communism's shadow: historical legacies and contemporary...

Communism’s Shadow: Historical Legacies and Contemporary PoliticalAttitudes

Grigore Pop-ElechesPrinceton Universitygpop@princeton.edu

&Joshua A. Tucker

New York Universityjoshua.tucker@nyu.eduTwitter: @j a tucker

Fullbright Ukraine

May 8, 2017

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

The Book!

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Outline of Remarks

Background on overall project

Theoretical framework

Methodological approach

Results from one chapter

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics

Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa

Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter

However, literature characterized by:

Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters

Mainly single country “just so” stories

Comparative work only within region

Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and noton individual-level behavior

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics

Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa

Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter

However, literature characterized by:

Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters

Mainly single country “just so” stories

Comparative work only within region

Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and noton individual-level behavior

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics

Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa

Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter

However, literature characterized by:

Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters

Mainly single country “just so” stories

Comparative work only within region

Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and noton individual-level behavior

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics

Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa

Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter

However, literature characterized by:

Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters

Mainly single country “just so” stories

Comparative work only within region

Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and noton individual-level behavior

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics

Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa

Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter

However, literature characterized by:

Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters

Mainly single country “just so” stories

Comparative work only within region

Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and noton individual-level behavior

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Project Motivation I: Evolution of Literature on Post-Communist Politics

Originally, post-communist societies assumed to be tabula rasa

Pendulum swung back in other direction: legacies clearly matter

However, literature characterized by:

Ad hoc approach to how legacies matters

Mainly single country “just so” stories

Comparative work only within region

Most work on effect of legacies on institutions (democracy, corruption, etc.), and noton individual-level behavior

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Project Motivation II: Stylized Facts

Systematic Variance in Political and Economic Attitudes between Post-CommunistCitizens and Non-Post-Communist Citizens

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Goals of the Book Manuscript

1 Demonstrate that these differences in opinions do/do not exist

2 Provide a theoretical explanaiton for these differences that allows us to assess theextent to which these differences are legacies of Soviet communism

3 To evaluate which legacies are most important

4 To develop a methodological approach for doing so

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Goals of the Book Manuscript

1 Demonstrate that these differences in opinions do/do not exist

2 Provide a theoretical explanaiton for these differences that allows us to assess theextent to which these differences are legacies of Soviet communism

3 To evaluate which legacies are most important

4 To develop a methodological approach for doing so

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Goals of the Book Manuscript

1 Demonstrate that these differences in opinions do/do not exist

2 Provide a theoretical explanaiton for these differences that allows us to assess theextent to which these differences are legacies of Soviet communism

3 To evaluate which legacies are most important

4 To develop a methodological approach for doing so

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Goals of the Book Manuscript

1 Demonstrate that these differences in opinions do/do not exist

2 Provide a theoretical explanaiton for these differences that allows us to assess theextent to which these differences are legacies of Soviet communism

3 To evaluate which legacies are most important

4 To develop a methodological approach for doing so

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Chapters of Book Manuscript

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Chapters of Book Manuscript

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Theoretical Explanations for Post-Communist Divergence: GeneralArgument

Divergence could be due to living in a post communist country.

Divergence could be due to living through communism.

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Post-Communist Divergence: Living in a Post-Communist Country

Demographic Factors

Economic Factors

Political Institutions and Outcomes (PR vs. SMD; Pres vs. Parliamentary; Level ofDemocracy, Corruption, etc.)

All of these factors could explain why post-communist citizens hold different viewswithout recourse to idea that people’s minds were changed by actually living throughcommunism

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Post-Communist Divergence: Living in a Post-Communist Country

Demographic Factors

Economic Factors

Political Institutions and Outcomes (PR vs. SMD; Pres vs. Parliamentary; Level ofDemocracy, Corruption, etc.)

All of these factors could explain why post-communist citizens hold different viewswithout recourse to idea that people’s minds were changed by actually living throughcommunism

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Post-Communist Divergence: Living in a Post-Communist Country

Demographic Factors

Economic Factors

Political Institutions and Outcomes (PR vs. SMD; Pres vs. Parliamentary; Level ofDemocracy, Corruption, etc.)

