can we teach that duck to fly?resource-solutions.org/.../rem/presentations/2014/linvill_carl.pdf ·...

The Regulatory Assistance Project 50 State Street, Suite 3Montpelier, VT 05602

Phone: 802-223-8199www.raponline.org

Can We Teach that Duck to Fly?

December 3, 2014

Carl Linvill, PhDPrincipal

Renewable Energy MarketsSacramento, CADecember 2014

Takeaways

• More variable renewables and local resources affect electricity needs

• Institutional and behavioral evolution is the key

• Reforms: “integration challenge”

• Reforms: “duck curve”

• Beyond capacity and energy toward valuing capabilities is key

2

The Integration Challenge

• More Efficiency, Conservation and DG affects Net Load

• More Variable Renewable Energy affects Net Load

3

Changes in Consumption & More Non-dispatchable Generation affects Net Load

4

Meeting Targets at Least Cost (WGA/RAP/NREL – June 2012)

• Expand Sub-hourly Scheduling

• Facilitate Dynamic Transfers

• Implement EIM

• Improve Forecasting

• Leverage Geographic Diversity

• Improve Reserves Management

• Retool Demand Response

• Use Flexibility of Existing Generation

• Flexibility in New Gas Generation

5

The “Duck Curve” Challenge

• Local generation on the distribution system combined with large scale PV installations affects net load in a particular way

• This has become known as the “duck curve” challenge

6

The California ISO “Duck Curve”:Increasing solar means steep afternoon ramping.

7

Guess What: Ducks Can Fly

8

A duck in water has very much

the shape of the CAISO graphic.

The “fat body” floats, and the tall

neck breathes.

A duck in flight stretches out its

body and straightens its neck in

order to reduce wind resistance.

Our job is to straighten

this duck out.

Ten Strategies To Align Loads to Resources(and Resources to Loads)

1. Targeted energy

efficiency

2. Orient solar panels

3. Use solar thermal

with storage.

4. Manage electric

water heat

5. Require new large

air conditioners to

include storage

6. Retire older inflexible power

plants

7. Concentrate demand charges

into “ramping” hours

8. Deploy energy storage in

targeted locations

9. Implement aggressive demand

response programs

10.Use inter-regional exchanges

of power

9

Not every strategy will be

applicable to every utility.

Teaching the Duck to Fly

Requesting Permission for Take-Off

How Did We Do?

Pre-Strategy, without Solar/Wind: 73% LF

Pre-Strategy, with Solar/Wind: 63% LF

Post-Strategy, with Solar/Wind: 83% LFHourly Ramp: 340 MW vs. 400 today, and 550 w/o strategies

11

Beyond Capacity and Energy toward Valuing Capabilities

• Identify needed capabilities and compensate resources fairly

– Make system needs transparent

– Qualify all resources (and verify)

– Reform markets & procurement

• “What Lies Beyond Capacity Markets,” RAP, 2012

12

Takeaways

• More variable renewables and local resources affect electricity needs

• Institutional and behavioral evolution is the key

• Reforms: “integration challenge”

• Reforms: “duck curve”

• Beyond capacity and energy toward valuing capabilities is key

13

To 33% and Beyond: It’s about individual & institutional evolution

This is not about a technology silver bullet …

How well do we use today’s info tech?

Energy is abundant

14

The Regulatory Assistance Project 50 State Street, Suite 3Montpelier, VT 05602

Phone: 802-223-8199www.raponline.org

Resource Materials:

The Least Cost Integration Challenge: http://www.raponline.org/document/download/id/5041

Teaching the Duck to Fly:

http://www.raponline.org/document/download/id/6977

Clean Keeps the Lights On:

http://www.raponline.org/document/download/id/7175

Regulatory Consideration Associated with Expanded Adoption of Solar (w/ NREL):

http://www.raponline.org/document/download/id/6891

About RAP

The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) is a global, non-profit team of experts that focuses on the long-term economic and environmental sustainability of the power and natural gas sectors. RAP has deep expertise in regulatory and market policies that:

Promote economic efficiency Protect the environment Ensure system reliability Allocate system benefits fairly among all consumers

Learn more about RAP at www.raponline.org

Carl Linvill

clinvill@raponline.org

775-450-0603