credit suisse, us economics digest, oct 11, 2013. "the 2014 fomc: a new cast of characters"
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7/27/2019 Credit Suisse, US Economics Digest, Oct 11, 2013. "The 2014 FOMC: A New Cast of Characters".
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US Economics Digest
The 2014 FOMC: A New Cast of CharactersPresident Obama met market expectations this week by nominating Fed Vice
Chair Janet Yellen to succeed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Assuming Yellen is
confirmed by the Senate, she will begin a four-year term as Chair of the
Federal Reserve on February 1, 2014.
This transition in leadership is but one of several changes to the Federal
Reserve that we will see in 2014. Within the next few months, the composition
of the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to look very different than it
does today.
We already know of three imminent vacancies on the seven-member Fed
Board of Governors and the pending retirement of one Fed district bank
president. More vacancies are possible as 2014 progresses.
These changes all come against the backdrop of the annual rotation of district
bank presidents into voting seats on the FOMC. The 2014 bank president
voting contingent is likely to be more hawkish than it has been this year.
In another change, the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation requires that a
second Fed Vice Chair be named, in addition to the individual who eventually
assumes Yellens current role. The responsibility of the second Vice Chair will
be to focus on issues of bank supervision.
In this research note, we discuss the above changes in turn. We also provide
our hawk/dove scale from September 24, presenting our views on the policypredispositions of officials on the Federal Open Market Committee.
Exhibit 1: The Federal Open Market Committee in 2014
Credit Suisse forecasts
Board of Governors* District Bank Presidents
Janet Yellen, Fed Chairman Boston (Eric Rosengren)
Vacant, Fed Vice Chairman New York (William Dudley), FOMC Vice Chair*
D aniel T arullo , F ed Vice Cha irman for Supervision Philadelphia (C har les Plosser) *
Je rome Pow ell ( term ex pires 1 /31/14) C lev eland (Sandra Pianalto's successor )*
Jeremy Stein (may return to Harvard) Richmond (Jeffrey Lacker)
Vacant Atlanta (Dennis Lockhart)
Vacant Chicago (Charles Evans)St. Louis (James Bullard)
Minneapolis (Narayana Kocherlakota)*
Kansas City (Esther George)
Dallas (Richard Fisher)*
San Francisco (John Williams)
Source: Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse * = Voting member ini 2014
Research Analysts
Neal Soss
212 325 3335
neal.soss@credit-suisse.com
Dana Saporta
212 538 3163
dana.saporta@credit-suisse.com
Jill Brown
212 325 1578
jill.brown@credit-suisse.com
11 October 2013Economics Research
http://www.credit-suisse.com/researchandanalytics
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7/27/2019 Credit Suisse, US Economics Digest, Oct 11, 2013. "The 2014 FOMC: A New Cast of Characters".
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The 2014 FOMC: A New Cast of Characters
President Obama met market expectations this week by nominating Fed Vice Chair Janet
Yellen to succeed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Assuming Yellen is confirmed by the Senate,
she will begin a four-year term as Chair of the Federal Reserve on February 1, 2014.
This transition in leadership is but one of several changes to the Federal Reserve that we
will see in 2014. Within the next few months, the composition of the Federal Open MarketCommittee is likely to look very different than it does today.
We already know of three imminent vacancies on the seven-member Fed Board of
Governors and the pending retirement of one Fed district bank president. More vacancies
are possible as 2014 progresses. These changes all come against the backdrop of the
annual rotation of district bank presidents into voting seats on the FOMC.
In another change, the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation requires that a second Fed
Vice Chair be named, in addition to the individual who eventually assumes Yellens current
role. The responsibility of the second Vice Chair will be to focus on issues of financial
supervision.
Below we consider each of these changes in turn.
An Historic Appointment at a Critical TimeIts official, if not surprising. The nomination of Janet Yellen as Fed Chair came as a relief
to markets that have been digesting a stream of bad news otherwise, mainly concerning
fiscal gridlock in DC.
