collective intelligence [30min].innovation kitchen 10 nov 2015

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Collective Intelligence.Josep Mª Monguet

Feb 15th Elisava. Barcelona

jm.monguet@upc.edu http://huntingmammoths.com

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CI is not new …

The end of mammoths

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CI has existed since the beginning of time and it’s a key for innovation.

Spear-thrower innovation + length of the lever+ acceleration of the dart+ elements to fit the fingers, + small weight + forceful + accurate launch of the dart.

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1Individual vs. collective intelligence

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IQ Score Classification> 145 Genius130–144 Gifted120–129 Superior110–119 Above Average90–109 Average80–89 Below Average70–79 Borderline impaired55–69 Mildly Impaired< 54 Moderately Impaired

We know about individual profiles

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http://team.onsanity.com

Individual profiles can be mixed to see the profile of

the group

http://onsanity.com/project-view/team-equilibrium-management

/

About Team equilibrium

To do 1. Play with http://team.onsanity.com…but not so much about collective profiles

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Organization, coordination, management control, …Ideas, visions, provocation, change, …

Analysis, caution , logics, prevention, …

Positivism, benefits, team building, …

Intuition, feelings, sense, emotions, …

Documentation, facts & figures, …

Brains working in parallel with efficiencyCI as team performance. Correlation with how well a team works.

…but not so much about collective profiles

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You have your own individual intelligence,

… may be improved slowly with hard work.

You may participate in collective intelligence in different teams with very different results.

Individual vs collective intelligence

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2CI a new & old discipline.

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Ramon Llull: from ‘Ars electionis’ to social choice theory

Voting by couples

System of exhaustive binary comparisons

Couples = n*(n-1) / 2

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Voting by couples

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Condorcet's Jury Theorem

Probability, PN , that a jury gives the correct answer, given: N = the number of jurorsp = the probability of an individual juror being rightm = the number of jurors required for a majority

The graphs suggest that when an electorate is large enough, and individuals in that electorate are right more often than wrong, elections would act as a ‘truth tracker’.Statistical Consultants

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1906. Video

If crowd was one entity its guess about the weight of the ox

would be keen.

Consensus.

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Consensus.Sales reps seek out the executive who can single-handedly approve a deal at a company.Reps today rarely find a unilateral decision maker. More often, they discover that the authority to make decisions rests with groups of individuals—all of whom have different roles, and all of whom have veto power. Reaching consensus and closing deals has become an increasingly painful and protracted process for customers and suppliers alike.

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3Digital technology fostering CI

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“Unfettered exchange of ideas in cyberspace has the potential to liberate us from the social and political hierarchies that have stood in the way of mankind's advancement”.

Who is working in the CI field?From knowledge stock to knowledge flux

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Who is working in the field?

Technology helping us to be much more efficient in working together. Hidden potentials for intelligence development.Education of collective abilities.Tools to play as collectives as we have to play as individuals.

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Participation in collective intelligence

Who is working in the field?

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Our model of ourselves as individuals must change in accordance with the new coordinates of collective

CI Options matter as much as Individual Positions

Collective Intelligence coordinates

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*Digital

TransparencyCyberdemocracy

Public empowermentD-A creation & production

Collective Intelligence coordinates

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Collective Intelligence coordinatesDigital g Transparency

EveryoneEverything

Everywhere

SeeShow

Acknowledge

Human society is becoming

transparent to itself

Pierre Lévy

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Cyberspace userFree market accessWelfare management

Territories & Religions

Global lawJustice

Diversity value

Digital citiesLocal eGovernmentsVirtual communitiesVotes on line

Collective Intelligence coordinatesCyberdemocracy g Public empowerment

Participation

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Informational capitalism

Economic goods ubiquity in cyberspace

Unexpectedcommunism

Planetary public services

Conscious investment

Conscious consumption

Learningopen

organisations

Continuousinnovation

Cooperativecompetition

Collective Intelligence coordinatesD-A g Creation g Production

Regulation from cyberdemocracy

Creation from CI

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4Collective intelligence measure.

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CI groups communicate more and participate more equally than other groups.

Measuring CI“In two studies with 699 people, working in groups of two to five, we find converging evidence of a general collective intelligence factor that explains a group’s performance on a wide variety of tasks. This “c factor” is not strongly correlated with the average or maximum individual intelligence of group members but is correlated with the average social sensitivity of group members, the equality in distribution of conversational turn-taking, and the proportion of females in the group.”

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Social skills predicting a group’s CI. Social perceptiveness measured by people’s ability to judge others’ emotions based on pictures of their eyes.

Measuring CI

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Sharing is one of the best indicators of the level of CI

Measuring CI

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5CI areas.

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Collective Intelligence Fields of application

Collective Intelligence

Knowledge

ActionJudgment

Predictions

Collaboration

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Collective Intelligence Fields of application

Knowledge

S Ki

Collective Intelligence

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Real time big dataUnconscious consensus

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Knowledge of groupsShared knowledge

95 % of the times the guess of the

audience is correct

Slumdog millionaire, 2006

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To go deeper: Knowledge approach to CI“Moving” knowledge

Tacit Knowledge

Explici

t knowledge

i i gi

ii

ii

i

i

go

o

g

ggg

SocialisationExternalisation

Internalisation combination

SECI Model (Nonaka,1994)

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Collective Intelligence Fields of application

Collective Intelligence

Ç Ji

Judgment

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Wisdom of “little” crowdsAverage values of society.

We have a huge responsibility

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Local participation. Vallejo case

voxpopuli.stanford

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Collective Intelligence Fields of application

Collective IntelligencePredictions

f (px)

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High accuracy forecastingCarefully selected experts

The aggregate opinion of a group of selected intelligence analysts

will guess what is going to happen with certain precision

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Collective Intelligence Fields of application

Collective IntelligenceAction

f (S Fi)Mississippi Burning (1988)

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Assignment of resourcesCrowd funding for financial assignment to innovation

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Collective Intelligence Fields of application

Collective IntelligenceCollaboration

S eiWitness (1985)

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TerciarioShared diagnosisAn error in two health decisions

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Data voluntary donorsCyber research?

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62050 Trends. Collective vision of future

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“I'm an inventor. I became interested in long-term trends because an invention has to make sense in the world in which it is finished, not the world in which it is started”

Ray Kurzweil

Minority Report, 2002

Exercice 2. Collective vision of future

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A structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.

Based on the assumption that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.

The core aim is to build consensus, particularly in relation to controversial objectives.

Delphi technique

Pre – to do. Collective vision of future

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Blue profile

Orange profile

Green profile

Cultu

re

Technology

Society

Sustainable

development

Environment creation

Netw

orks

of

know

ledg

eGl

obal

com

mer

ce

Dynamic business m

odels

Innovation guided

research

To do 2. Collective vision of future

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http://lab.healthconsensus.net To do 2. Collective vision of future

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