crude to stay in the usd 110-115 per barrel range
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7/31/2019 Crude to stay in the USD 110-115 per barrel range
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Oil Market ReportMiddle distillates uncomfortably tight
6 JULY 2012
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7/31/2019 Crude to stay in the USD 110-115 per barrel range
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SEB Oil Market Report
Crude oil marketWe expect Iran to become increasingly belligerent withsanctions now fully operational, causing extensivedamage to its struggling economy. Stronger seasonaldemand, however uncertain due to deteriorating globalmacroeconomic conditions, will also support Brentcrude prices during H2-12. We believe Saudi Arabia willtake whatever steps are necessary to prevent the oilprice from moving substantially below $90/b for anextended period. Overall, we expect Brent crude toaverage $110/b in Q3-12 and $115/b in Q4-12.
General macroeconomic developments continue todeteriorate with flagging manufacturing PMIs postedworldwide throughout June and July partly offsettingseasonally strong global oil demand in H2-12. Currently, theextent to which it will continue to do so is uncertain makingit even harder for Saudi Arabia to balance production anddemand. So far, it has avoided sending any supportive,verbal signals even when the oil price traded below $90/b inthe second half of June. Early July however, it did in factraise its differential formula prices for all crude benchmarksto Asia, a move likely to strengthen Asian demand forEuropean and the Atlantic basin crude oil. Certainly, Brentcrude prices stabilized and moved back above $100/b inresponse to Saudi Arabia providing such support and alsodue to positive EU summit results in late June which helpeddampen Euro-zone stress.
Since the beginning of July, the impact of the Iranian oilembargo has been maximised, reducing its oil exports fromaround 2 mb/d in late H1-12 to below 1.5 mb/d in H2-12, amove clearly bullish for the Brent crude oil price. Firstly, itwill decrease surplus OPEC capacity. Secondly, the riskpremium will increase. Iran is already in a dire economicsituation with a deteriorating industrial base, rapidly risinginflation generally, and spiralling food prices. Even as theembargo began government finances were poor.Consequently, we believe it will be forced to adopt a policyof brinkmanship to secure a higher price capable ofoffsetting the effects of lower oil production. Examples todate include verbal aggression and the test firing of severalmedium- to long-range missiles. The continuation andpotential escalation of this situation should provide valuablesupport for the Brent crude price.
Of course, the real risk premium for Brent crude involves fullscale military conflict between Israel and Iran, a tail-risklikely to make major short positions fairly unattractive. Westill only expect Brent crude to trade below $90/b for briefperiods given Saudi Arabias willingness to provide supporteither by increasing its formula prices or reducingproduction to circumvent OPEC discussions regarding the30 mb/d oil production target.
Significantly, the likely effectiveness of the oil embargoremains unclear. Currently, an increasing number of IranianVLCC crude tankers are reportedly heading for China afterthe US awarded it a 180 day sanction exemption on June 28.