If confirmed, Dr. Yellen will be the first woman to serve as Chairman in the 100-year
history of the Federal Reserve System. And she will be the first Vice Chair of the Fed
Board to be promoted to the Chairmans seat. Also, she would be the first Democrat to
head the Fed since Paul Volckers chairmanship (1979-87).
Exhibit 2: A Fed Chairman Chronology, 1914-Present
Term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve
Chair Name From Until
Charles S. Hamlin August 10, 1914 August 19, 1916
William P. G. Harding August 10, 1916 August 9, 1922
Daniel R. Crissinger May 1, 1923 September 15, 1927
Roy A. Young October 4, 1927 August 31, 1930
Eugene Meyer September 16, 1930 May 10, 1933
Eugene R. Black May 19, 1933 August 15, 1934
Marriner S. Eccles November 15, 1934 January 31, 1948
Thomas B. McCabe April 15, 1948 March 31, 1951
William McChesney Martin, Jr. April 2, 1951 January 31, 1970
Arthur F. Burns February 1, 1970 January 31, 1978
G. William Miller March 8, 1978 August 6, 1979
Paul A. Volcker August 6, 1979 August 11, 1987
Alan Greenspan August 11, 1987 January 31, 2006Ben Bernanke February 1, 2006 January 31, 2014
Janet Yellen (nominated) February 1, 2014 NA
Source: Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse
The next step is for Yellen to testify at a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking
Committee. (Currently, the Committee is comprised of 12 Democrats and 10 Republicans.)
The Committee will then take one of four steps: report the nomination to the Senate
favorably, unfavorably, without recommendation, or it may choose to take no action.
Assuming the Banking Committee approves Yellen, then the vote goes to the full Senate.
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The Senate is composed of 52 Democrats, 2 Independents (who caucus with the
Democrats) and 46 Republicans. A simple majority is needed to confirm a presidential
nominee, but 60 votes are needed to close the debate on the nomination. Our expectation
is that Yellen will be confirmed, but not without dissension from those Republicans who
are concerned that she is too dovish.
The transition from the Bernanke Fed to the Yellen Fed likely will be a smooth one. An
FOMC veteran, Yellen served as a governor from 1994 to 1997, as president of the SanFrancisco Fed from 2004 to 2010, and as Fed Vice Chair since October 2010.
Yellen, also an academic, could be expected to largely continue Bernankes efforts to
boost growth and employment by utilizing the Feds balance sheet and communications.
She is widely respected within the Federal Reserve System.1
Her rhetoric occasionally
comes across as more dovish than Bernankes, and it is reasonable to wonder whether, as
Chair, she would tolerate a slightly higher rate of inflation in pursuit of job growth. That
said, Yellen has not wavered in her public support for the Feds 2% inflation target.
We think Yellen was among those arguing against tapering at the September 17-18 FOMC
meeting, and she is probably nowhere close to contemplating actually tightening policy via
rate hikes. However, there is precedent (albeit in the mid 1990s) for her sounding hawkish
warnings when she is uncomfortable with the inflation outlook. We believe Yellen will be
careful not to remove accommodation prematurely, but it would be a mistake to think ofher views as being static.
Some have asked whether Yellen or Bernanke will take the lead role at the next three
FOMC meetings. In practice, we dont think it would matter, as the resultant policy would
probably be the same either way. That said, Yellen certainly should not be seen as
assuming a chairman-type role before her Senate confirmation, which may not come until
after the October 29-30 meeting and possibly after the December 17-18 meeting.
At its first policy meeting each year, the FOMC names an FOMC Chairman (almost always
the Fed Chairman) and an FOMC Vice Chairman (almost always the NY Fed President).
It is possible that Bernanke will be named FOMC Chairman through January 31, and then
Yellen will be named FOMC Chairman for the balance of the year.
Alternatively, even if she is not yet sworn in, the FOMC in January may name Yellen theFOMC Chairman for the full year. In that case, she would call the shots at the Committee
meeting on January 28-29.
