cash win fall leak
Post on 20-May-2015
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Cash WinFall Leak
A Quick Guide on How Lottery Become ATM
$ 6 Million
• http://www.masslottery.com/games/lottery/cash-winfall.html
How WinFall Lottery Works
• 46 pick 6• 2 - $2• 3 - $5• 4 - $150• 5 - $4,000• 6 - $MAX ( $500,000 - sales 60% )
JACKPOT
ROLLDOWN
• 2 - $2• 3 - $50• 4 - $1,500• 5 - $40,000• 6 - $MAX ( $200,000 - sales 60% ) • (Jackpot back to 500,000 after Rolldown)
Normal VS ROLLDOWNSame No. Normal ($) Rolldown ($)2 2 23 5 504 150 1,5005 4,000 40,000
?
Smallest Winning Probability
=
Other Probabilities=
=
=
=
Not Winning Probability
=----=0.831
Normal Expectation
==-1.20
1000000-2=999998
Rolldown Expectation
==2.46
Things Changed
• Nothing Change for small buyer• But for 100,000 up buyer• There are probability meanings• Every Rolldown they will gain
E(2.46)x100,000=246,000
What Does Retailer Do?
Earn? Draw?
∑𝑘=1
50000
𝑋𝑘 𝑁 (𝐸(∑𝑘=1
50000
𝑋𝑘) ,𝐷(∑𝑘=1
50000
𝑋𝑘))
∑𝑘=1
50000
𝑋𝑘 𝑁 (123000 ,153465.92 )⇒
Earn? Draw?
=0.112
Lottery – A Game of Probability
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