Crude oilCrude oilCrude oilCrude oil pricepricepriceprice(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, daily closing)
65
7075
8085
9095
100105
110115120
125
130
j a n - 1 0
f e b - 1 0
m a r - 1
0
a p r - 1 0
m a j - 1
0
j u n - 1 0
j u l - 1 0
a u g - 1 0
s e p - 1 0
o k t - 1 0
n o v - 1 0
d e c - 1 0
j a n - 1 1
f e b - 1 1
m a r - 1
1
a p r - 1 1
m a j - 1
1
j u n - 1 1
j u l - 1 1
a u g - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
o k t - 1 1
n o v - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
f e b - 1 2
m a r - 1
2
a p r - 1 2
m a j - 1
2
j u n - 1 2
j u l - 1 2
NYMEXWTIICE Brent
IEA gIEA gIEA gIEA global crude oil demand estimateslobal crude oil demand estimateslobal crude oil demand estimateslobal crude oil demand estimates(mb/d)
79
8081
8283
84
8586
87
8889
9091
92
j a n - 0 9
a p r - 0 9
j u l - 0 9
o k t - 0 9
j a n - 1 0
a p r - 1 0
j u l - 1 0
o k t - 1 0
j a n - 1 1
a p r - 1 1
j u l - 1 1
o k t - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
a p r - 1 2
2009 2010 2011 2012
Chart Sources: IEA, Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
MonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthly global crude oil demand estimatesglobal crude oil demand estimatesglobal crude oil demand estimatesglobal crude oil demand estimates
2011
(mb/d)
Revision
(kb/d)
2012
(mb/d)
Revision
(kb/d)IEA 89.1 -90 89.9 -60EIA 87.98 +60 88.78 +100
OPEC 87.79 +20 88.69 +20
SEB average Brent crude oil price forecastSEB average Brent crude oil price forecastSEB average Brent crude oil price forecastSEB average Brent crude oil price forecast
($/b) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FullYear
2012 (118) (109) 110 115 113,02013 110 110 115 115 112,5
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7/31/2019 Crude to stay in the USD 110-115 per barrel range
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SEB Oil Market Report
Crude oilCrude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)
12 month12 month12 month12 month time spreadtime spreadtime spreadtime spread(NYMEX/ICE, %, daily closing, >0: contango,
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7/31/2019 Crude to stay in the USD 110-115 per barrel range
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SEB Oil Market Report
Crude oilUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)
OOOOECDECDECDECD totaltotaltotaltotal industry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5 year average20112012
c
2525
2550
2575
2600
2625
2650
2675
2700
2725
2750
2775
2800
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5 year range, top5 year range, bottom20125 year average
OECD Europe industry oil stocksOECD Europe industry oil stocksOECD Europe industry oil stocksOECD Europe industry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)
OECD North America industry oil stocksOECD North America industry oil stocksOECD North America industry oil stocksOECD North America industry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)
900
910
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
990
1000
1010
1020
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5 year range, top
5 year range, bottom
2012
5 year average
1175
1200
1225
1250
1275
1300
1325
1350
1375
1400
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5 year range, top
5 year range, bottom
2012
5 year average
OECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocksOECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocksOECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocksOECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)
OPEC productionOPEC productionOPEC productionOPEC production(kb/d, monthly data)
375380385390395400405410415420425430435440
445450
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5 year range, top
5 year range, bottom
20125 year average
24000
25000
26000
27000
28000
29000
30000
31000
32000
33000
j a n - 0 8
m a r - 0
8
m a j - 0
8
j u l - 0 8
s e p - 0 8
n o v - 0 8
j a n - 0 9
m a r - 0
9
m a j - 0
9
j u l - 0 9
s e p - 0 9
n o v - 0 9
j a n - 1 0
m a r - 1
0
m a j - 1
0
j u l - 1 0
s e p - 1 0
n o v - 1 0
j a n - 1 1
m a r - 1
1
m a j - 1
1
j u l - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
n o v - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
m a r - 1
2
m a j - 1
2
OPEC-12 production
OPEC-11 production
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, IEA, SEB Commodity Research
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7/31/2019 Crude to stay in the USD 110-115 per barrel range
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SEB Oil Market Report
European oil product marketsAlthough OECD crude oil inventories are increasingrapidly due to plentiful supply, product inventoriesremain of concern. With few exceptions inventories
are low on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe,economic uncertainty and bad storage economics dueto futures curve backwardation are discouraging stockbuilding. Further, refinery closures have reducedproduct output capacity. If the trend in middledistillates does not reverse soon the market couldbecome even tighter going forward as pre-winterrestocking intensifies. However, high refineryutilization in the US should at least begin to replenishlow local inventories going forward. The tight productmarkets still ensure positive European refineryeconomics. Middle distillate cracks are high whilestable, light end cracks have improved. Also, heavy
end crack weakness appears to have been short-lived.Light ends: While naphtha demand remains muted crackshave rebounded from very low levels due to higher gasolineblending demand and increased petrochemical demand, inAsia in particular. However, high stocks and structuraloversupply of light inputs limit upside potential for naphtha.Also, Atlantic basin gasoline inventories are abnormally low.As a result, the gasoline crack remains resilient, continuingin the same range as middle distillates.