All of these factors could explain why post-communist citizens hold different viewswithout recourse to idea that people’s minds were changed by actually living throughcommunism

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Post-Communist Divergence: Living in a Post-Communist Country

Demographic Factors

Economic Factors

Political Institutions and Outcomes (PR vs. SMD; Pres vs. Parliamentary; Level ofDemocracy, Corruption, etc.)

All of these factors could explain why post-communist citizens hold different viewswithout recourse to idea that people’s minds were changed by actually living throughcommunism

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Living in a Post-Communist Country and Legacies

Question: Which of these factors are “legacies” of communism?

Pre-communist factors are definitely not legacies of communism

Contemporaneous indicators are result of both communism and post-communism

Some more communism than post-communism (e.g., % Urban)

Some more post-communism than communism (e.g. use of PR vs. SMD voting rules)

Some probably close to equal influences (e.g., unemployment rate)

Howeer, end of communism indicators are definitely not legacies ofpost-commmunism

To the extent that we control for pre-communism adequately, can use to explore“effects of communism” in purest form

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Living in a Post-Communist Country and Legacies

Question: Which of these factors are “legacies” of communism?

Pre-communist factors are definitely not legacies of communism

Contemporaneous indicators are result of both communism and post-communism

Some more communism than post-communism (e.g., % Urban)

Some more post-communism than communism (e.g. use of PR vs. SMD voting rules)

Some probably close to equal influences (e.g., unemployment rate)

Howeer, end of communism indicators are definitely not legacies ofpost-commmunism

To the extent that we control for pre-communism adequately, can use to explore“effects of communism” in purest form

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Living in a Post-Communist Country and Legacies

Question: Which of these factors are “legacies” of communism?

Pre-communist factors are definitely not legacies of communism

Contemporaneous indicators are result of both communism and post-communism

Some more communism than post-communism (e.g., % Urban)

Some more post-communism than communism (e.g. use of PR vs. SMD voting rules)

Some probably close to equal influences (e.g., unemployment rate)

Howeer, end of communism indicators are definitely not legacies ofpost-commmunism

To the extent that we control for pre-communism adequately, can use to explore“effects of communism” in purest form

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Living in a Post-Communist Country and Legacies

Question: Which of these factors are “legacies” of communism?

Pre-communist factors are definitely not legacies of communism

Contemporaneous indicators are result of both communism and post-communism

Some more communism than post-communism (e.g., % Urban)

Some more post-communism than communism (e.g. use of PR vs. SMD voting rules)

Some probably close to equal influences (e.g., unemployment rate)

Howeer, end of communism indicators are definitely not legacies ofpost-commmunism

To the extent that we control for pre-communism adequately, can use to explore“effects of communism” in purest form

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

The Alternative Explanation: Communist Socialization

Why might we expect this to be a possibility?

Political science literature on “political socialization”

Regimes attempt to inculcate citizens with a set of values

This process can occur across multiple agents, including schools

Socialization varies across sub-sections of population

Debate ongoing about whether pre-adulthood or throughout one’s whole life

Communist regimes clearly had a socialization project: Socialist Man

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

The Alternative Explanation: Communist Socialization

Why might we expect this to be a possibility?

Political science literature on “political socialization”

Regimes attempt to inculcate citizens with a set of values

This process can occur across multiple agents, including schools

Socialization varies across sub-sections of population

Debate ongoing about whether pre-adulthood or throughout one’s whole life

Communist regimes clearly had a socialization project: Socialist Man

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

The Alternative Explanation: Communist Socialization

Why might we expect this to be a possibility?

Political science literature on “political socialization”

Regimes attempt to inculcate citizens with a set of values

This process can occur across multiple agents, including schools

Socialization varies across sub-sections of population

Debate ongoing about whether pre-adulthood or throughout one’s whole life

Communist regimes clearly had a socialization project: Socialist Man

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

The Alternative Explanation: Communist Socialization

Why might we expect this to be a possibility?

