c zech blossom case study flis blossom meeting 17 –18 june 2013, copenhagen klára vočadlová...

CZECH BLOSSOM CASE STUDYFLIS Blossom meeting 17 –18 June 2013, Copenhagen

Klára Vočadlová

CENIA, czech environmental information agency

LONG-TERM THINKING AND GOVERNANCE LANDSCAPE - HISTORY

Before 1989 - 'future thinking' connected with socialist centrally planning, environmental foresights did not exist, absence of legal and institutional framework in the environmental protection

After 1989 (Velvet Revolution) – during 1990s first environment related strategic documents, 1995 first State Environmental Policy

2004 – accession to the EU, adoption and implementation of EU directives

LONG-TERM THINKING AND GOVERNANCE LANDSCAPE – PRESENT

Conception and strategic documents – environmental or including environmental components, use a forward-looking approach, mostly without scenarios

Future scenarios and long-term foresight studies are not in common use in policymaking

Forecasts and projections, quantitative scenarios x qualitative and context scenarios are lacking

Direct impact on environmental policymaking - primary intended for decision-making, mainly participation of experts, high level of political and ideological involvement

Foresight agenda is not institutionalised, not organised in a particular programme at national level, no formal requirements or methodology

Temporary ad-hoc groups or committees leading the process

Central approach Level: governmental, national Role: coordination, setting a main strategy, cooperation Studies: main cross-cutting strategic documents (Strategic

Framework for Sustainable Development ) direct relevance to the EU legislation and strategic documents

Sectoral approach Level: Ministries, departmental, national Role: coordination, cooperation, production Studies: departmental strategies integrating environmental

issues (State Environmental Policy, State Energy Policy, Potential for reduction of air pollutant emissions in the year 2020)

RESPONSIBILITIES

Regional and local approach Level: local authorities and self-governing territorial units

(regions, municipalities) Role: coordination, cooperation Studies: short-time strategic documents with regional or local

extent (Strategic Plan for Prague)

Research and nongovernmental approach Level: all research organisations, universities, NGOs, private companies Role:

scientific support for strategic planning cooperation with governmental institutions on preparation of

strategic documents external examiners political and ideological opponents

RESPONSIBILITIES

INSTITUTIONS INVOLVED

STAKEHOLDERS AND EXTERNAL RELATIONSHIPS

Public involvement: Through Strategic Environmental Assessment Through NGOs and public initiatives

BLOSSOM CASE STUDY – PROCESS OF SELECTION

Find the study key organisations

Criteria Horizon – time span 5–10 years and more Coverage – CZ Topic – economy, demography, environment Availability – public

3 studies 2020, 2040 Climate change, air pollution, energetics CZ – national level

BLOSSOM CASE STUDY – SELECTED STUDIES – TEMPLATE 2

National Program to Abate the Climate Change Impact in the Czech Republic – 2020 (2030), Ministry of the Environment, three GHGs emissions scenarios, exploratory, quantitative

Potential for Reduction of Air Pollutant Emissions in the Czech Republic in the year 2020 – Ministry of the Environment, scenarios of five main air pollutants (GAINS model), normative, quantitative

State Energy Policy of the Czech Republic – 2040, Ministry of Trade and Industry, only one preferred scenario of development and structure of basic energy indicators, exploratory and normative, quantitative

BARRIERS & SUCCESS FACTORS

Barriers Forward-looking issues are not institutionalised Any formal requirement to provide long term analysis Weak linkage between policy making and foresight

(scenarios) – short-term and mid-term policy making Forward-looking studies - tool for strategic planning and

sectoral environmental policy, scenarios are not in common use

Lack of political support and staff continuity (departmental changes)

Success EU as a driver Existence of main sectoral strategies Good situation concerning climate change and air pollution

scenarios Expert base, research

BLOSSOM: USEFULNESS, CHALLENGES, SUGGESTIONS FOR WAYS FORWARD

Find gaps and weaknesses of future thinking in the country Institutional support and budget allocation is lacking Weak historical experiences General mistrust of long-term scenarios – uncertainty x

certainty

Recognise new problems and challenges

Input for strategic discussion

Support for current policy

Comparison with other countries – inspiration, lesson learn, deadlocks

Find a way how to…: Integrate scenarios in common decision making and

strategic thinking Transform a short-term orientation into a long-term Integrate future organisations – networking, stimulate open

discussion, create a common foresight platform Connect scientific and politic rationality

Create pressure on policy makers Popularise forward-looking approach

BLOSSOM: USEFULNESS, CHALLENGES, SUGGESTIONS FOR WAYS FORWARD