building a weather-ready nation ken graham meteorologist-in-charge wfo new orleans/baton rouge...

Building A Building A Weather-Ready Weather-Ready

NationNationKen GrahamKen Graham

Meteorologist-in-ChargeMeteorologist-in-ChargeWFO New Orleans/Baton RougeWFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge

Kenneth.Graham@noaa.gov

985-649-0429 x4985-649-0429 x4

Our First Building: U.S. Custom’s House on Canal St.November 1871 through March 1915

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Our First Building: U.S. Custom’s House on Canal St.November 1871 through March 1915

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Happy 141th Birthday

National Weather Service

New Orleans

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Our Second Building: 600 Camp St. U.S. Post OfficeMarch 1915 through December 1961

National Weather Service Doppler Radar

An Eye On The Storms!

Aviation Forecasts – Safety in the Sky!

Upper Air Observations -

Our balloons can reach 100,000 feet!

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Critical Forecasts

Fire Weather Forecasts

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River Forecasts and Warnings

Space Weather

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Tsunami Damage

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Photo by Ken Graham (National Weather Service)

Hurricane

Hurricane Katrina – August 2005

Storm Surge

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NWSChat

Outreach and Education

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What is a Weather-Ready Nation?What is a Weather-Ready Nation?

A society that is prepared for and can respond to high impact, weather-dependent events

…Incident Support

Weather Impacts What You Do!

Decision SupportDecision Support

Why A Weather-Ready Nation?Why A Weather-Ready Nation?

IkeIke

River FloodingRiver Flooding

WildfiresWildfires

20082008

WildfiresWildfires

TornadoesTornadoes

DroughtDrought

20092009 20102010

DWHDWH

River FloodingRiver Flooding

2011 – Groundhog Day Blizzard2011 – Groundhog Day Blizzard• Impacted several central, northern,

northeastern states• Brought Chicago to a standstill• $1.8 billion in damages• 36 deaths

2011 – Tornado Outbreaks2011 – Tornado Outbreaks• 5 outbreaks across

central/southern/southeast states• Caused $24 billion in total damage and 545

deaths• Impacted several large, metropolitan areas• EF-5s in MO, MS, AL, and TN

2011 – Drought and Wildfires 2011 – Drought and Wildfires • Major impacts across TX, OK, NM, AZ, KS, AR, and

LA• 2,000 homes and 4,000 other structures lost• Over $9 billion in total losses so far• Losses expected to rise as the event continues

2011 – River Flooding2011 – River Flooding• Record river flooding on the Mississippi River• Additional flooding in the upper midwest• Up to $6 billion in damage• At least 7 deaths

2011 – Hurricane Irene2011 – Hurricane Irene• Landfall over NC and moved northward along the

coast• Major flooding in the Northeast due to heavy rains• Over $7 billion in damages• At least 45 deaths

Weather-Ready Nation VisionWeather-Ready Nation Vision• Set forward 6 goals seeking to improve services

within the various earth and atmospheric sciences

• Implement the Weather-Ready Nation Plan by utilizing pilot projects

• Build new partnerships and strengthen existing partnerships with the media, private sector weather and climate vendors, researchers and academia, other NOAA agencies, and “decision makers” on the federal, state, and local levels

Pilot ProjectsPilot Projects

WFO Washington/BaltimoreDecision support in an urban region

WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LADecision Support in a coastal region

Fort Worth, TX Regional Operations CenterDecision Support at the regional level

Silver Spring NWS Operations CenterDecision support at the national level

WFO Tampa, FLIntegrated Environmental Services

WFO Charleston, WVMesoscale Science

State College, PA WFO/River Forecast CenterEnhanced Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

Boulder, COEnvironmental Information Systemsand Aviation Research

Monterey, CAEmerging and Collaborative ServiceSector: Golden Triangle Expansion

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We Continue to Focus on the Mission!

Mission: To Protect Lives and Property

Where Science Impacts Decisions and Decisions Save Lives!

Photo by Ken Graham (National Weather Service)

Deploying to Incident Command

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Deploying to Incident Command(Command Staff Briefings)

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Deploying to Incident Command

(All-Hands Briefings)

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Emergency Response Desk

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Mission Decision Support Services

(Warnings and Forecasts)

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Aviation Weather Briefings

• Operations were heavily dependent on weather decision support

• Weather was the GO/NO GO factor on a daily basis beginning at the 0600 briefing

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Aviation Decision Support•

– Low level dispersion flights (100 to 1000 foot winds)

– 2nd level spotter flights (500 to 1500 feet)– Mid-level reconnaissance flights

(1500 to 5000 feet)– High-level intelligence flights (5000 – 45000 feet/satellite)– Emergency Terminal Forecasts for

non-routine locations• NASA Stennis Airport

(Staging Area) and Terrebonne-Houma Regional Airport (Incident Command)

– Presidential Flight Support

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Intelligence Gathering

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WFO New Orleans prepared a Daily Over-Flight Forecast to aid in satellite imaging data quality and high altitude flights

In-Situ Burns - Fire Weather/Marine • Not your typical wildfire

or prescribed burn• Critical operating levels

based on wind direction, wind speed, seas, wave steepness, swells, mixing height, and thunderstorms

• Main motivation for the hourly spot forecasts

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Marine Support

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Many vessels in tight operations

BurnsBoom deploymentSearch and rescueSkimming

Tides

Heat Stress • Most event related injuries/illness heat stress related (International Response)

– ~ 40% of all reportable injuries.