A Yellen chairmanship would leave open her Vice Chair seat on the Board of Governors.
Another seat was vacated when Governor Duke left the Fed at the end of August. And
Governor Raskin, who abstained from the September 18 FOMC vote, is about to leave the
Fed to join the Treasury. So, that makes three of seven slots to be filled (Exhibit 3).
Whats more, Fed Governor Powells term expires on January 31, 2014. He probably will
be encouraged to stay on indefinitely, until a replacement is found. (That is what Governor
Duke did, as her term expired back in 2012.) And our understanding is that Fed Governor
Stein risks losing his tenure at Harvard if he does not return by May. Suffice it to say, the
Fed Board of Governors may look very different by next spring.
1 In his book, "A Term at the Fed: An Insider's View," former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer singles out Janet Yellen as one of thefew FOMC participants who had the power to persuade then-Chairman Alan Greenspan.
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Exhibit 3: The Federal Open Market Committee in 2014
Credit Suisse forecasts
Board of Governors* District Bank Presidents
Janet Yellen, Fed Chairman Boston (Eric Rosengren)
Vacant, Fed Vice Chairman New York (William Dudley), FOMC Vice Chair*Daniel Tarullo, Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Philadelphia (Char les Plosser )*
Jerome Powell ( term ex pires 1/31/14) Clev eland (Sandra Pianalto's successor )*
Jeremy Stein (may return to Harvard) Richmond (Jeffrey Lacker)
Vacant Atlanta (Dennis Lockhart)
Vacant Chicago (Charles Evans)
St. Louis (James Bullard)
Minneapolis (Narayana Kocherlakota)*
Kansas City (Esther George)
Dallas (Richard Fisher)*
San Francisco (John Williams)
Source: Credit Suisse, Federal Reserve * = Voting member in 2014
These current and prospective Board vacancies arent mere curiosities. By law, it takes
five members of the Board of Governors to constitute a quorum. So, we should be hearing
news from the White House within weeks regarding at least one more Fed Board
appointment.
Finally, Cleveland Fed President Pianalto, a voting member on the FOMC in 2014, has
announced her intention to retire early next year. We're told that Pianalto intends to stay at
the Cleveland Fed until her successor is in place. If she were to leave before then, the
Cleveland Fed's First Vice President would serve in her place (and vote at FOMC
meetings) in the interim.
(In contrast to Fed governors, who are appointed by the President and subject to Senate
confirmation, district bank Fed presidents are chosen by their individual banks Boards of
Directors with a degree of oversight from the Federal Reserve Board.)
The Annual District Bank Shuffle
The first FOMC meeting of each calendar year (e.g., January 28-29, 2014) features the
annual rotation of district bank presidents into voting seats on the committee. On balance,
we expect the bank president voting contingent on the 2014 FOMC to be its most hawkish
since 2011. This would be due primarily to the rotation of two vocal hawks into voting
seats. At least one formal dissent per meeting is likely in 2014.
The Procedure All seven Federal Reserve Board governors and the 12 district bank
presidents are members of the FOMC and participate in the committee's eight annual
meetings. Although the opinion of every member is solicited at every meeting, only a total
of 12 FOMC officials have a vote on monetary policy in any given year. The seven Fed
governors always have a vote, and the president of the New York Fed is ex officio vicechairman of the FOMC and a permanent voter (Exhibit 4). The remaining four votes are
distributed among the other 11 district bank presidents on a rotating basis.
The voting rotation of the bank presidents outside the New York district is broken down
into four groupings. The Chicago Fed and Cleveland Fed presidents vote every other year.
Presidents in the remaining nine regions vote every third year.