Political science literature on “political socialization”

Regimes attempt to inculcate citizens with a set of values

This process can occur across multiple agents, including schools

Socialization varies across sub-sections of population

Debate ongoing about whether pre-adulthood or throughout one’s whole life

Communist regimes clearly had a socialization project: Socialist Man

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Communism in Theory and in Practice

Communism in Theory

Political: Rule by the proletariat

Economic: State (not market) run economies

Social welfare guaranteed by the state

Social equality

Communism in Practice

Political: Rule by the communist party

Economic: State run economy, but varying degrees of market-based activity by countryand period

Real social welfare benefits, although some “more equal” than others

Record on women’s rights and minority rights mixed

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Communism in Theory and in Practice

Communism in Theory

Political: Rule by the proletariat

Economic: State (not market) run economies

Social welfare guaranteed by the state

Social equality

Communism in Practice

Political: Rule by the communist party

Economic: State run economy, but varying degrees of market-based activity by countryand period

Real social welfare benefits, although some “more equal” than others

Record on women’s rights and minority rights mixed

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

A Living Through Model

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Variables in a Living Through Communism Model

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Pulling it All Together: Conceptually

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Pulling it All Together: Empirical Strategy (Chapter 3)

Part I: Cross-Regional Analysis

1 Establish a post-communist difference (controlling for survey year) with apost-communist dummy variable

2 Add pre-communist variables: observe post-communist dummy variable

3 Add contemporaneous variables (demographics; economic conditions; politicalinstitutions and outcomes): observe post-communist dummy variable

4 Drilling down: pre-communist + end of communism variables and observepost-communist dummy variable

5 Add years of exposure (total, by regime type, by period of life) to pre-communist +contemporary demographic thus controlling for age: observe effect of years

Part II: Intra-Regional Analysis

1 Examine effect of regime level intensifying and resitance variables by interacting withyears of exposure

2 Examine effect of individual level intensifying and resistance variables by interactingwith years of exposure

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Pulling it All Together: Empirical Strategy (Chapter 3)

Part I: Cross-Regional Analysis

1 Establish a post-communist difference (controlling for survey year) with apost-communist dummy variable

2 Add pre-communist variables: observe post-communist dummy variable

3 Add contemporaneous variables (demographics; economic conditions; politicalinstitutions and outcomes): observe post-communist dummy variable

4 Drilling down: pre-communist + end of communism variables and observepost-communist dummy variable

5 Add years of exposure (total, by regime type, by period of life) to pre-communist +contemporary demographic thus controlling for age: observe effect of years

Part II: Intra-Regional Analysis

1 Examine effect of regime level intensifying and resitance variables by interacting withyears of exposure

2 Examine effect of individual level intensifying and resistance variables by interactingwith years of exposure

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Pulling it All Together: Empirical Strategy (Chapter 3)

Part I: Cross-Regional Analysis

1 Establish a post-communist difference (controlling for survey year) with apost-communist dummy variable

2 Add pre-communist variables: observe post-communist dummy variable

3 Add contemporaneous variables (demographics; economic conditions; politicalinstitutions and outcomes): observe post-communist dummy variable

4 Drilling down: pre-communist + end of communism variables and observepost-communist dummy variable

5 Add years of exposure (total, by regime type, by period of life) to pre-communist +contemporary demographic thus controlling for age: observe effect of years

Part II: Intra-Regional Analysis

1 Examine effect of regime level intensifying and resitance variables by interacting withyears of exposure

2 Examine effect of individual level intensifying and resistance variables by interactingwith years of exposure

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Pulling it All Together: Empirical Strategy (Chapter 3)

Part I: Cross-Regional Analysis

1 Establish a post-communist difference (controlling for survey year) with apost-communist dummy variable

2 Add pre-communist variables: observe post-communist dummy variable

3 Add contemporaneous variables (demographics; economic conditions; politicalinstitutions and outcomes): observe post-communist dummy variable

