crop outlook prospective plantings webinar 4 01 15 final · prices corn beans wheat harvest futures...
Post on 21-Mar-2020
3 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar April 1, 2015
What Do USDA’s March Prospec(ve Plan(ngs & Grain Stocks Reports Mean for 2015 Outlook?
Chris Hurt, Professor & Extension Ag. Economist
Corinne Alexander, Professor & Extension Ag. Economist
James Mintert, Professor & Director, Center for Commercial Agriculture
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar April 1, 2015
email your quesMons to jmintert@purdue.edu
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
Stocks SituaMon Stocks March 1 ExpectaMon
(Dow Jones Survey) Difference
-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐ Million Bushels -‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐
Corn: Bearish
7,745 7,628 +117
Soybeans Neutral
1,334 1,341 -‐7
Wheat: Neutral
1,124 1,143 -‐19
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
97.2
90.6 89.2
83.7
84.6
55.4
56.8
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Mill
ion
Acr
es
Corn, Soybean, Wheat Planted Acres
Corn Soybeans Wheat
2015 Corn -‐2% Beans +1% Wheat -‐3%
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
U.S. Planted Acres 2015 vs. 14 2015 vs. 14
13 14 15 Change %
Corn 95,365 90,597 89,199 -1,398 -2%
Soybeans 76,840 83,701 84,635 934 1%
Wheat 56,236 56,822 55,367 -1,455 -3%
Cotton 10,407 11,037 9,549 -1,488 -13%
Sorghum 8,076 7,138 7,900 762 11%
Oats 2,980 2,723 2,931 208 8%
Barley 3,528 2,975 3,258 283 10%
Rice 2,490 2,939 2,915 -24 -1%
Sunflower 1,576 1,561 1,786 225 14%
Sum 9 Major 257,498 259,493 257,540 -1,953 -1%
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
EsGmated Variable Cost Per Acre: Average Quality Indiana Land, (165 bpa corn, 50 bpa beans, 71 bpa wheat)
425
223 194
342
183 149
387
194 169
461
230 203
462
239 204
432
228 181
446
222 183
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
RotaGon CORN RotaGon BEANS WHEAT
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
2016 Estimated Crop Budget: Indiana: March 31, 2015
Prices Corn Beans Wheat
Harvest Futures 2015 $4.00 $9.55 $5.14 Expected Basis -0.25 -0.30 -0.35
Expected Harvest Cash Price $3.75 $9.25 $4.79
Estimated Yield/Acre and Returns/Acre Above Variable Costs
Continuous Corn Rotation Corn Rotation Soybeans Single-Crop Wheat
Land Quality bu./acre $/acre bu./acre $/acre bu./acre $/acre bu./acre $/acre Low 124 $41 132 $93 40 $159 57 $111 Average 155 $112 165 $173 50 $241 71 $157 High 186 $216 198 $284 60 $321 85 $202 Budget: Purdue ID-166 (March 2015)
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
New Crop Futures March 2 March 31 Change
Corn $4.13 $4.00 -‐$0.13
Soybeans $9.85 $9.55 -‐$0.30
Returns Per Acre March 2 March 31 Change
Corn $194 $173 -‐$21
Soybeans $255 $241 -‐$14
Beans > Corn $61 $68 +$7
Returns Above Variable Costs
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
Crop Insurance Prices ‘15 Crop Insure
Price 3-‐31-‐15 Dec/Nov Futures
Protected Revenue
Corn $4.15 $4.00 $582
Soybeans $9.73 $9.55 $414
Protected Revenue calculaGon assumes average quality land in Indiana, and Coverage level of 85%
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
Corn: USDA
3/10/15 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Million Bushels Purdue Carryin 1,128 989 821 1,232 1,850 Production 12,358 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,421 Total Supply 13,514 11,904 14,781 15,472 15,291 Feed & Residual 4,547 4,315 5,036 5,300 5,400 FSI Non-Fuel 1,426 1,396 1,400 1,395 1,410 FSI Fuel (Ethanol) 5,011 4,641 5,134 5,200 5,200 Export 1,541 730 1,917 1,800 1,750 Total Use 12,525 11,083 13,454 13,695 13,760 Ending Stocks 989 821 1,232 1,777 1,531 US Farm Price $6.22 $6.89 $4.46 $3.70 $4.00
$3.50- $3.90
Planted: 90.6 89.2 -‐1.5%
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
Corn 2015 Yield Scenarios: Assuming 89.2 Million Acres Planted Trend Yields Good Yields Poor Yields Million Bushels
Yield (bu./ acre) 165 173 155 Carryin 1,850 1,850 1,850 Production 13,421 14,166 12,608 Total Supply 15,291 16,036 14,478 Feed & Residual 5,400 5,500 5,200 FSI Non-Fuel 1,410 1,435 1,400 FSI Fuel (Ethanol) 5,200 5,300 4,950 Export 1,750 1,825 1,675 Total Use 13,760 14,060 13,225 Ending Stocks 1,531 1,976 1,253 Price Estimates $4.00 $3.35 $4.75
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
Soybeans:USDA
3/10/15 Purdue 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Million Bushels Carryin 215 169 141 92 385 Production 3,094 3,042 3,358 3,969 3,768 Total Supply 3,325 3,252 3,570 4,086 4,173 Seed & Residual 88 105 97 116 120 Crush 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,795 1,830 Exports 1,365 1,317 1,647 1,790 1,830 Total Use 3,156 3,111 3,478 3,701 3,780 Ending Stock 169 141 92 385 393 Farm Price $12.50 $14.40 $13.00 $10.20 $9.50
$9.45-$10.95
Planted: 83.7 84.6 +1.1%
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
Soybean 2015 Yield Scenarios: Assuming 84.6 Million Acres Planted Trend Yields Good Yields Poor Yields Million Bushels
Yield (bu./ acre) 45.0 48.0 41.0 Carryin 385 385 385 Production 3,768 4,019 3,433 Total Supply 4,173 4,419 3,848 Seed & Residual 120 115 125 Crush 1,830 1,875 1,795 Export 1,830 1,900 1,770
Total Use 3,780 3,890 3,690
Ending Stocks 393 529 158
Price Estimates $9.50 $7.50 $12.50
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
Old-‐Crop Summary & Strategies 1. Corn stocks were high and that weakens old crop corn prices. Soybean
stocks at expectaGons.
2. Expect old-‐crop corn carryout to increase April 9. A lot of old crop sGll in storage, basis may weaken. Old crop probably sideways in the defined winter range.
3. Smaller than expected 2015 acreage is somewhat encouraging to old crop soybean prices.
4. Weather the determining factor for next 3-‐4 months
2015 Crop Outlook Webinar, April 1, 2015
1. Some added acreage will now shia to soybeans aaer report-‐maybe 1.0 to 1.5 million acres.
2. Normal weather gives $4.00 corn and $9.50 beans. Are your costs in this area? Consider pricing if harvest prices are at these levels or higher
3. Low yields can sGll result in reasonably strong price increase to high $4 range for corn and above $12.00 for soybeans
4. Another high yield year would move toward burdensome surpluses and establish a longer-‐term downturn, to low $3 for corn and mid-‐$7 for beans.
5. Revenue crop insurance remains an important safety net against low prices and poor yields. But protecGon is much lower than previous years.
6. Farm Bill: May be very important in supporGng farm incomes and will depend on ulGmate prices, yields, and the program selected.
New-‐Crop Summary & Strategies
top related