can we survive without immigration? gunnar heinsohn

SMART CITIES CONGRESSGdansk, 22-23 October, 2014

Gunnar Heinsohn

CAN WE SURVIVE WITHOUT IMMIGRATION?

34 Countries (blue) in OECD (Poland member since 1996) will, in 2020, be short of 18 million high-skilled workers but must pay welfare vor 35 million unemployable people.

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Polish Immigration and Emigration 1960-2006http://focus-migration.hwwi.de/typo3_upload/groups/3/focus_Migration_Publikationen/Laenderprofile/bilder/Country-profiles/cp-03-poland/grafic2_gr.gif

2011: 56 AGING – “DYING” – NATIONS (TOTAL FERTILITY RATE [=CHILDREN IN A WOMAN’S LIFETIME] BELOW 1.8 (NON-EUROPEANS IN RED; NET REPRODUCTION REQUIRES 2.1)

USA 2.06 UK 1.92

Trinidad1.72

Cuba1.61

Portugal 1.50

Estonia1.43

Armenia1.36

Moldova1.28

Japan1.20

Australia1.78

Tunisia1.71

Canada1.58

Albania 1.47

Bulgaria1.41

Germany1.36

Romania1.27

Taiwan1.15

Luxembg.1.78

Sweden1.67

Macedon. 1.58

Spain1.47

Russia1.41

Slovakia1.36

Ukraine1.27

Singapore1.10

Lebanon1.78

Netherl.1.66

China1.54

Switzer.1.46

Austria 1.39

Italy1.32

Bosnia+H.1.26

HongKong1.04

Norway 1.77

Belgium1.65

Liechten.1.53

Cyprus1.45

Serbia1.39

Latvia1.31

Czech R.1.25

Macau0.91

Denmark 1.74

Thailand1.65

Malta1.52

Georgia1.44

Hungary1.39

Poland1.29

Lithuania1.24

Finland 1.73

PuertoR.1.62

Monaco1.50

Croatia1.43

Greece1.37

Slovenia1.29

Korea, S.1.22

Communism‘s last decade (1980-1989) has cost Poland 1.2 million of the best and the brightest

(http://focus-migration.hwwi.de/Poland.2810.0.html?&L=1)

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Between 1980 and 1989, an estimated 1.1 to 1.3 million Poles have left Poland for good.24,000 fewer inhabitants to make TRICITY

(ca. 2% of Polands population) smarter!

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POLES IN THE UNITED KINGDOM(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poles_in_the_United_Kingdom#mediaviewer/File:Polish-born_people_in_employment_in_the_UK_2003-2010_-_chart_2369a_at_statistics_gov_uk.gif).

POLES IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

>60,711 Polish-born (2001 Census)

>579,000 Polish-born (2011 Census)

>850,000 resident Poles (May 2012)

>637,000 Polish citizens residing in the

UK for more than 2 months (2013)

POLES IN GERMANY

Poles with Polish citizenship living

2013 in Germany:

609.855

(“Ausländische Bevölkerung 2007-2013“; destatis.)

People with ethnic Polish background 2009 in

Germany:

1.5 million

(Sebastian Nagel, Zwischen zwei Welten: Kulturelle Strukturen der polnischsprachigen

Bevölkerung in Deutschland. Analyse und Empfehlungen, Stuttgart: Institut für Auslandsbeziehungen, 2009, p. 9.)

Just in 2012 Germany welcomed 184,325 Poles (173,000 in 2011).[http://www.derwesten.de/wirtschaft/zuwanderung-nach-deutschland-auf-rekordhoehe-id7927281.html]

HOLDERS OF POLISH PASSPORTS LIVING ABROAD (IN MILLION)

[Polish Ministry of Finance; http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/47717194-4b80-11e2-88b5-00144feab49a.html#axzz3C3oBv7fI]

• 2011: 2.1 million

[=45,000 fewer inhabitants

for making TRICITY

smarter!]

If Germany is a reliable indicator for the ratio between Polish passport holders living abroad and ethnic Poles living abroad (1:2.5) there are some 5.5 million ethnic Poles abroad.

That is a total loss of ca. 110,000 smart inhabitants

that would have made TRICITY smarter.

Qualifications of emigrants from Eastern Europe (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Chech R., Hungary) 2008 and 2011

Dark blue: high; light blue: middle; red: low.[http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article131844972/Kluge-Koepfe-machen-um-Deutschland-lieber-einen-Bogen.html]

Emigrants of the 1980s left two siblings behind to secure netto-reproduction.

Emigrants from 2010 ff. left less than one sibling behind, thereby ending netto-reproduction.

• Poles of the cohorts 1950-1960, who have been emigrating in the 1980s, were born at a time when Poland‘s total fertility (children in a woman‘s lifetime) stood at ca.

• 3.5

• Poles of the cohorts 1990-1994, who have been emigrating 2010-2014, were born at a time when Poland‘s total fertility (children in a woman‘s lifetime) stood at ca.

• 1.7

There Are More Difficult Cases Than Poland

Just Look at Bulgaria and the Baltic States!

Poland’s and Eastern Europe’s Mortal Dangers

1 Low total fertility (1.2. to 1.4 children in a woman’s life time).2 High elite emigration.3 Low attraction for skilled immigrants.4 Low innovation (few patents).5 No technological leadership to set prices.6 Low competitiveness7 Low quality of aging

GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS 2014 [POLAND: No. 36](http://www.imd.org/news/2014-World-Competitiveness.cfm)

Quality of Aging: Global Ranking 2014 (POLAND: No. 62)[http://www.helpage.org/global-agewatch/data/global-rankings-table/]