4 Drilling down: pre-communist + end of communism variables and observepost-communist dummy variable

5 Add years of exposure (total, by regime type, by period of life) to pre-communist +contemporary demographic thus controlling for age: observe effect of years

Part II: Intra-Regional Analysis

1 Examine effect of regime level intensifying and resitance variables by interacting withyears of exposure

2 Examine effect of individual level intensifying and resistance variables by interactingwith years of exposure

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Pulling it All Together: Empirical Strategy (Chapter 3)

Part I: Cross-Regional Analysis

1 Establish a post-communist difference (controlling for survey year) with apost-communist dummy variable

2 Add pre-communist variables: observe post-communist dummy variable

3 Add contemporaneous variables (demographics; economic conditions; politicalinstitutions and outcomes): observe post-communist dummy variable

4 Drilling down: pre-communist + end of communism variables and observepost-communist dummy variable

5 Add years of exposure (total, by regime type, by period of life) to pre-communist +contemporary demographic thus controlling for age: observe effect of years

Part II: Intra-Regional Analysis

1 Examine effect of regime level intensifying and resitance variables by interacting withyears of exposure

2 Examine effect of individual level intensifying and resistance variables by interactingwith years of exposure

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Pulling it All Together: Empirical Strategy (Chapter 3)

Part I: Cross-Regional Analysis

1 Establish a post-communist difference (controlling for survey year) with apost-communist dummy variable

2 Add pre-communist variables: observe post-communist dummy variable

3 Add contemporaneous variables (demographics; economic conditions; politicalinstitutions and outcomes): observe post-communist dummy variable

4 Drilling down: pre-communist + end of communism variables and observepost-communist dummy variable

5 Add years of exposure (total, by regime type, by period of life) to pre-communist +contemporary demographic thus controlling for age: observe effect of years

Part II: Intra-Regional Analysis

1 Examine effect of regime level intensifying and resitance variables by interacting withyears of exposure

2 Examine effect of individual level intensifying and resistance variables by interactingwith years of exposure

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Pulling it All Together: Empirical Strategy (Chapter 3)

Part I: Cross-Regional Analysis

1 Establish a post-communist difference (controlling for survey year) with apost-communist dummy variable

2 Add pre-communist variables: observe post-communist dummy variable

3 Add contemporaneous variables (demographics; economic conditions; politicalinstitutions and outcomes): observe post-communist dummy variable

4 Drilling down: pre-communist + end of communism variables and observepost-communist dummy variable

5 Add years of exposure (total, by regime type, by period of life) to pre-communist +contemporary demographic thus controlling for age: observe effect of years

Part II: Intra-Regional Analysis

1 Examine effect of regime level intensifying and resitance variables by interacting withyears of exposure

2 Examine effect of individual level intensifying and resistance variables by interactingwith years of exposure

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Pulling it All Together: Empirical Strategy (Chapter 3)

Part I: Cross-Regional Analysis

1 Establish a post-communist difference (controlling for survey year) with apost-communist dummy variable

2 Add pre-communist variables: observe post-communist dummy variable

3 Add contemporaneous variables (demographics; economic conditions; politicalinstitutions and outcomes): observe post-communist dummy variable

4 Drilling down: pre-communist + end of communism variables and observepost-communist dummy variable

5 Add years of exposure (total, by regime type, by period of life) to pre-communist +contemporary demographic thus controlling for age: observe effect of years

Part II: Intra-Regional Analysis

1 Examine effect of regime level intensifying and resitance variables by interacting withyears of exposure

2 Examine effect of individual level intensifying and resistance variables by interactingwith years of exposure

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Chapter 6: Support for State Responsibility for Social Welfare

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Chapter 6: Support for State Responsibility for Social Welfare

Expectation: Socialist Man is more supportive of state responsibility for socialwelfare

Data:

World Values Surveys: 4 waves (1989-93; 1994-8; 1999-2004; 2005-9), 211 surveys, 87countries (68/24 post-communist) supplemented with our collection of aggregate levelindicators

