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NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 1 J Randers 1
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years:
The role of the Club of Rome Jorgen Randers
Professor Center for Climate Strategy
Norwegian Business School BI
Club of Rome Fundraiser Berlin, September 4th, 2015
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 2
The Limits to Growth (LTG):
Twelve scenarios for the 21st century, warning against
growth beyond the carrying capacity of small planet Earth.
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J Randers 3
A much better future is possible
1. Solving the climate challenge is not impossibly costly
2. It requires a shift of 2 % of the world’s labor and capital from “dirty” to “clean” sectors
3. Sadly, it is difficult to find support for this solution
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J Randers 4
Plan for today
1. What is likely to happen over the next 35 years, to 2050?
2. What needs to be done to improve on this future?
3. What forces will work against this solution?
4. What can be done to reduce this resistance?
5. What should the Club of Rome do?
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2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next
Forty Years A forecast of global
development to 2052, predicting that the world will
follow the LTG pollution scenario
See www.2052.info
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Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050
World population will peak in 2040
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
0
2
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Birth rate (scale →)
Death rate (scale →)
Population (←scale)
% / yr Gpersons
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1
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World GDP growth will slow down
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
0
30
60
90
120
150
0.0
1.0
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World GDP (scale →)
G$ / yr % / yr
Long term growth rate in output per person aged 15 to 65 (←scale)
g130605j
6.0
Gp
8.0
10.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Population aged 15 to 65 (scale → →)
Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Output per member of potential workforce
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0
30
60
90
120
150
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World GDP
Non-discretionary spending
(repair, adaptation, mitigation)
G$ / yr
Consumption
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 4
Traditional investment
(24% of GDP)
Figure 4-4: Production, Consumption and Investment – World 1970 to 2050
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
More unavoidable repair and adaptation work
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J Randers 9
Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050
World energy use will peak in 2040
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
0
60
120
180
240
300
0
4
8
12
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World energy use (←scale)
toe / M$ Gtoe / yr
Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale →)
180
G$ / yr
World GDP (scale →→)
240
300
120
60
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6
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0.0
1.3
2.6
3.9
5.2
6.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Oil use
Gtoe / yr
Nuclear use
Gas use
Coal use
Renewable energy use
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 8
Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
World use of fossil fuels will peak around 2030
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Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050.
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 emissions (←scale)
tCO2 / toe GtCO2 / yr
Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy (scale →) 15
Gtoe/yr
Energy use (scale →→)
20
25
10
5
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 9
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Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050
Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 2052
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0
100
200
300
400
500
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 in atmosphere (←scale)
deg C ppm
Temperature rise (scale →)
0.9
m
Sea level rise (scale →→)
1.2
1.5
0.6
0.3
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 10
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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
There will be huge regional differences
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
After-tax income per person (in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)
US
OECD-less-US
China
World average
Rest of world
BRISE
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Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast
♣ World population and economy will grow more slowly towards 2052
than most people expect - but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis
♣ Consumption will stagnate
because society will have to spend ever more labour and capital
on repair and adaptation
♣ The short-term nature of man - reflected in the short term focus
of democracy and capitalism - is the root cause of this development
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J Randers 15
What needs to be done to improve the future? 1. Remove poverty
Both in the rich and the poor world Using traditional methods But with more respect for central planning (which provided most of the real gains since 1990)
2. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions First in the rich world Means to reduce the use of coal, oil and gas That is, to increase energy efficiency, renewable fraction, and CO2 capture and storage (CCS) Concretely: to reduce energy intensity (energy use per GDP) and CO2 intensity (CO2 per energy use) twice as fast as during the last 40 years
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What forces will work against this solution?
1. The incumbents in the “dirty” sectors Both workers and owners “Dirty” means energy intensive, CO2 intensive, pollution intensive, resource intensive
2. Those who dislike high taxes and strong government They are many Some principled, some based on egoism Most based on short term perspective on societal development
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What can be done to reduce the resistance? Focus on solutions that give an advantage to a majority
of voters in the short term.
1. Electric cars in the bus lane – to bypass the rush
2. Rooftop solar panels – for energy independence
3. Subsidy systems where the benefit comes first and the cost later (like financing of the Energiewende)
4. Green stimulus packages – for more jobs
5. Wealth tax on the top third to build low-carbon energy plant – “free” greening as seen by majority
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It is time to act!
jorgen.randers@bi.no www.2052.info
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What should be done? - Ideally
1. Further slow population growth Introduce 1-child policy – first in rich world
2. Cut CO2 emissions – first in the rich world Ban the use of coal, oil and gas from 2024
3. Reduce poverty in the poor world Give a climate-friendly energy system to the poor
4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world Legislate more compulsory vacation
5. Temper national short termism Establish supra-national institutions
6. Reduce the focus on income growth Establish “increased well-being” as the new goal
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What can be done? – Realistically (1 of 2)
1. Further slow population growth ♦ Give moral support to women with < 2.1 children ♦ Increase the pension age ♦
Explain that the “support burden” will not grow 2. Cut CO2 emissions – first in the rich world
♦ Subsidize energy efficiency in all sectors ♦ Build no new coal capacity in the rich world ♦ Tax coal and oil and distribute the money evenly
3. Reduce poverty in the poor world ♦ Use most development aid to build renewable energy capacity in the developing world ♦ Copy the planned rise of Japan, South Korea and China – and their use of “strong government”
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What can be done? – Realistically (2 of 2)
4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world ♦ Simplify shift from dirty to clean production = provide income security in transition
♦ Reduce production growth = reduce length of the work year, i.e. more leisure
4. Temper national short termism ♦ Establish a global agreement where all nations promise to emit less CO2 per person than the US ♦ Evolve IPCC to “IPCC 3” (a supernational org. with funding to pay for the most effective cuts)
5. Reduce the focus on income growth ♦ Start measuring “growth in well-being” alongside “growth in GDP”
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