conducting climate change risk and vulnerability assessments in rural mountain communities in the...

Climate Change Risk and

Vulnerability Assessment: Examples from Rural Mountain Communities in the

Columbia Basin Region of Canada

Jeff Zukiwsky

Zumundo Consultants

Fernie, Canada

September 28, 2010

Overview

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

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Columbia Basin Trust (CBT)

Communities Adapting to Climate Change (CACC) Initiative

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

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Adapting to Climate Change

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

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CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin,

Canada

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1. Get Started

2. Learn About Climate Change

3. Identify Community Priorities

4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities

5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions

6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan

CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin,

Canada

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1. Get Started

• Appoint a coordinator

• Establish a local steering committee

2. Learn About Climate Change

3. Identify Community Priorities

4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities

5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions

6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan

CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin,

Canada

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1. Get Started

2. Learn About Climate Change

• Local observations

• Historical patterns

• Future projections

3. Identify Community Priorities

4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities

5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions

6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan

Annual mean temperature, 1961-1990 (left) and CGCM3-A2 / CRCM4 downscaled scenario, 2041-2070 (right)

(Source: Trevor Murdock, PCIC)

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin,

Canada

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CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin,

Canada

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1. Get Started

2. Learn About Climate Change

3. Identify Community Priorities

• Engage Community

• Map climate change impacts

4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities

5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions

6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan

Mapping Climate Change Impacts

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

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CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin,

Canada

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1. Get Started

2. Learn About Climate Change

3. Identify Community Priorities

4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities

• Risk- based Approach

• Combined Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions

6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan

Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

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Risk Management Approach

Risk = Probability x Consequence

Co

nse

qu

en

ce High

Low

Unlikely Likely

Probability

Negligible- No action required

Low- Some actions (public education) may be desirable

Moderate- Some controls required to reduce risk to lower levels

High - High priority control measures required

Extreme - Immediate controls required

Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

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Combined Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

Vulnerability = Sensitivity x Adaptive Capacity

Risk = Probability x Consequence

Rate each ‘impact’ as low, medium, or high

Low

Vulnerability

High

Vulnerability

High Risk May be priority planning areas Should be priority planning

areas

Low Risk Are unlikely to be priority

planning areas May be priority planning areas

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

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Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

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District of Elkford

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Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

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• Priorities:

• Flooding

• Wildfires

• 1 day workshop (consultant

facilitated) with City staff, elected

officials, scientific experts, and

community members

• Combined Risk and Vulnerability

Assessment

• Vulnerability = Sensitivity x

Adaptive Capacity

• Risk = Vulnerability x

Probability

Vu

lnerab

ilit

y

Damage to bridge

Flooding of buildings and land

Pumphouse flooding

Death/injury to river users

Stormwater managemen

t stress

Probability (20 year planning period)

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

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City of Kimberley

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

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3 Planning Priorities

1. Water and Forests

2. Municipal Infrastructure

3. Tourism

Climate

stress

+ Non-

climate

stresses

= Potential

impacts

Adaptive capacity Are

we

vulne

rable?

Possible

actions Can we

do it?

Challeng

es/

Barriers

Timeframe – Now + 5 years

Future Timeframe – 2020 to 2050

• Partnership with UBC - Climate

Change Impact Visualization

• Working group approach:

• Working group established for

each priority area (5-8 people)

• Vulnerability assessment based on

worksheets developed by each

working group

• 2-3 working group meetings to

assessment vulnerability

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

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City of Rossland

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

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• Combined Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

• Half day workshop

• 3 different colour dots:

• Present

• 20 years in the future

• 50 years in the future

• Result – Low, medium, or high rating for risk and vulnerability

Planning Area Future Climate Change

Impact/Opportunity

Sensitivity

(High, Medium, Low)

Adaptive Capacity

(High, Medium, Low)

Vulnerability

(Sensitivity x

Adaptive Capacity)

Food Security Extreme events resulting in road

closures and regional food

shortage (filled in for example)

Medium – Highway

crews and transport

trucks are ready to deal

with winter storms; but

temporary road closures

have occurred in the

past.

Medium – There are

several transportation

routes including air in an

emergency; grocery

stores have some

supplies as do individual

households

Medium

CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin,

Canada

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1. Get Started

2. Learn About Climate Change

3. Identify Community Priorities

4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities

5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions

6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan

Summary: Challenges

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

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Multitude of methodologies for community-based RVA

Integration of adaptation strategy into existing policy and planning framework

Incorporating climate change opportunities into adaptation strategy - - - “RISK”

Vulnerability assessment approach is overly „academic‟ and complicated Is it valid?

Summary: Lessons Learned

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

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Communities are highly flexible:

Ability to interpret complex assessment criteria and make it work for rural communities

Community-driven approach:

Local steering committees

Community involvement

Mainstreaming:

Increased awareness and understanding of climate change impacts = integrating climate change impacts and adaptations into day-to-day planning and operations

Conclusion

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

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• Process Matters!

• Regardless of outcome, risk/

vulnerability assessment was an

extremely important learning and

capacity building tool

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Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

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Thank

You

Selected References

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Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

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• Australian Government (2008) Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government. Retrieved November 22, 2009 from: http://www.climatechange.gov.au/community/local-government/risk-management.aspx

• Black, Bruce, & Egener (2009) Adapting to Climate Change: A Risk-Based Guide for Alberta Municipalities. Retrieved November 22, 2009 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/pdf/176a_e.pdf

• Carter, Parry, Nishioka , & Harasawa (1994) Technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations. University College London, England and Centre for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Japan, 59 pp

• Harford, D. (2008) Climate Change Adaptation: Planning for BC. Retrieved from Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions website: www.pics.uvic.ca/research.php

• Hilson, D (2002) Extending the risk process to manage opportunities. International Journal of Project Management, 20, 235–240.

• Noble, Bruce, Egener, (2005) An Overview of the Risk Management Approach to Climate Change in Canada. Retrieved March 11, 2010 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/pdf/NobleBruceEgener2005_e.pdf

• NRCAN (Natural Resources Canada) (2007) From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate. Chapter 8 –British Columbia. Retrieved November 28, 2009 from http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php

• Parzen, J. (ed). (2008). Chicago Area Climate Change Quick Guide: Adapting to the Physical Impacts of Climate Change. For Municipalities and Other Organizations. Retrieved March 9, 2010 from: http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org/filebin/pdf/Chicago_Quick_Guide_to_Climate_Change_Preparation_June_2008.pdf

• Schneider, Semenov, & Patwardhan, (2007) Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Chapter 19, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp

• Snover, Whitely Binder, Lopez, Willmott, Kay, Howell, & Simmonds. (2007). Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments. In association with and published by ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, Oakland, CA.

• Halifax Regional Municipality (2007) Climate Change: Developer's Risk Management Guide.