The table below shows the rotation of voting presidents for 2012 through 2015:
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Exhibit 4: The Annual FOMC Voting Seat Shuffle
Federal Open Market Committee District Bank rotation
Rotation 2012 2013 2014 2015
New York Dudley (NY) Dudley (NY) Dudley (NY) Dudley (NY)
Boston Philadelphia Richmond Lacker (Richmond) Rosengren (Boston) Plosser (Philly) Lacker (Richmond)
Chicago
Cleveland Pianalto (Cleveland) Evans (Chicago) Pianalto (Cleveland) Evans (Chicago)
Kansas City Minneapolis San Francisco Williams (San Francisco) George (Kansas City) Kocherlakota (Minneapolis) Williams (San Francisco)
St. Louis Dallas Atlanta Lockhart (Atlanta) Bullard (St. Louis) Fisher (Dallas) Lockhart (Atlanta)
Source: Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse
The Personalities In general, the rotation of voting members has an impact on the
implementation of monetary policy only if the incoming presidents carry decidedly different
views toward policy from the outgoing presidents. After all, even though he (or she) has
only one vote, the chairmans influence often guides the collective thinking of the rest of
the committee. Most FOMC members particularly the other six governors and NY Fed
president tend to side with the chairman. (At the moment, this probably reflects their
assessment of the economy and the appropriate stance of monetary policy. But even more
generally, the Feds organization chart encourages considerable deference to the
chairmans views.)
Two frequent dissenters with stringent anti-inflation views will have votes in 2014
Charles Plosser (Philadelphia) and Richard Fisher (Dallas). Their positions as voters will
more than offset Esther Georges (Kansas City Fed) loss of a vote next year. This year
was Georges first term as an FOMC voter, and she has dissented in favor of tighter policy
in every policy meeting to date six so far.
Also moving into voting positions next year will be Narayana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis)
and Sandra Pianalto (Cleveland). Once counted among the hawks, Kocherlakota is now
one of the most dovish of the district bank presidents. Pianalto, more neutral in her policy
leanings, never dissented in her five previous voting terms.
When monetary policy in the US is steady and routine for an extended period of time, the
individual personalities on the FOMC fade in importance. Dissents are rare, andpolicymakers rhetoric in public speeches and congressional testimonies take on fairly
uniform characteristics. Fed-speak fades as a motivator of market moves. But in times like
the past few years, when policy has been in flux and anything but conventional, having
insight into the thinking of each policymaker can be beneficial.
Generally, we are uncomfortable applying blanket labels to policymakers. To call someone
a hawk (focused more on the Feds price stability mandate) or a dove (more concerned
with maximum, sustainable employment) is to suggest his or her views are inflexible in the
face of evolving economic and financial market conditions. For the most part, this is clearly
not the case. But, as former Kansas City Fed President Hoenig himself once observed,
these labels are often used as a quick way to characterize Reserve Bank presidents'
opinions about future monetary policy.
With the above caveat in mind, we briefly characterize the backgrounds and views ofincoming 2014 voters below, fully recognizing that we cannot do them justice in a few
sentences:
Sandra Pianalto (Cleveland) has been president of the Cleveland Fed for over a decade,
making her the longest serving member of the FOMC. She joined the bank as an
economist back in 1983. As previously noted, Pianalto has indicated her intention to retire
in early 2014; so, her successor will inherit her voting seat on the FOMC.
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Pianalto has been decidedly moderate in her views, having always voted with the majority.
However, in anOctober 8 speech, she stressed her desire to scale back QE, going so far
as to say she believed the FOMC should have tapered at September 17-18 meeting:
While to date the risks have mostly remained theoretical, I remain convinced that we need
to be cautious in our expansion of asset purchases , For me the improvement in labor
markets seemed substantial enough to support a scaling back of the asset-purchase
program at last months policy meeting.
Narayana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis)has served as his banks president since October
8, 2009. Before his appointment as president, Kocherlakota was a member of the
Minneapolis Feds Research staff, as well as a Research consultant for the Bank.
Kocherlakota has switched his vantage considerably since he was a voting member of the
FOMC in 2011. Three years ago, Kocherlakota was seen as one of the more hawkish
members of the FOMC, dissenting two times in favor of tighter policy. However, by
September 2012, his views had changed considerably:
As long as the FOMC is continuing to satisfy its price stability mandate, it should keepthe fed funds rate extraordinarily low until the unemployment rate has fallen below 5.5
percent.
