crude to stay in the usd 110-115 per barrel range

7/31/2019 Crude to stay in the USD 110-115 per barrel range

1/12

Oil Market ReportMiddle distillates uncomfortably tight

6 JULY 2012


2/12

2

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil marketWe expect Iran to become increasingly belligerent withsanctions now fully operational, causing extensivedamage to its struggling economy. Stronger seasonaldemand, however uncertain due to deteriorating globalmacroeconomic conditions, will also support Brentcrude prices during H2-12. We believe Saudi Arabia willtake whatever steps are necessary to prevent the oilprice from moving substantially below $90/b for anextended period. Overall, we expect Brent crude toaverage $110/b in Q3-12 and $115/b in Q4-12.

General macroeconomic developments continue todeteriorate with flagging manufacturing PMIs postedworldwide throughout June and July partly offsettingseasonally strong global oil demand in H2-12. Currently, theextent to which it will continue to do so is uncertain makingit even harder for Saudi Arabia to balance production anddemand. So far, it has avoided sending any supportive,verbal signals even when the oil price traded below $90/b inthe second half of June. Early July however, it did in factraise its differential formula prices for all crude benchmarksto Asia, a move likely to strengthen Asian demand forEuropean and the Atlantic basin crude oil. Certainly, Brentcrude prices stabilized and moved back above $100/b inresponse to Saudi Arabia providing such support and alsodue to positive EU summit results in late June which helpeddampen Euro-zone stress.

Since the beginning of July, the impact of the Iranian oilembargo has been maximised, reducing its oil exports fromaround 2 mb/d in late H1-12 to below 1.5 mb/d in H2-12, amove clearly bullish for the Brent crude oil price. Firstly, itwill decrease surplus OPEC capacity. Secondly, the riskpremium will increase. Iran is already in a dire economicsituation with a deteriorating industrial base, rapidly risinginflation generally, and spiralling food prices. Even as theembargo began government finances were poor.Consequently, we believe it will be forced to adopt a policyof brinkmanship to secure a higher price capable ofoffsetting the effects of lower oil production. Examples todate include verbal aggression and the test firing of severalmedium- to long-range missiles. The continuation andpotential escalation of this situation should provide valuablesupport for the Brent crude price.

Of course, the real risk premium for Brent crude involves fullscale military conflict between Israel and Iran, a tail-risklikely to make major short positions fairly unattractive. Westill only expect Brent crude to trade below $90/b for briefperiods given Saudi Arabias willingness to provide supporteither by increasing its formula prices or reducingproduction to circumvent OPEC discussions regarding the30 mb/d oil production target.

Significantly, the likely effectiveness of the oil embargoremains unclear. Currently, an increasing number of IranianVLCC crude tankers are reportedly heading for China afterthe US awarded it a 180 day sanction exemption on June 28.

Crude oilCrude oilCrude oilCrude oil pricepricepriceprice(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, daily closing)

65

7075

8085

9095

100105

110115120

125

130

j a n - 1 0

f e b - 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1 0

m a j - 1

0

j u n - 1 0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1 0

s e p - 1 0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1 0

d e c - 1 0

j a n - 1 1

f e b - 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1 1

m a j - 1

1

j u n - 1 1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

f e b - 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1 2

m a j - 1

2

j u n - 1 2

j u l - 1 2

NYMEXWTIICE Brent

IEA gIEA gIEA gIEA global crude oil demand estimateslobal crude oil demand estimateslobal crude oil demand estimateslobal crude oil demand estimates(mb/d)

79

8081

8283

84

8586

87

8889

9091

92

j a n - 0 9

a p r - 0 9

j u l - 0 9

o k t - 0 9

j a n - 1 0

a p r - 1 0

j u l - 1 0

o k t - 1 0

j a n - 1 1

a p r - 1 1

j u l - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

a p r - 1 2

2009 2010 2011 2012

Chart Sources: IEA, Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

MonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthly global crude oil demand estimatesglobal crude oil demand estimatesglobal crude oil demand estimatesglobal crude oil demand estimates

2011

(mb/d)

Revision

(kb/d)

2012

(mb/d)

Revision

(kb/d)IEA 89.1 -90 89.9 -60EIA 87.98 +60 88.78 +100

OPEC 87.79 +20 88.69 +20

SEB average Brent crude oil price forecastSEB average Brent crude oil price forecastSEB average Brent crude oil price forecastSEB average Brent crude oil price forecast

