identify with Democratic party; to approve of President Obama; and to support Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton.

Join the Conversation!

Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs

Cal State LA

5151 State University Drive

Los Angeles, California 90032

#PBIAsianAmPoll

www.PatBrownInstitute.org

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