Middle distillates: Middle distillate inventories are lowboth in the US and Europe, a situation compounded by
surprisingly strong demand in both regions. In Europe,German restocking has been triggered by the fall in prices. Ifrefinery output and/or imports do not increase the situationcould become even tighter. While we see no reason toexpect middle distillate cracks to weaken in the short-term,heavy rain in Chile is boosting hydro power output onceagain following a long drought, something that may divertmuch needed US middle distillate cargoes to Europeinstead. Upgraded Russian refineries have also startedsupplying more European standard diesel. Gasoil and jetfuel markets are also tight with the former supported bydesulphurization demand and MENA refinery maintenance,and the latter by solid summer demand bolstered byimproving Asian demand.
Heavy ends: Worries concerning the possibility of a tightAsian market in July have eased due to weakening demand,particularly in China. However, lower absolute prices as aresult of falling crude prices have triggered supportivebuying by both shipping companies and utilities. Whilerestarting Japanese reactors may well dampen prices goingforward, the long-term future of the countrys nuclearpower program remains in doubt. The European marketcontinues in equilibrium due to plentiful Russian supplywhile inventories remain normal.
European lEuropean lEuropean lEuropean lightightightight endendendend benchmarbenchmarbenchmarbenchmarksksksks($/t, daily closing)
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
j a n - 1 0
f e b - 1 0
m a r - 1
0
a p r - 1 0
m a j - 1
0
j u n - 1 0
j u l - 1 0
a u g - 1 0
s e p - 1 0
o k t - 1 0
n o v - 1 0
d e c - 1 0
j a n - 1 1
f e b - 1 1
m a r - 1
1
a p r - 1 1
m a j - 1
1
j u n - 1 1
j u l - 1 1
a u g - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
o k t - 1 1
n o v - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
f e b - 1 2
m a r - 1
2
a p r - 1 2
m a j - 1
2
j u n - 1 2
j u l - 1 2
NaphthaGasoline
European mEuropean mEuropean mEuropean middleiddleiddleiddle distillatedistillatedistillatedistillate benchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarks($/t, daily closing)
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
j a n - 1 0
f e b - 1 0
m a r - 1
0
a p r - 1 0
m a j - 1
0
j u n - 1 0
j u l - 1 0
a u g - 1 0
s e p - 1 0
o k t - 1 0
n o v - 1 0
d e c - 1 0
j a n - 1 1
f e b - 1 1
m a r - 1
1
a p r - 1 1
m a j - 1
1
j u n - 1 1
j u l - 1 1
a u g - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
o k t - 1 1
n o v - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
f e b - 1 2
m a r - 1
2
a p r - 1 2
m a j - 1
2
j u n - 1 2
j u l - 1 2
Jet fuelDiesel 10 ppmGasoil 0.1%
EuropeanEuropeanEuropeanEuropean fuel oilfuel oilfuel oilfuel oil benchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarks($/t, daily closing)
350375400425450475500525550575600625650675700725750775800
j a n - 1 0
f e b - 1 0
m a r - 1
0
a p r - 1 0
m a j - 1
0
j u n - 1 0
j u l - 1 0
a u g - 1 0
s e p - 1 0
o k t - 1 0
n o v - 1 0
d e c - 1 0
j a n - 1 1
f e b - 1 1
m a r - 1
1
a p r - 1 1
m a j - 1
1
j u n - 1 1
j u l - 1 1
a u g - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
o k t - 1 1
n o v - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
f e b - 1 2
m a r - 1
2
a p r - 1 2
m a j - 1
2
j u n - 1 2
j u l - 1 2
High sulphur fuel oil (3.5%)
Low sulphur fuel oil (1.0%)
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
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7/31/2019 Crude to stay in the USD 110-115 per barrel range
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SEB Oil Market Report
Oil productsUS gUS gUS gUS gasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)
US product benchmarksUS product benchmarksUS product benchmarksUS product benchmarks(NYMEX, /gal, front month, daily closing)
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210220
230
240
j f m a m j j a s o n d