Today, one could even argue that Kocherlakota defines the dovish end of the FOMCpolicy bias spectrum. In anOctober 4 speech, he took a page from ECB GovernorDraghis book, telling his audience the FOMC needs to do whatever it takes.
Over six years after the national unemployment rate first began its ascent, the labormarket remains disturbingly weak. The good news is that, with low inflation, the FOMC hasconsiderable monetary policy capacity at its disposal with which to address this problem.
The FOMCs test today is to figure out how best to deploy this capacity. The answer lies intaking two steps. The first step is to communicate that our goal is to accomplish a fastreturn to maximal employment while keeping inflation close to, although possibly
temporarily above, the target of 2 percent. The second step is to do whatever it takes, onan ongoing basis, to achieve that goal.
Charles Plosser (Philadelphia) joined the federal reserve bank in 2006 and is in the
midst of serving his second term as president and CEO of the bank. Plosser was
instrumental in crafting the Feds current communication strategy of transparency.
Plosser is known to be a more hawkish member of the FOMC. He has been very vocal
against expanding the central banks balance sheet. The last time he was a voting
member of the FOMC was in 2011, when he dissented twice in favor of tighter monetary
policy (along with Kocherlakota and Fisher). Recently he has spoken out about putting an
end to QE, criticizing the Committee for not taking action in September. On October 8,
Plosser said the following:
To delay tapering of our current asset purchase scheme without clear and significant
departures from prior guidelines suggested the FOMC was changing the goalposts and
deviating from Junes forward guidance. This undermines the credibility of the committee
and reduces the effectiveness of forward guidance as a policy tool.
Based on this outlook and the improvement in labor market conditions, I believe it would
be appropriate for the Fed to begin to reduce the pace at which we are expanding our
balance sheet and to bring the purchase program to a close. We missed an excellent
opportunity to begin this tapering process in September.
http://www.clevelandfed.org/For_the_Public/News_and_Media/Speeches/2013/Pianalto_20131008.cfmhttp://www.clevelandfed.org/For_the_Public/News_and_Media/Speeches/2013/Pianalto_20131008.cfmhttp://www.clevelandfed.org/For_the_Public/News_and_Media/Speeches/2013/Pianalto_20131008.cfmhttps://www.minneapolisfed.org/news_events/pres/speech_display.cfm?id=4952https://www.minneapolisfed.org/news_events/pres/speech_display.cfm?id=4952https://plus.csintra.net/researchplus/CSPlusPageAction?pageId=RESEARCH_ARTICLE&rp_ravWindow=true&rp_docId=1022503581http://www.minneapolisfed.org/news_events/pres/speech_display.cfm?id=5185https://plus.csintra.net/researchplus/CSPlusPageAction?pageId=RESEARCH_ARTICLE&rp_ravWindow=true&rp_docId=1022503581http://www.minneapolisfed.org/news_events/pres/speech_display.cfm?id=5185https://plus.csintra.net/researchplus/CSPlusPageAction?pageId=RESEARCH_ARTICLE&rp_ravWindow=true&rp_docId=1022503581http://www.minneapolisfed.org/news_events/pres/speech_display.cfm?id=5185http://www.phil.frb.org/publications/speeches/plosser/2013/10-08-13_johnstown-chamber-of-commerce.cfmhttp://www.phil.frb.org/publications/speeches/plosser/2013/10-08-13_johnstown-chamber-of-commerce.cfmhttp://www.phil.frb.org/publications/speeches/plosser/2013/10-08-13_johnstown-chamber-of-commerce.cfmhttps://plus.csintra.net/researchplus/CSPlusPageAction?pageId=RESEARCH_ARTICLE&rp_ravWindow=true&rp_docId=1022503581http://www.minneapolisfed.org/news_events/pres/speech_display.cfm?id=5185https://www.minneapolisfed.org/news_events/pres/speech_display.cfm?id=4952http://www.clevelandfed.org/For_the_Public/News_and_Media/Speeches/2013/Pianalto_20131008.cfm -
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Richard Fisher (Dallas) has served as bank president since April 4, 2005. Before his
appointment as president, Fisher served various roles in government, business and
academia. Fisher was a voting member on the FOMC in both 2008 and 2011.
