country risk assessment map • 2nd quarter 2018

UNITED STATES

MEXICO

ALGERIA

ICELAND

CCO

MALI

TUNISIA

COSTA RICA

PANAMA

REPUBLIC

HAITI

CUBA

GUATEMALAEL SALVADOR

NICARAGUA

HONDURAS

JAMAICA

GUINEA

SIERRA LEONE

LIBERIA GHANA

MAURITIUS

ILE DE LA RÉUNION

GROENLAND(DENMARK)

BURKINAFASO

SENEGALCABO VERDE

ITALY

SPAINPORTUGAL

FRANCE

GERMANY

SWITZERLAND

CANADAIRELAND

UNITED KINGDOM

BELGIUM

BELIZE

BRAZIL

ARGENTINA

PERU

BOLIVIA

VENEZUELA

ECUADOR

KENYA

DR CONGO

SOUTH AFRICA

LESOTHO

ANGOLA

NAMIBIA

ZAMBIA

MOZAMBIQUE

COLOMBIAFRENCHGUYANA

DOMINICAN

GUYANASURINAME

BURUNDI

UGANDA

MALAWI

ZIMBABWE

BOTSWANAPARAGUAY

CHILE

URUGUAY

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

LIBYAEGYPT

SUDAN

MADAGASCAR

NIGER

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

ETHIOPIA

TANZANIA

MAURITANIA

GABON

NIGERIA

CHAD

IVORYCOAST

TOGO

SAO TOME& PRINCIPE

RWANDA

ERITREA

CAMEROON

BENIN

CONGO

SAUDIARABIA

PAKISTAN

OMAN

YEMEN

IRAQIRAN

DJIBOUTI

KUWAIT

UNITEDARABEMIRATES

AFGHANISTAN

KAZAKHSTAN

INDIA

TURKEY

BANGLADESH

ISRAEL

JORDAN

SYRIALEBANON

CYPRUS

NEPAL

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTANTURKMENISTAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

BAHRAINQATAR

UZBEKISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

HUNGARY

POLAND

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

BOSNIA

GREECE

AUSTRIA

SLOVENIA

CZECHREPUBLIC

SLOVAKIA

NORWAY

SWEDEN

FINLAND

UKRAINE

LITHUANIA

LATVIA

ESTONIA

BELARUS

CHINA

INDONESIA

PHILIPPINES

MORO

SRI LANKA

MYANMAR

VIETNAMCAMBODIA

LAOS

MALAYSIA

TAIWAN

MALDIVES

HONG KONG

SINGAPORE

THAILAND

RUSSIA

AUSTRALIA

MONGOLIA

JAPAN

PAPUANEW GUINEA

NEW ZEALAND

SOUTH KOREA

GUINEA-BISSAU

SERBIA

MALTA

PALESTINIANTERRITORIES

NORTH KOREA

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

TIMOR-LESTE

SOUTHSUDAN

MOLDOVIA

COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 2nd QUARTER 2018

160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASSA UNIQUE METHODOLOGY• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk

• Comprehension of the business environment

• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience

TURKEY

GERMANY

FRANCE

ITALY

SPAIN

UNITED KINGDOM

FINLAND

SWEDEN

DENMARK

PORTUGAL

ICELAND

IRELAND

RUSSIA

LITHUANIA

LATVIA

ROMANIA

POLAND

UKRAINE

BULGARIA

HUNGARY

SLOVAKIA

CZECHREPUBLIC

GREECE

ALBANIA

MONTENEGRO

BOSNIA

CROATIA

SERBIA

LUXEMBOURG

ESTONIA

BELARUS

MALTA

CYPRUS

MOLDOVA

BELGIUM

NORWAY

SLOVENIA

MACEDONIA

SWITZERLAND AUSTRIA

NETHERLANDS

BUSINESS DEFAULTING RISK

EXTREME

EA1 A2 A3 A4 B C DVERY LOW LOW SATISFACTORY REASONABLE FAIRLY HIGH HIGH VERY HIGH

UPGRADES DOWNGRADES

BB

A4

A3

C

C

C

BOMANMALAYSIA CARGENTINA INDIA B ITALY A4 SRI LANKA

• The recent increase in oil prices is expected to improve fiscal balances, as well as growth performance in 2018 (up to 2.5%) & 2019 (3.2%);• Oman’s fiscal breakeven point fell to USD 77 in 2018.

• The strong economic momentum seen in 2017 is set to continue in 2018;

• New administration is focusing on anti-corruption measures, boosting inflows, and strengthening the currency.

• The recent deterioration of financial conditions in emerging markets forced a faster tightening of macro policies. Argentina’s peso is the world’s worst-performing currency (-33% year-to-date);

• Activity should be impacted by large twin deficits, sticky inflation, high interest rates and greater budgetary restrictions.

• The current account deficit is likely to worsen (to -1.8% in FY 2018), due to the growing trade deficit;

•The government deficit (-3.5% in Q1) is expected to widen to 4%, provoked by higher government spending ahead of general elections in 2019.

• Despite recent political turmoil, economic momentum seems to remain positive for the time being;• Business confidence has started to weaken.

• Particularly low growth results in 2017;

• The strong depreciation of the rupee since the beginning of 2018 has increased the country’s burden of external debt servicing and has put the foreign reserves under pressure;

• Rise of ethnical tensions and declaration of a state of emergency.

CA3 TURKEY C

• The sharp depreciation of the lira since the start of 2018 will hit the private sector’s balance sheets and payment terms, and will give rise to higher financing costs;• Higher import costs will mostly affect agri-food, metals, chemicals, automotive, textile and paper sectors.