Gasoline 5 year averageGasoline 2012
Distillate fuel oil 5 year averageDistillate fuel oil 2012
180190200210220230240250260270280290300310320330
340350360
j a n - 1 0
f e b - 1 0
m a r - 1
0
a p r - 1 0
m a j - 1
0
j u n - 1 0
j u l - 1 0
a u g - 1 0
s e p - 1 0
o k t - 1 0
n o v - 1 0
d e c - 1 0
j a n - 1 1
f e b - 1 1
m a r - 1
1
a p r - 1 1
m a j - 1
1
j u n - 1 1
j u l - 1 1
a u g - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
o k t - 1 1
n o v - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
f e b - 1 2
m a r - 1
2
a p r - 1 2
m a j - 1
2
j u n - 1 2
j u l - 1 2
GasolineHeating oil
US refinery utilizationUS refinery utilizationUS refinery utilizationUS refinery utilization(%, weekly data)
ICE Gasoil andICE Gasoil andICE Gasoil andICE Gasoil and European premiumsEuropean premiumsEuropean premiumsEuropean premiums to Gasoilto Gasoilto Gasoilto Gasoil($/t, daily closing)
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
j f m a m j j a s o n d
2007-2011 avg.
2012
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
j a n - 1 0
f e b - 1 0
m a r - 1
0
a p r - 1 0
m a j - 1
0
j u n - 1 0
j u l - 1 0
a u g - 1 0
s e p - 1 0
o k t - 1 0
n o v - 1 0
d e c - 1 0
j a n - 1 1
f e b - 1 1
m a r - 1
1
a p r - 1 1
m a j - 1
1
j u n - 1 1
j u l - 1 1
a u g - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
o k t - 1 1
n o v - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
f e b - 1 2
m a r - 1
2
a p r - 1 2
m a j - 1
2
j u n - 1 2
j u l - 1 2
-20
-10010
20
30
4050
60
7080
90100
110
ICE Gasoil 0.1% (left)Jet fuel premium (right)Diesel 10 ppmpremium (right)
EuropeanEuropeanEuropeanEuropean productproductproductproduct crackscrackscrackscracks($/b, daily closing)
European lEuropean lEuropean lEuropean lowowowow ---- hhhhighighighigh sulphursulphursulphursulphur fuel oilfuel oilfuel oilfuel oil differentialdifferentialdifferentialdifferential($/t, daily closing)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
j a n - 1 0
f e b - 1 0
m a r - 1
0
a p r - 1 0
m a j - 1
0
j u n - 1 0
j u l - 1 0
a u g - 1 0
s e p - 1 0
o k t - 1 0
n o v - 1 0
d e c - 1 0
j a n - 1 1
f e b - 1 1
m a r - 1
1
a p r - 1 1
m a j - 1
1
j u n - 1 1
j u l - 1 1
a u g - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
o k t - 1 1
n o v - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
f e b - 1 2
m a r - 1
2
a p r - 1 2
m a j - 1
2
j u n - 1 2
j u l - 1 2
Naphtha GasolineJet fuel Gasoil 0.1%Low sulphur fuel oil High sulphur fuel oilDiesel 10 ppm
-15-10
-505
101520253035404550
5560657075
j a n - 1 0
f e b - 1 0
m a r - 1
0
a p r - 1 0
m a j - 1
0
j u n - 1 0
j u l - 1 0
a u g - 1 0
s e p - 1 0
o k t - 1 0
n o v - 1 0
d e c - 1 0
j a n - 1 1
f e b - 1 1
m a r - 1
1
a p r - 1 1
m a j - 1
1
j u n - 1 1
j u l - 1 1
a u g - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
o k t - 1 1
n o v - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
f e b - 1 2
m a r - 1
2
a p r - 1 2
m a j - 1
2
j u n - 1 2
j u l - 1 2
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB C ommodity Research
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7/31/2019 Crude to stay in the USD 110-115 per barrel range
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SEB Oil Market Report
Oil productsRegional 3Regional 3Regional 3Regional 3----2222----1 cracks1 cracks1 cracks1 cracks($/b, daily closing)
European naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocks(kt, monthly data )
-6-4-202468
101214161820222426283032343638
j a n - 1 0
f e b - 1 0
m a r - 1
0
a p r - 1 0
m a j - 1
0
j u n - 1 0
j u l - 1 0
a u g - 1 0
s e p - 1 0
o k t - 1 0
n o v - 1 0
d e c - 1 0
j a n - 1 1
f e b - 1 1
m a r - 1
1
a p r - 1 1
m a j - 1
1
j u n - 1 1
j u l - 1 1
a u g - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
o k t - 1 1
n o v - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
f e b - 1 2
m a r - 1
2
a p r - 1 2
m a j - 1
2
j u n - 1 2
j u l - 1 2
Asia (Minas)US (WTI)Europe (Brent)Persian Gulf (Dubai)
20