Hungarian Household Panel Survey: 8000 respondents from 2700 households surveyedannually from 1992-97 (IF TIME)

Dependent Variable: Social welfare support indices

Statistical Model: OLS with country-year clustered errors and equilibrated surveyweights

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Chapter 6: Support for State Responsibility for Social Welfare

Expectation: Socialist Man is more supportive of state responsibility for socialwelfare

Data:

World Values Surveys: 4 waves (1989-93; 1994-8; 1999-2004; 2005-9), 211 surveys, 87countries (68/24 post-communist) supplemented with our collection of aggregate levelindicators

Hungarian Household Panel Survey: 8000 respondents from 2700 households surveyedannually from 1992-97 (IF TIME)

Dependent Variable: Social welfare support indices

Statistical Model: OLS with country-year clustered errors and equilibrated surveyweights

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Chapter 6: Support for State Responsibility for Social Welfare

Expectation: Socialist Man is more supportive of state responsibility for socialwelfare

Data:

World Values Surveys: 4 waves (1989-93; 1994-8; 1999-2004; 2005-9), 211 surveys, 87countries (68/24 post-communist) supplemented with our collection of aggregate levelindicators

Hungarian Household Panel Survey: 8000 respondents from 2700 households surveyedannually from 1992-97 (IF TIME)

Dependent Variable: Social welfare support indices

Statistical Model: OLS with country-year clustered errors and equilibrated surveyweights

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Chapter 6: Support for State Responsibility for Social Welfare

Expectation: Socialist Man is more supportive of state responsibility for socialwelfare

Data:

World Values Surveys: 4 waves (1989-93; 1994-8; 1999-2004; 2005-9), 211 surveys, 87countries (68/24 post-communist) supplemented with our collection of aggregate levelindicators

Hungarian Household Panel Survey: 8000 respondents from 2700 households surveyedannually from 1992-97 (IF TIME)

Dependent Variable: Social welfare support indices

Statistical Model: OLS with country-year clustered errors and equilibrated surveyweights

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Living a Post-Communist Country Control Variable in Main (WVS) Models

Pre-communist variables: Urbanization in the 1920s; Landlocked; Distance fromequator; Distance from Greenwich; British colony; French colony; Spanish colony;German empire; Habsburg empire; Russian empire; Ottoman empire; OtherEuropean colony; Mean elevation; Log GDP/Capita 1914; Pre-WWI regime;Non-independent pre-WWI; Muslim majority country; Christian majority country

End of Communism Variables: Urbanization 1989; Primary school enrolment; GDPper energy unit; Industry as % of GDP; Literacy 1989; Log GDP/capita 1989; ethnicfractionalization

Contemporaneous Demographics: Post-secondary education; Secondary education;Household income; Town resident; City resident; Large city resident; Sex; Age;Religious attendance; Atheist

Contemporaneous Economic Conditions: GDP change; Unemployment; Loginflation; GDP as % of 1989 GDP; Income inequality

Contemporaneous Political Institutions and Outcomes: Corruption; SocialSpending/GDP; Democracy (Freedom House); Log age of democracy; ElectoralRules(PR, Mixed, Majoritarian); Governing System (Pres, Parl, Mixed)

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Analysis: Country-Level Support for State Provided Social Welfare

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Analysis: Living in a Post-Communist Country and Support for StateProvided Social Welfare

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Analysis: Years of Exposure and Support for State Provided Social Welfare

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Analysis: Exposure and Welfare State Support: Country Moderators

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Analysis: Exposure and Welfare State Support: Individual Moderators

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Analysis: Summary of Interactive Effects

Catholics and Muslims have more resistance

No real effect for church (mosque) attendence

No effect for education

Larger socialization effects among urban residents

No effect on gender

Country level: stronger where communism imposed

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Analysis: Summary of Interactive Effects

Catholics and Muslims have more resistance

No real effect for church (mosque) attendence

No effect for education

Larger socialization effects among urban residents

No effect on gender

Country level: stronger where communism imposed

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Temporal Effects (Ch. 8): Overall, remarkably consistent

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Temporal Effects: Cohorts

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

New Challenge

If it is exposure, what’s the mechanism?