($/b) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FullYear

2012 (118) (109) 110 115 113,02013 110 110 115 115 112,5


3/12

3


Crude oilCrude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)

12 month12 month12 month12 month time spreadtime spreadtime spreadtime spread(NYMEX/ICE, %, daily closing, >0: contango,


4/12

4


Crude oilUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)

OOOOECDECDECDECD totaltotaltotaltotal industry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

j f m a m j j a s o n d

5 year average20112012

c

2525

2550

2575

2600

2625

2650

2675

2700

2725

2750

2775

2800


5 year range, top5 year range, bottom20125 year average

OECD Europe industry oil stocksOECD Europe industry oil stocksOECD Europe industry oil stocksOECD Europe industry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)

OECD North America industry oil stocksOECD North America industry oil stocksOECD North America industry oil stocksOECD North America industry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)

900

910

920

930

940

950

960

970

980

990

1000

1010

1020


5 year range, top

5 year range, bottom

2012

5 year average

1175

1200

1225

1250

1275

1300

1325

1350

1375

1400


5 year range, top


2012

5 year average

OECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocksOECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocksOECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocksOECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)

OPEC productionOPEC productionOPEC productionOPEC production(kb/d, monthly data)

375380385390395400405410415420425430435440

445450


5 year range, top


20125 year average

24000

25000

26000

27000

28000

29000

30000

31000

32000

33000

j a n - 0 8

m a r - 0

8

m a j - 0

8

j u l - 0 8

s e p - 0 8

n o v - 0 8

j a n - 0 9

m a r - 0

9

m a j - 0

9

j u l - 0 9

s e p - 0 9

n o v - 0 9

j a n - 1 0

m a r - 1

0

m a j - 1

0

j u l - 1 0

s e p - 1 0

n o v - 1 0

j a n - 1 1

m a r - 1

1

m a j - 1

1

j u l - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

n o v - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

m a r - 1

2

m a j - 1

2

OPEC-12 production

OPEC-11 production

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, IEA, SEB Commodity Research


5/12

5


European oil product marketsAlthough OECD crude oil inventories are increasingrapidly due to plentiful supply, product inventoriesremain of concern. With few exceptions inventories

are low on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe,economic uncertainty and bad storage economics dueto futures curve backwardation are discouraging stockbuilding. Further, refinery closures have reducedproduct output capacity. If the trend in middledistillates does not reverse soon the market couldbecome even tighter going forward as pre-winterrestocking intensifies. However, high refineryutilization in the US should at least begin to replenishlow local inventories going forward. The tight productmarkets still ensure positive European refineryeconomics. Middle distillate cracks are high whilestable, light end cracks have improved. Also, heavy

end crack weakness appears to have been short-lived.Light ends: While naphtha demand remains muted crackshave rebounded from very low levels due to higher gasolineblending demand and increased petrochemical demand, inAsia in particular. However, high stocks and structuraloversupply of light inputs limit upside potential for naphtha.Also, Atlantic basin gasoline inventories are abnormally low.As a result, the gasoline crack remains resilient, continuingin the same range as middle distillates.

Middle distillates: Middle distillate inventories are lowboth in the US and Europe, a situation compounded by

surprisingly strong demand in both regions. In Europe,German restocking has been triggered by the fall in prices. Ifrefinery output and/or imports do not increase the situationcould become even tighter. While we see no reason toexpect middle distillate cracks to weaken in the short-term,heavy rain in Chile is boosting hydro power output onceagain following a long drought, something that may divertmuch needed US middle distillate cargoes to Europeinstead. Upgraded Russian refineries have also startedsupplying more European standard diesel. Gasoil and jetfuel markets are also tight with the former supported bydesulphurization demand and MENA refinery maintenance,and the latter by solid summer demand bolstered byimproving Asian demand.

Heavy ends: Worries concerning the possibility of a tightAsian market in July have eased due to weakening demand,particularly in China. However, lower absolute prices as aresult of falling crude prices have triggered supportivebuying by both shipping companies and utilities. Whilerestarting Japanese reactors may well dampen prices goingforward, the long-term future of the countrys nuclearpower program remains in doubt. The European marketcontinues in equilibrium due to plentiful Russian supplywhile inventories remain normal.

