business forecasting barometer approach: economic

BUSINESS FORECASTING

1. Barometer Approach: Economic Indicators 2. Analysis of Expectations and Intentions 3. Construction of Economic Models and Projections

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

9a>A>o/yic fh^cASr A/op RBAurrV.

&t>Hkan<Lelr, ^ 1933 .

APTHUR, H. B. and DENNIS, S. J.

Selected individual commodities and recent cyclical fluctuations in business, REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STATISTICS,

November 15, 1932. Pp. 10.

BABSON, R. ¥.'

BUSINESS BAROMETERS USED IN THE ACCUMULATION OF MONEY; A TEXT BOOK ON APPLIED ECONOMICS FOR MERCHANTS, BANKERS, AND INVESTORS.

Vellesley Hills, Mass.: 1st ed., 1909; 2nd ed., 1910 3rd ed., 1910 4th ed., 1911 5th ed., 1912

6th ed., 1913 pp. lv + 426

17th ed., 1925 pp. ii + ?

BARNES, Leo

HANDBOOK FOR BUSINESS FORECASTING. Nev York: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1948.

Author File BRATT, E. C.

The use of behavior classifications in business cycle forecasting (University of Chicago), JOURNAL OF BUSINESS, Vol. XXII,

October, 1949. 16 pp. (pp. 209-224.)

BRATT, E. C.

The use of behavior classifications in business cycle forecasting, JOURNAL OF BUSINESS (University of Chicago), Vol. XXII, October, 1949, pp. 209-224-

Dak tottW rt> xvi&sast ^hr 0iv/&rss Cycle t IK- elf. Juty ,M* f/>- '*&'

BRATT, E. C.

Business-cycle forecast ing, (University of Chicago), JOURNAL OF BUSINESS,

January, 194-3. Pp. 11

BRATT, E. C.

The timing of capital production and the need for forecasting, HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW,

Summer, 1937. Pp. 9.

BROOKMIRE, J . H.

Financial forecasting: i v . banking barometers, MOODY'S MAGAZINE,

April , 1913-

Methods of Business Forecasting based on Fundamental Statistics, AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW,

March, 1913.

BURGESS, Robert Vi.

The whole duty of the statistical forecaster, JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, Vol. XXHI, December, 1937, pp. 636-642.

BURNS, Arthur F.

THE FRONTIERS OF ECONOMIC KNOWLEDGE. Princeton: Pilnceton University Press, 1954-

National Bureau of Economic Research26th, 30th, and 33rd Annual Reports (194-6, 1950, 1953) reprinted

'Diffusion indexes1 discussed

BURNS, Arthur F. and MITCHELL, ¥. C.

MEASURING BUSINESS CYCLES. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 194-6.

Conference on Research in Income and Wealth

SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTING, Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol. XVII. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 195 •

Seven investigations by Bassie, Modigliani, Hultgren, and other economists, into the prediction of economic behavior over one or two years ... including surveys of r

business anticipations in the United States and Canada, forecasts of freight traffic, and the well-known Surveys of Consumer Finances.

* Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

COX, Garfield V.

AN APPRAISAL OF AMERICAN BUSINESS FORECASTS. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1930

DAUTEN, Carl A.

BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS AND FORECASTING Sou-th-Western Publishing Co. , 1954-

ffAUTEN, Carl A.

BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS AND FORECASTING. Cincinnati, Ohio: South-Western Publishing Co., 1954. Pp. viii, 518.

Review: by Rendigs Fels, SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, XXI, Jan. 1955, pp. 3A2-A3.

textbook on business fluctuations, standard works- Gordon, Hansen, Tinbergen,

and Hambergj latest Bratt

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK

SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS. New York, December, 1 9 r e . Pp . 74.

DEWEY, E. R. and DAKIK, E. F.

CYCLES: THE SCIENCE OF PREDICTION. New York: Henry Holt & Co., 1950.