Parental socialization?

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

HHS: Family Socialization in Hungary

Family socialization –> transmit parental values to children

Enforce vs. counter official regime socialization

Data: Hungarian Household Panel Survey

6 wave panel design (1992-97)

Interviews with all HH members (age 16+)

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

HHS: Parental unemployment attitudes transmission

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

HHS: Parental unemployment attitudes transmission

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

HHS: Parental unemployment attitudes transmission

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

HHS: Parental unemployment attitudes transmission

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

HHS: Parental unemployment attitudes transmission

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Conclusions: Social Welfare

Living in a post-communist country variables only explain a bit of thepost-communist ”excess” welfare state support

Most important seem to be post-communist political institutions and performance

Pre-communist controls actually enhance the democratic deficit

Left-wing non-democratic countries –> more supporative of social welfare

Living through communism, however, explains a great deal

But fairly uniform across regime type

Evidence of variation in intensity of exposure

Adult exposure > childhood exposure

Urban residents

Religion matters as well

Less important among Catholics and Muslims

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Conclusions: Social Welfare

Living in a post-communist country variables only explain a bit of thepost-communist ”excess” welfare state support

Most important seem to be post-communist political institutions and performance

Pre-communist controls actually enhance the democratic deficit

Left-wing non-democratic countries –> more supporative of social welfare

Living through communism, however, explains a great deal

But fairly uniform across regime type

Evidence of variation in intensity of exposure

Adult exposure > childhood exposure

Urban residents

Religion matters as well

Less important among Catholics and Muslims

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Conclusions: Social Welfare

Living in a post-communist country variables only explain a bit of thepost-communist ”excess” welfare state support

Most important seem to be post-communist political institutions and performance

Pre-communist controls actually enhance the democratic deficit

Left-wing non-democratic countries –> more supporative of social welfare

Living through communism, however, explains a great deal

But fairly uniform across regime type

Evidence of variation in intensity of exposure

Adult exposure > childhood exposure

Urban residents

Religion matters as well

Less important among Catholics and Muslims

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Conclusions: Social Welfare

Living in a post-communist country variables only explain a bit of thepost-communist ”excess” welfare state support

Most important seem to be post-communist political institutions and performance

Pre-communist controls actually enhance the democratic deficit

Left-wing non-democratic countries –> more supporative of social welfare

Living through communism, however, explains a great deal

But fairly uniform across regime type

Evidence of variation in intensity of exposure

Adult exposure > childhood exposure

Urban residents

Religion matters as well

Less important among Catholics and Muslims

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Conclusions (continued)

Strong parental socialization effects (in Hungary)

Stronger for minors

Stronger for non-mainstream (“counter-current”) views

Weaker for CP Members

Remarkably Consistent Overall Temporal Effect, but varies by cohort

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Conclusions (continued)

Strong parental socialization effects (in Hungary)

Stronger for minors

Stronger for non-mainstream (“counter-current”) views

Weaker for CP Members

Remarkably Consistent Overall Temporal Effect, but varies by cohort

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Conclusions (continued)

Strong parental socialization effects (in Hungary)

Stronger for minors

Stronger for non-mainstream (“counter-current”) views

Weaker for CP Members

Remarkably Consistent Overall Temporal Effect, but varies by cohort

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Overall: Little support for living in a post-communist country model

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Overall: Adult more than early – except gender

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Overall: Variation over time

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Conclusions: Book

Much less support for Living in a post-communist country than expected

Only political context seems to reduce gap

Consistent support for Living through communism (except for gender equality)

Gender equality consistently different

Adult exposure >= childhood exposure except for gender equality

Modifiers produce nuance, but not too much systematic

Catholic increases resistence; urban increases intensity

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017

Thank you!

Pop-Eleches and Tucker (Princeton and NYU) Communism’s Shadow May 8, 2017