Fisher is considered one of the more hawkish members of the FOMC; he has long been
opposed to recent easy money policies. In voting on the FOMC in 2011 Fisher, along with
Kocherlakota and Plosser, dissented at two meetings, including the one that implemented
operation twist. In recent speeches, Fisher has been criticizing the Fed for not takingaction in September, especially due to the uncertainty it has created around future policy.
In anOctober 3speech he said:
the recent decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to maintain thepace of its large-scale asset purchases in the face of a generally improving labor marketoutlook and a widespread perception within financial markets, right or wrong, that the Fedhad telegraphed a dialing back of the rate of purchases may have increased uncertaintyabout the future path of monetary policy. That was one argument raised against thedecision not to taper. I know, because I made the argument, and I was not alone.
When One Vice Chair is Not Enough
A little-known provision of the enormous Dodd-Frank financial reform law concerns
changes to governance and positions at the Federal Reserve. Buried inTitle XI of Dodd-
Frankis language creating a new position at the Fed, the Vice Chairman for Supervision.
Like the Vice Chairman of the Board, the Vice Chairman for Supervision will have a term
of four years.
While the Vice Chairman of the Board is charged with serving in the absence of the
Chairman, the law states that the Vice Chairman for Supervision shall develop policy
recommendations for the Board regarding supervision and regulation of depository
institution holding companies and other financial firms supervised by the Board, and shall
oversee the supervision and regulation of such firms.
One natural candidate for the new vice chairmanship position is Fed Governor Tarullo,
who has carved out bank supervision as his specialty on the Fed Board. We expect the
new vice chairman to be named sometime in 2014.
* * *
When Bernanke steps down early next year, his successor presumably Yellen -- will inherit
responsibility for a Board of Governors and an FOMC that are significantly more transparent
and innovative than the institution Bernanke first joined as a governor in 2002. Under
Bernankes leadership, the FOMC also became much more democratic and permissive in
the sense that individual participants were not discouraged from airing their views publicly,
even if those views were in direct contrast to the Feds stated policies. The resulting
cacaphony of opinions has at times distracted the publics attention from the Feds
institutional message.
The new Chair will need to guide this group of vocal and disparate policymakers through a
series of critical decisions regarding both the future pace and duration of QE3 and the
eventual commencement of policy normalization (i.e., the exit strategy). We wonder
whether Janet Yellen anticipated this challenge when she included the following in her
statement at the White Houseon Wednesday:
The Fed has powerful tools to influence the economy and the financial system, but I
believe its greatest strength rests in its capacity to approach important decisions with
expertise and objectivity, to vigorously debate diverse views, and then to unite behind its
response.
http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2013/fs131003.cfmhttp://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2013/fs131003.cfmhttp://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2013/fs131003.cfmhttp://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/242http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/242http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/242http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/242http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20131009a.htmhttp://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20131009a.htmhttp://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20131009a.htmhttp://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/242http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/242http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2013/fs131003.cfm -
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Below, we provide our hawk/dove scale from September 24 with the caveat that one
should be cautious in the use of blanket labels to characterize the predilections of Fed
officials. Exhibit 5 lists the current FOMC participants, along with our informal
determination of their policy leanings based on each officials voting history and public
comments.