GARVY, George

"Short Term economic forecasting" (discussion of paper by I. Schweiger, in STUDIES IN INCOME AND WEALTH, Vol. XVII.

GARVY, George

The Development and Their Use in Economic Board of Governors of the 1952.

of Bank Debits and.Clearings Analysis• Washington: Federal Reserve System,

GILBERT, R. V. and PERLO, Victor

The investment-factor method of forecasting business activity, ECONOMETRICA,

July-October, 1942. Pp. 6.

1̂: R e s e r v e JvtsWm

business forecasting, see p, 87

HARDI, C. 0. and COX, G. V.

FORECASTING BUSINESS CONDITIONS. New York: Macmillan, 1927.

Pp. x, U3U*

HARDY, C. 0 . , and COX, G. U.

FOBECASTING BUSINESS CONDITIONS. New York: Macaillan Company, 1927.

JORDAN, David F.

BUSINESS FORECASTING. New York: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1921. Pp. xv, 270.

HAUSER, P. M. and LEONARD, V. R., Editors

GOVERNMENT STATISTICS FOR BUSINESS USE. New York: Wae^ejj946. Pp. x v i , 432 .

KIHLER, A.

Forecasting the Business Cycle, SOCIAL RESEARCH, VOL* VI, No. 3, September, 1939*

LIVINGSTON, J. A.

Economic research and public policy, AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, SUPPLEMENT, Vol. XLV, No. 2, May, 1955, PP- 296-311.

Discussion: by Ewan Clagge, pp. 312-14-; Grover V. Ensley, pp. 3M-18; Stanley Lebergott, pp. 313-20; Bert Seidman, pp. 320-24; Merrill A. Vat son, pp. 324-28.

MOORE, Geoffrey H.

Economic Indicators and the Economic Outlook, MICHIGAN BUSINESS REVIEW, Vol. VII, January 1955, pp. 1-8.

MOORE, Geoffrey H.

"Analyzing Business Cycles,11 THE AMERICAN STATISTICIAN,

April-May 1954, PP- 13-19.

In this Moore describes two approaches to economic forecasting which are currently being investigated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. One is based on an exhaustive investigation of timing relations among economic series, for the purpose of identifying series vhich in their cyclical turns usually lead, coincide with, or lag general cyclical swings. The other involves "diffusion indexes," or proportions of selected time series that are expanding.

MOORE, G. H«

Analyzing the Economic Cycles, DON'S REVIEW AND MODERN INDUSTRY, Oct. 1953.

Ec« forecasting; approach to question whether a bus. recession is in making.

Rrewar record vs. 1948-49 recession

MOORE, Geoffrey H.

"The Diffusion of Business Cycles," 1955.

MOORE, Geoffrey H.

STATISTICAL INDICATORS OF CYCLICAL REVIVALS AND RECESSIONS. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1950,

[Occasional Paper 31]

MOORE, Geoffrey H.

Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions, Occasional Paper 31. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1950. 97 pp.

MOURRE , Baron

Le nethode Harvard pour la prevision des crises et les perspectives actuelles aux I&ats-Unis, JOUR. DE SOC. STATISTIQUE DE PARIS,

September-October, 1948. Pp. 13.

NEWBUPY, F. D.

A business forecas t , 1952-55, HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW, XXX, March-April, 1952, pp. 95-10^.

NEWBURY, F. D.

BUSINESS FORECASTING. Nev York: McGraw-Hill Book Co. , I n c . , 1952.

PARKER, Frank

The development of business forecasting, ADMINISTRATION, Vol. IV, September, 1922, pp. 269-275.

PERSONS, Warren M.

FORECASTING BUSINESS CYCLES. Nev York: Wiley, 1931. Pp. xiv, 295.

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PERSONS, Warren M., William frufant FOSTER, and Albert J. HETTINGER, JR. (editors)

THE PROBLEM OF BUSINESS FORECASTING. Poblications of the Pollak Foundation, no. 6. Boston and New York: H0ttgbton, Mifflin. Company, 1924. Pp. xiii, 317.

