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PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Biodiversity indicators for national use
For support of policies and integrated development strategies By Tonnie Tekelenburg
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Content
Policies and indicators Biodiversity indicators for
national use Selection for modelling and
scenario analysis
What is biodiversity?
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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CBD definition of biodiversity: “diversity of genes, species and ecosystems”
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Species
Wild species
Domesticated species
Biodiversity conservation
Sustainable use
Benefit sharing
Biodiversity conservation
Sustainable use
Benefit sharing
Well known biodiversity indicators
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Global Biodiversity
red list
wilderness areas
species richness
agro-biodiversity (commercial species) LPI
quality of ecosystems
natural/nature area
species trend index
pressure index
hot spots
The DPSIR model
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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IMPACT on human wellbeing DRIVERS
PRESSURES
STATE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BIODIVERSITY
RESPONS
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
Biodiversity is about people
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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State of the art indicator framework
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Genetic Functional Associated (Wild species)
Pressure International market
Pesticide-use
Landuse intensity
State Agro-biodiversity
pollinators Farmland bird trend-index
Response Poverty reduction?
Ecological corridors
Key questions State: What is the state of biodiversity in national ecosystems?
Pressures: What is the current use of potential ecosystems? What is the socio-economic context of people?
Drivers: Population growth Economic growth or poverty trap, changing consumption patterns, technology change
Impact: What is the impact of changing human use on biodiversity? What is the impact of infrastructure on patters of biodiversity loss? Responses: What is the effectivity of implemented policies such as protected areas? What is the level of financieal support to biodiveristy conservation?
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Species diversity
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Plant species diversity
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Species trend index (LPI)
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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How to measure change?
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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How to put nature and biodiversity in figures: Number of species? Number of threatened species? Number of extinct species? Extent of ecosystems? Extent of species rich ecosystems? The number of individuals of certain (Key) species?
Biodiversity loss is not only the extinction of species! Extinction is just a last step in a long degradation process
Characteristics of good indicators
Policy (goal) oriented Measurable and affordable Scientific sound Easy to communicate Describe process of homogenisation Can be related to human impacts Scale independent Use of models as data are not always available
(see next slide)
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Indicator framework (example)
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Grupo Aspecto Criterio Estadística
¿Estado de los
ecosistemas?
¿Contribución de las AP?
Estado
Ambiental
Ecosistemas Área del ecosistema natural X X
Índice de diversidad de ecosistemas X X
Especies Índice de diversidad de especies X
Número de especies amenazadas X X
Servicios Aporte ecosistémico Área de tipos de uso en un ecosistema X
Presupuesto hídrico anual
Social Condición población Estructura de la tenencia de la tierra X
Incidencia de la pobreza de la población
Presión
Actividades productivas
Extracción Extensión de concesiones madereras X
Tasa de deforestación X X
Producción Producción camaronera anual
Accesibilidad potencial X X
Social Dinámica poblacional Densidad media de la población
Tasa de crecimiento de la población X
Respuesta
Estatal
Nacional Presupuesto ambiental nacional X
Presupuesto del Ministerio del Ambiente X
Seccional Planes ambientales seccionales X
Presupuesto seccional ambiental
Gestión AP Extensión de áreas protegidas X
Inversión en áreas protegidas X
Sociedad
Inversión conservación Inversión internacional en conservación X X
Inversión nacional en conservación X
Investigación Publicaciones científicas
Inversión tecnológica Inversión en tecnología limpia
Org. ambientales Número de organismos ambientales
National statistics
Ind
icators
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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SAfMA casestudy
Southern Africa and RIVM
Europa study by WCMC and RIVM
Great five of Africa by external specialist groups
Representative species for global biodiversity
Marine Ecosystems by RIVM and WCMC
Generic model on pressure index and country species occurrence datasets by RIVM, GRID and WCMC
Analysis with data gaps
Analysis with a short time frame
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Analysis with a longer time frame
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Indicator: why is baseline important?