3040
5060
7080
90
100110
120130
140150
160
j f m a m j j a s o n d
4 year range, top
4 year range, bottom
2012
4 year average
European gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocks(kt, monthly data)
European jet fuel stocksEuropean jet fuel stocksEuropean jet fuel stocksEuropean jet fuel stocks(kt, monthly data )
400450500550600650700750800850900950
1000105011001150
j f m a m j j a s o n d
4 year range, top
4 year range, bottom
2012
4 year average
100150200250300350
400450500550600650700750800850900
j f m a m j j a s o n d
4 year range, top
4 year range, bottom
2012
4 year average
European gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocks(kt, monthly data)
European fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocks(kt, monthly data )
1000110012001300140015001600170018001900200021002200230024002500260027002800290030003100
j f m a m j j a s o n d
4 year range, top
4 year range, bottom
2012
4 year average
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
j f m a m j j a s o n d
4 year range, top4 year range, bottom20124 year average
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, PJK International, SEB Commodity Research
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7/31/2019 Crude to stay in the USD 110-115 per barrel range
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SEB Oil Market Report
Oil productsUS implied crude oilUS implied crude oilUS implied crude oilUS implied crude oil demanddemanddemanddemand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
US implied gasoline demandUS implied gasoline demandUS implied gasoline demandUS implied gasoline demand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
13,5
13,8
14,0
14,3
14,5
14,8
15,0
15,3
15,5
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5y avg.20112012
8,5
8,7
8,9
9,1
9,3
9,5
9,7
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5y avg.20112012
US implied distillate demandUS implied distillate demandUS implied distillate demandUS implied distillate demand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
Gasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkGasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkGasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkGasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New York($/t, daily closing )
4,0
4,2
4,4
4,6
4,8
5,0
5,2
5,4
5,6
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5y avg.20112012
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
j a n - 1 1
f e b - 1 1
m a r - 1
1
a p r - 1 1
m a j - 1
1
j u n - 1 1
j u l - 1 1
a u g - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
o k t - 1 1
n o v - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
f e b - 1 2
m a r - 1
2
a p r - 1 2
m a j - 1
2
j u n - 1 2
j u l - 1 2
Middle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam toMiddle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam toMiddle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam toMiddle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkNew YorkNew YorkNew York($/t, daily closing )
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
j a n - 1 1
f e b - 1 1
m a r - 1
1
a p r - 1 1
m a j - 1
1
j u n - 1 1
j u l - 1 1
a u g - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
o k t - 1 1
n o v - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
f e b - 1 2
m a r - 1
2
a p r - 1 2
m a j - 1
2
j u n - 1 2
j u l - 1 2
Heating oil/GasoilJet fuel/Kerosene
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB C ommodity Research
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7/31/2019 Crude to stay in the USD 110-115 per barrel range
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SEB Oil Market Report
Related energy marketsUS natural gas priceUS natural gas priceUS natural gas priceUS natural gas price(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)
UKUKUKUK natural gas pricenatural gas pricenatural gas pricenatural gas price(ICE, front month, weekly closing)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