Review: by W. A. Berridge, AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, XV,

March, 1925, pp. I6I-I64.

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PERSONS, Warren M.

Construction of a business barometer based upon annual data, AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Vol. VI, December, 1916.

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C i h ; Ju/y / 9 3 4 , p- dfjrfr <~

PROCHNOV, Herbert V. Ed.

DETEEMBJING THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK Hew York: Harper, 1954- •

445 pp.

3. HQABPLEY, V.E., Jr.: The importance and problems of business forecasting, pp. 8-30.

2. ABRAMSON, A. G.: Business cycles, pp. 31-50. 3. PETERSON, J. M.: Money supply and the level of busines

activity, pp. 51-108 /*• Dunkak, Vm. H.j Albrecht, P>.> Spangler, F. LeRoyj

Roche, ffah&j and Sedlmayr, J. H.:

f>. Klein, L» R.s Savings and the propensity to consume, 109-25.

6. McCracken, P. Vi.: Gross national product and national income, pp. 126-51.

7. Field, Kenneth: Industrial production—durable goods, pp. 152-67.

B. kichter, F. E.: Nondurable goods, 163-39. ?. Mcintosh, A. J., and Slifer, W.I^.: Fuels, pp. 190-215. Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

10. Thompson, D.S.: Construction,, 216-35 II* Bogen, J.I.: Railroads and public utilities, 236-47 13* Hitchings, G.P.: Automotive transportion, 2£&-$t 1A* Walker, Q. F.: Personal consumption expenditures,

pp. 265-35. 15. Kellogg, L.S.: Agriculture, pp. 286-305 16. Clague, Ewan: ^rices, wages and employment, 306-29. 17. LindoB, Wesley: Treasury receipts and expenditures,

and management of the public debt, 330-57. 18. Young, C. £.: New businesses, business failures, and

inventories, pp. 38-87. 19. Hersey, A. B.: World markets and foreign trade, 417-

3A. 20. Garfield, F. R.: Long time trends, pp. A35-

ROBINSON, Roland I.

Measuring seasonal ups and downs, BANKING, June, 1950.

p. 20.

SMITH, B. B.

A forecasting index for business, JOUBNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, Vol. XXVI, June, 1931, pp. 115-129.

sxrnm, carl Measurement versus Theory in Economics,

in ECONOMIC ESSAYS IN HONOR OF GUSTAV CASSH..

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%u&/A>ess Cvct.es AMD Bos/Ajess.

Pjo. x/t/ +3*<.

i^fro.cf. " The iti/urc £} b*w/*u*o oyc&* "

Pp. xiv, 326.

Studies in quantitative economics

SNIDER, Richard M.

MEASURING BUSINESS CHANGES. New Torfc: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1955* Pp. xvli, 382.

SNYDER, Richard M.

MEASURING BUSINESS CHANGES: A HANDBOOK OF SIGNIFICANT BUSINESS INDICATORS. New York: John Wiley & Sons, I n c . ; London: Chapman and Hal l , L t d . , 1955. Pp. x v i i i , 382.

TRUESDELL, L. E.

Pitfalls in the field of statistical forecasting, JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, XXXIII, June, 1938, pp. 373-379.

TURNER, Robert C.

Problems of forecasting for economic stabilization AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, SUPPLEMENT, XLV, No. 2, May, 1955, pp. 329-340.

Discussion: by Solomon Barkin, pp. 351-53; H. R. Bowen, pp. 353-55; R. A. Lester, pp. 355-57.

ULMER, M. J.

THE ECONOMIC THEORY OF COST OF LIVING INDEX NUMBERS. New York: Columbia University Press, 19-49. Pp. 106.

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VABDWELL, Charles

AN INVESTIGATION OF ECONOMIC DATA FOR MAJOR CYCLES. Philadelphia:

business forecasting barometer approach: economic

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