china's future

China’s Future

The End of the Original Chinese Dream

China is no longer the state as Maointended.

Future?• Peaceful rise . . . gentle giant act• —Tom Friedman• Slow motion revolution• —Ian Johnson• Rogue economic superpower—Paul

Krugman

What can go right?

• Economy & employment• Exports & Consumerism in China• Standard of living improves• Social harmony• International respect

Hard Work Ahead!

High growth? low cost labor =small middle class

Slow growth?higher labor costs=larger middle

More to do!

China must find new sources of growth.

Chinese leaders are trying to deflate a real estate bubble.

What can go wrong?

Population

• Expansion—1.5 billion people by 2030• Approaching zero population growth

– Due in part to 1979 population control 1-child policy

• Aging population with life expectancy assumed to lengthen by 2030

Consequence

• 2030 China’s median age will be over 41, higher than Europe or the U.S.

• In this future China, there would be more than three senior citizens for each young child.

Can Growth Continue?

China’s FutureDemographic outlook?

Rising nationalism?

Aggressiveness?

Or

Peaceful evolution?

mature international responsibility?

Threats

• Increasing wages for blue collar workers.• Slow economic growth.• Managing the transition from a lower

income to a higher income society.

• World Bank report 2012

Social Inequality

"When China's leader Deng Xiaoping said, 'To get rich is glorious,' (Did) he imagine that the gap between rich and poor in China could have serious political implications."

Zeng Xiangquan, a labor economist at People's University.

The Happiness Factor

Despite much lower levels of income, lifesatisfaction among urban Chinese wasalmost as high as in the developed world.

Richard A. Easterlin

Questions

Can China continue to prosper while limiting freedoms?

Will China’s remain content by offering economic freedom?

Will China use the free market to satisfy its energy needs?

Will China become aggressive and take what energy it needs?