• Critical factor on the beach– 40-20 rule and 20-40 rule– No Tyvek covering

• 40 minutes each hour, 20 minutes of supervised rest in a tent.

– Full Tyvek protection • 20 minutes work each hour, 40

minutes of supervised rest in a tent.

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Tropical Storm Bonnie– July 23-25, 2010

Tropical Depression Five– August 10-11, 2010

– Direct threats to the area of operations

– Prompted 3 day shut-downs– Met 15% criteria

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Tropical Threats

Severe Weather Surveillance• From April 22 – Oct 09

– 22 Tornado Warnings– 112 Severe Thunderstorm

Warnings– 358 Special Marine

Warnings– 26 Flood/Flash Flood

Warnings

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518 critical warnings during event

• Clear Weather Forecasting• Operational need for calm seas, low winds, and

few thunderstorms – Around July 8th, we found a week long window

• “We think this weather presents a significant opportunity for us to accelerate the process of capping – shutting down the well from the top and increasing the prospects for being able to kill the well from below through the relief wells” – ADM Thad Allen (ret)

“Weather Windows”

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Media Interview Coordination

Media interviews for oil, hurricanes, and during real time tropical systems

We coordinated messages through talking points and huddles through out each day

Simultaneous Incident Responses

Mar 30 (pre-spill): Denham Springs Petroleum Warehouse Fire July 30: Mud Lake in

Barataria Bay pipeline leakSep 2: Another Rig explosion south of Cameron, LA

Aug 12: Paincourtville, Assumption Parish, LA gas leak (108 spots issued)

Aug 9: New Orleans East train derailment – 19 cars involved

WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal AreaDecision Support in a Coastal Area

• 2,897,606 people living in the forecast area with most people living within 50 miles of the coast and around Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas

• Select Strategic Assets:

LA Offshore Oil Port Stennis-Space Center

Federal City Keesler Air Force Base

Waterford III Nuclear Plant Northrup-Grumman

River Bend Nuclear Plant Mississippi River

WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal AreaDecision Support in a Coastal AreaChallengesOver 7,500 miles of coastline subject to an annual threat of land-falling hurricanes Thousands of miles of navigable waterways subject to both high and low water threatsSevere weather can occur year-roundEarly, late, or extreme freezes can adversely affect citrus and berry cropsAbove or below normal river flows can significantly impact the seafood industry - especially crawfish and oyster production

WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal AreaDecision Support in a Coastal Area

A few things we learned during DWH:Some agencies have not included the NWS in response plans

Routine forecast elements and precision are not always sufficient

Local expertise is invaluable when dealing with a large scale response and an intricate coastline

WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal AreaDecision Support in a Coastal Area

Goal 1:

Ensure WFO LIX is the first call for all weather and water support for all environmental disasters in SE LA and coastal MS

Partner Requirement Services

Understanding Your Thresholds/Trigger Points

WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal AreaDecision Support in a Coastal Area

Goal 2:

2.5 km Grids

Tablets/Smart Phones (Apps.)

Decision Maker Tools

WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal AreaDecision Support in a Coastal Area

Goal 3:

Training the way we fight, not just a book (exercises)

Certification in more than just weather

WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal AreaDecision Support in a Coastal Area

Goal 4:

Deployment Criteria/Warm Zone Briefings

Significant Weather Emergency Response Vehicle (SWERV)

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WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal AreaDecision Support in a Coastal Area

Goal 5:

Getting information out

5-Day Track Forecast cone and Watch/Warning

700Mhz

WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal AreaDecision Support in a Coastal Area

Example:

Mile Marker Forecasts on the Mississippi River

Impact Based Forecast

Spot Forecast at the Scene (wreck, spill, incident)

NWS Board June 2008 NWS IM Services 56

Marine Forecasts – Winds, waves, weather, and tidal flooding issues from the coast out 60 nautical miles

Photo by Ken Graham (National Weather Service)

An App for That?

59Total Snowfall (in) Clean up Costs

(in $ Millions)

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GaryChestnut

Days of Cleanup

61Total Snowfall (in) Number Stranded

Schoolchildren

62Timing of this storm was CRITICAL !!!

Gary Occurred During a WEEKEND

Chestnut Occurred on the FIRST DAY of the WORKWEEK at Rush Hour.

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Rush hour

National Weather ServiceDecision SupportBP Deepwater Horizon Oil SpillApril 20, 2010 through January 15, 2011

Knowing the ImpactsKnowing Your Trigger Points

***Where Science Impacts Decisions and Decisions Save Lives***

Building Strong RelationshipsBuilding Strong Relationships

We can’t do it alone!

ContactContact

Kenneth.Graham@noaa.govKenneth.Graham@noaa.gov

985-649-0429 x 4