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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List of biodiversity indicators and its complementary value
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Indicator Complementary value 1 Absolute species richness
relative contribution to global biodiversity
2 Shannon-Wiener (Weaver) index
---
3 Species richness (relative) --- 4 Number endemic species
Uniqueness of species (and habitats)
5 Red list species threatened with extinction or extirpation
Urgency for protection measures
6 Species(group) trend index
high affected species groups (migratory birds)
7 Area of ecosystems Land use change
8 Quality of ecosystems
Average impact
9 Rareness or scarceness of species in ecosystems
-------
10 Local pressure index
sustainable resource use nature conservation strategies
11 Global and regional pressure index
Response options
12 Wilderness area
Conservation priority
13 Hot spot areas
Vulnerability of ecosystems Sustainable development
14 Mean Species Abundance
Average trend species diversity Naturalness
Drivers = underlying causes Demographic change Economic growth Poverty and inequality National public policies and markets Ineffective government and non cohesive society Macro-economic policies and structures Social change and development biases Patterns of consumption Climate change
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Pressures = unconscious and conscious cumulative effects of human activity Habitat conversion Unsustainable use and management Domestication Introduction of invasive exotic species Selective harvesting: trade of species, hunting and fishery Pollution of air, soil, and water Natural events Fire and erosion Disturbance by light and noise Fragmentation Removal vegetation cover Thinning, hunting, gathering or fishing of populations of species Exposure to toxic elements from the environment
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Environmental conditions Change vegetation cover Climatic conditions temperature and precipitation Adequate soils Changes in fertility of soils: Nitrate availability Acidity (PH) in soils Changes in structure of soils
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Red list of Threatened species
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Species Richness: Known plant and animal species
Ecosystem quality
Ecosystem size
LPI (Species
trend index)
Abundance - distribution trend per species
Hot spot
Local and regional pressures
Wilderness area
Mean Species Abundance
Area country or ecosystem size +
Endemic species
7 8 9
3 4
2
11 10
13 12 14
+
6
1
Invasive species
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Potential ecosystems
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Siglas Ecosistema Km2 % Nac
bha Bosque húmedo amazónico 74919,87 30,12
bhai Bosque húmedo amazónico inundable 11913,33 4,79
bhc Bosque húmedo de la costa 47405,15 19,06
bhmoc Bosque húmedo montano occidental 21201,09 8,52
bhmor Bosque húmedo montano oriental 31827,93 12,79
bsmor Bosque seco montano oriental 368,97 0,15
bsoc Bosque seco occidental 33863,97 13,61
h Humedal 448,03 0,18
m Manglar 2819,91 1,13
n Nieve 212,05 0,09
ph Páramo húmedo 13680,72 5,50
ps Páramo seco 1804,4 0,73
vhi Vegetación húmeda interandina 5943,22 2,39
vsi Vegetación seca interandina 2369,56 0,95
Remnants of natural ecosystems
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
bha bhai bhc bhmoc bhmor bsmor bsoc h m n ph ps vhi vsi
Natural Mosaico Intervenido
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Distribution of nature, mosaics and intervention areas
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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56
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Average naturalness/intactness of ecosystems (MSA)
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
bha bhai bhc bhmoc bhmor bsmor bsoc h m n ph ps vhi vsi NAC
Comparison between ecosystems
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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77,05 7,35
2,83
Humid tropical forest = 87,23 MSA 5,1
7,14
15,96
High versus low integrity/intactness
Scrubland ecosystem = 28,20 MSA
Share of ecosystem in and outside the national protected area system
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
bha bhai bhc bhmoc bhmor bsmor bsoc h m n ph ps vhi vsi NAC
Dentro SNAP Fuera SNAP
Average ecosystem quality/ ecosystem integrity (MSA) of protected areas
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Área protegida Biovalor
Refugio de Vida Silvestre Islas Corazón y Fragatas 0,05
Ecosistema de Manglar del Esturio del Río Muisne 0,28
Refugio de Vida Silvestre Isla Sta.Clara 0,40
Reserva de Producción Faunística Chimborazo 0,76
Reserva Ecológica Mache Chindul 0,76
Reserva Ecológica Los ILinizas 0,77
Reserva Ecológica Manglares Churute 0,84
Parque Nacional Cotopaxi 0,87
Reserva Ecológica Manglares Cayapas Mataje 0,87
Parque Nacional Machalilla 0,90
Parque Nacional Sangay 0,91
Reserva Ecológica Cayambe Coca 0,93
Parque Nacional LLanganates 0,97
Reserva de Vida Silvestre Pasochoa 0,98
Reserva de Producción Faunística Cuyabeno 0,98
Reserva Ecológica Cotacachi Cayapas 0,99
Parque Nacional Yasuní 0,99
Parque Nacional Cajas 0,99
Reserva Ecológica Cofán Bermejo 1,00
Parque Nacional Podocarpus 1,00
Ecosystem integrity (MSA) in protected areas
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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A minimum set of biodiversity indicators
Human pressures on biodiversity: land use change etc. State: change of area size of natural (and agricultural)
ecosystems State: changes of mean species abundance (MSA) ecosystem
intactness Change of species trends (STI or LPI) State: changes of the red list species (RLI) Response: goal realisation indicator(s) related to evaluation
of the impact of specific policy measures (size of protected area for example)
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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Conclusions
Start from policy-oriented key questions and existing statistics
Find historical data and future projections
Use proxy indicators
Integrate local indicators with national frameworks for modelling and analysis
PBL and SCBD workshop: regional scenario analysis. Nairobi 28 January - 1 February 2013
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