Exhibit 5: Monetary Policymaker Bias Scale
Hawkish Neutral Dovish 2013 Voter 2014 Voter End of term
Charles I. Plosser
(Philadelphia Fed President) Feb 29, 2016
Esther George
(Kansas City Fed President) Feb 29, 2016
Richard W. Fisher
(Dallas Fed President) Feb 29, 2016
Jeffery M. Lacker
(Richmond Fed President)Feb 29, 2016
Sandra Pianalto*
(Cleveland Fed President) Feb 29, 2016
Dennis P. Lockhart
(Atlanta Fed President)Feb 29, 2016
Jerome H. Powell**
(Governor) Jan 31, 2014
Jeremy Stein
(Governor) Jan 31, 2018
Daniel K. Tarullo
(Governor) Jan 31, 2022
James Bullard
(St. Louis Fed President) Feb 29, 2016
Ben S. Bernanke*
(Chairman)
Jan 31, 2020
(Governor)
Jan 31, 2014
(Chairman)
William Dudley
(New York Fed President) Feb 29, 2016
John Williams
(San Francisco Fed President) Feb 29, 2016
Janet L. Yellen
(Vice Chair, FRB)
Jan 31, 2024
(Governor)
Oct 4, 2014
(Vice Chair)
Narayana Kocherlakota
(Minneapolis Fed President) Feb 29, 2016
Eric S. Rosengren
(Boston Fed President) Feb 29, 2016
Charles L. Evans(Chicago Fed President) Feb 29, 2016Sarah Bloom Raskin*
(Governor)Jan 31, 2016
Vacant*
(Governor) Jan 31, 2026
* Duke left the Fed on August 31, 2013; Bernankes term as Chairman expires on January 31, 2014; Raskin is leaving the Fed to join the US Treasury; Pianalto is retiring in early 2014.
** Powells term as Governor expires at the end of January, but he may continue serving until a new appointment is made.
Source: Credit Suisse, Federal Reserve
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GLOBAL FIXED INCOME AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Dr. Neal Soss, Managing DirectorChief Economist and Global Head of Economic Research
+1 212 325 3335neal.soss@credit-suisse.com
Eric Miller, Managing DirectorGlobal Head of Fixed Income and Economic Research
+1 212 538 6480eric.miller.3@credit-suisse.com
US AND CANADA ECONOMICS
Dr. Neal Soss, Managing Director
Head of US Economics
+1 212 325 3335
neal.soss@credit-suisse.com
Jonathan Basile, Director
+1 212 538 1436
jonathan.basile@credit-suisse.com
Jay Feldman, Director
+1 212 325 7634
jay.feldman@credit-suisse.com
Henry Mo, Director
+1 212 538 0327
henry.mo@credit-suisse.com
Dana Saporta, Director
+1 212 538 3163
dana.saporta@credit-suisse.com
Jill Brown, Vice President
+1 212 325 1578
jill.brown@credit-suisse.com
Isaac Lebwohl, Associate
+1 212 538 1906
isaac.lebwohl@credit-suisse.com
Peggy Riordan, AVP
+1 212 325 7525
peggy.riordan@credit-suisse.com
LATIN AMERICA ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY
Alonso Cervera, Managing Director
Head of Non-Brazil Latam Economics
+52 55 5283 3845
alonso.cervera@credit-suisse.comMexico, Chile
Casey Reckman, Vice President
+1 212 325 5570
casey.reckman@credit-suisse.com
Argentina, Venezuela
Daniel Chodos, Vice President
+1 212 325 7708
daniel.chodos@credit-suisse.com
Colombia, Latam Strategy
Juan Lorenzo Maldonado, Associate
+1 212 325 4245
juanlorenzo.maldonado@credit-suisse.com
Colombia, Peru
Di Fu, Analyst
+1 212 538 4125
di.fu@credit-suisse.com
Nilson Teixeira, Managing Director
Head of Brazil Economics
+55 11 3701 6288
nilson.teixeira@credit-suisse.com
Daniel Lavarda, Vice President
+55 11 3701 6352
daniel.lavarda@credit-suisse.com
Brazil
Iana Ferrao, Associate
+55 11 3701 6345
iana.ferrao@credit-suisse.com
Brazil
Leonardo Fonseca, Associate
+55 11 3701 6348
leonardo.fonseca@credit-suisse.com