6570
75
80
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
23456789
10111213141516
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90$/MMBtu (left axis)GBp/therm (right axis)
Nordic power pricNordic power pricNordic power pricNordic power priceeee(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
Continental power priceContinental power priceContinental power priceContinental power price(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
20253035404550556065707580859095
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
EUA priceEUA priceEUA priceEUA price(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)
CoalCoalCoalCoal pricepricepriceprice(CIF ARA steam coal, API#2, daily closing)
68
10121416182022242628303234
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
70
7580
8590
95
100105
110
115120
125130
135
j a n - 1 0
f e b - 1 0
m a r - 1
0
a p r - 1 0
m a j - 1
0
j u n - 1 0
j u l - 1 0
a u g - 1 0
s e p - 1 0
o k t - 1 0
n o v - 1 0
d e c - 1 0
j a n - 1 1
f e b - 1 1
m a r - 1
1
a p r - 1 1
m a j - 1
1
j u n - 1 1
j u l - 1 1
a u g - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
o k t - 1 1
n o v - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
f e b - 1 2
m a r - 1
2
a p r - 1 2
m a j - 1
2
j u n - 1 2
j u l - 1 2
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB C ommodity Research
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10
SEB Oil Market Report
Market indicatorsMSCI WorldMSCI WorldMSCI WorldMSCI World equity market indexequity market indexequity market indexequity market index(weekly closing)
UBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCI commodity market indexcommodity market indexcommodity market indexcommodity market index(price index, weekly closing)
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
15001600
1700
1800
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
JPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMI(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)
Regional PMI:sRegional PMI:sRegional PMI:sRegional PMI:s(monthly data)
32
34
36
3840
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
m a r - 0
6
j u n - 0 6
s e p - 0 6
d e c - 0 6
m a r - 0
7
j u n - 0 7
s e p - 0 7
d e c - 0 7
m a r - 0
8
j u n - 0 8
s e p - 0 8
d e c - 0 8
m a r - 0
9
j u n - 0 9
s e p - 0 9
d e c - 0 9
m a r - 1
0
j u n - 1 0
s e p - 1 0
d e c - 1 0
m a r - 1
1
j u n - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
m a r - 1
2
j u n - 1 2
USEurozone
ChinaReference
Regional industrial productionRegional industrial productionRegional industrial productionRegional industrial production growthgrowthgrowthgrowth(%, y/y, monthly data)
OECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicators(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend growth in industrial production)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
m a r - 0
6
j u n - 0 6
s e p - 0 6
d e c - 0 6
m a r - 0
7
j u n - 0 7
s e p - 0 7
d e c - 0 7
m a r - 0
8
j u n - 0 8
s e p - 0 8
d e c - 0 8
m a r - 0
9
j u n - 0 9
s e p - 0 9
d e c - 0 9
m a r - 1
0
j u n - 1 0
s e p - 1 0
d e c - 1 0
m a r - 1
1
j u n - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
m a r - 1
2
USEurozoneChina
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
ChinaEurozoneOECDUSAReference
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, OECD, SEB Commodity Research
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SEB Oil Market Report
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7/31/2019 Crude to stay in the USD 110-115 per barrel range
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www.seb.se
SEB Commodity Research
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity Analystbjarne.schieldrop@seb.no
+47 9248 9230
Filip Petersson, Commodity Strategistfilip.petersson@seb.se
+46 8 506 230 47
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