Brazil
Paulo Coutinho, Associate
+55 11 3701-6353
paulo.coutinho@credit-suisse.com
Brazil
EURO AREA AND UK ECONOMICS
Neville Hill, Managing Director
Head of European Economics
+44 20 7888 1334
neville.hill@credit-suisse.com
Christel Aranda-Hassel, Director
+44 20 7888 1383
christel.aranda-hassel@credit-suisse.com
Giovanni Zanni, Director
+44 20 7888 6827
giovanni.zanni@credit-suisse.com
Violante di Canossa, Vice President
+44 20 7883 4192
violante.dicanossa@credit-suisse.com
Axel Lang, Associate
+44 20 7883 3738
axel.lang@credit-suisse.com
Steven Bryce, Analyst
+44 20 7883 7360
steven.bryce@credit-suisse.com
Mirco Bulega, Analyst
+44 20 7883 9315
mirco.bulega@credit-suisse.com
EASTERN EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY
Berna Bayazitoglu, Managing Director
Head of EEMEA Economics
+44 20 7883 3431
berna.bayazitoglu@credit-suisse.com
Turkey
Sergei Voloboev, Director
+44 20 7888 3694
sergei.voloboev@credit-suisse.com
Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan
Carlos Teixeira, Director
+27 11 012 8054
carlos.teixeira@credit-suisse.com
South Africa
Gergely Hudecz, Vice President
+33 1 7039 0103
gergely.hudecz@credit-suisse.com
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland
Alexey Pogorelov, Vice President
+7 495 967 8772
alexey.pogorelov@credit-suisse.com
Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan
Shahzad Hasan, Vice President
+44 20 7883 1184
shahzad.hasan@credit-suisse.com
EEMEA Strategy
Natig Mustafayev, Associate
+44 20 7888 1065
natig.mustafayev@credit-suisse.com
EM and EEMEA cross-country analysis
Nimrod Mevorach, Associate
+44 20 7888 1257
nimrod.mevorach@credit-suisse.com
EEMEA Strategy, Israel
JAPAN ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY
Hiromichi Shirakawa, Managing Director+81 3 4550 7117
hiromichi.shrirakawa@credit-suisse.com
Takashi Shiono, Associate+81 3 4550 7189
takashi.shiono@credit-suisse.com
Tomohiro Miyasaka, Director+81 3 4550 7171
tomohiro.miyasaka@credit-suisse.com
NON-JAPAN ASIA ECONOMICS
Dong Tao. Managing Director
Head of NJA Economics
+852 2101 7469
dong.tao@credit-suisse.com
China
Robert Prior-Wandesforde, Director
+65 6212 3707
robert.priorwandesforde@credit-suisse.com
Regional, India, Indonesia, Australia
Christiaan Tuntono, Vice President
+852 2101 7409
christiaan.tuntono@credit-suisse.com
Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan
Santitarn Sathirathai, Vice President
+65 6212 5675
santitarn.sathirathai@credit-suisse.com
Regional, Malaysia, Thailand
Michael Wan, Analyst
+65 6212 3418
michael.wan@credit-suisse.com
Singapore, Philippines
Weishen Deng, Analyst
+852 2101 7162
weishen.deng@credit-suisse.com
China
mailto:alonso.cervera@csfb.commailto:berna.bayazitoglu@csfb.commailto:sergei.voloboev@credit-suisse.commailto:dong.tao@csfb.commailto:dong.tao@csfb.commailto:sergei.voloboev@credit-suisse.commailto:berna.bayazitoglu@csfb.commailto:alonso.cervera@csfb.com -
7/27/2019 Credit Suisse, US Economics Digest, Oct 11, 2013. "The 2014 FOMC: A New Cast of Characters".
10/10
Disclosure Appendix
Analyst Certification
Neal Soss, Dana Saporta and Jill Brown each certify, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyzes, that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personalviews about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisreport.
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