European lEuropean lEuropean lEuropean lightightightight endendendend benchmarbenchmarbenchmarbenchmarksksksks($/t, daily closing)

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

j a n - 1 0

f e b - 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1 0

m a j - 1

0

j u n - 1 0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1 0

s e p - 1 0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1 0

d e c - 1 0

j a n - 1 1

f e b - 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1 1

m a j - 1

1

j u n - 1 1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

f e b - 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1 2

m a j - 1

2

j u n - 1 2

j u l - 1 2

NaphthaGasoline

European mEuropean mEuropean mEuropean middleiddleiddleiddle distillatedistillatedistillatedistillate benchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarks($/t, daily closing)

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

j a n - 1 0

f e b - 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1 0

m a j - 1

0

j u n - 1 0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1 0

s e p - 1 0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1 0

d e c - 1 0

j a n - 1 1

f e b - 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1 1

m a j - 1

1

j u n - 1 1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

f e b - 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1 2

m a j - 1

2

j u n - 1 2

j u l - 1 2

Jet fuelDiesel 10 ppmGasoil 0.1%

EuropeanEuropeanEuropeanEuropean fuel oilfuel oilfuel oilfuel oil benchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarks($/t, daily closing)

350375400425450475500525550575600625650675700725750775800

j a n - 1 0

f e b - 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1 0

m a j - 1

0

j u n - 1 0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1 0

s e p - 1 0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1 0

d e c - 1 0

j a n - 1 1

f e b - 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1 1

m a j - 1

1

j u n - 1 1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

f e b - 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1 2

m a j - 1

2

j u n - 1 2

j u l - 1 2

High sulphur fuel oil (3.5%)

Low sulphur fuel oil (1.0%)

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research


6/12

6


Oil productsUS gUS gUS gUS gasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)

US product benchmarksUS product benchmarksUS product benchmarksUS product benchmarks(NYMEX, /gal, front month, daily closing)

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210220

230

240


Gasoline 5 year averageGasoline 2012

Distillate fuel oil 5 year averageDistillate fuel oil 2012

180190200210220230240250260270280290300310320330

340350360

j a n - 1 0

f e b - 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1 0

m a j - 1

0

j u n - 1 0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1 0

s e p - 1 0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1 0

d e c - 1 0

j a n - 1 1

f e b - 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1 1

m a j - 1

1

j u n - 1 1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

f e b - 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1 2

m a j - 1

2

j u n - 1 2

j u l - 1 2

GasolineHeating oil

US refinery utilizationUS refinery utilizationUS refinery utilizationUS refinery utilization(%, weekly data)

ICE Gasoil andICE Gasoil andICE Gasoil andICE Gasoil and European premiumsEuropean premiumsEuropean premiumsEuropean premiums to Gasoilto Gasoilto Gasoilto Gasoil($/t, daily closing)

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93


2007-2011 avg.

2012

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

j a n - 1 0

f e b - 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1 0

m a j - 1

0

j u n - 1 0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1 0

s e p - 1 0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1 0

d e c - 1 0

j a n - 1 1

f e b - 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1 1

m a j - 1

1

j u n - 1 1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

f e b - 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1 2

m a j - 1

2

j u n - 1 2

j u l - 1 2

-20

-10010

20

30

4050

60

7080

90100

110

ICE Gasoil 0.1% (left)Jet fuel premium (right)Diesel 10 ppmpremium (right)

EuropeanEuropeanEuropeanEuropean productproductproductproduct crackscrackscrackscracks($/b, daily closing)

European lEuropean lEuropean lEuropean lowowowow ---- hhhhighighighigh sulphursulphursulphursulphur fuel oilfuel oilfuel oilfuel oil differentialdifferentialdifferentialdifferential($/t, daily closing)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

j a n - 1 0

f e b - 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1 0

m a j - 1

0

j u n - 1 0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1 0

s e p - 1 0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1 0

d e c - 1 0

j a n - 1 1

f e b - 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1 1

m a j - 1

1

j u n - 1 1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

f e b - 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1 2

m a j - 1

2

j u n - 1 2

j u l - 1 2

Naphtha GasolineJet fuel Gasoil 0.1%Low sulphur fuel oil High sulphur fuel oilDiesel 10 ppm

-15-10

-505

101520253035404550

5560657075

j a n - 1 0

f e b - 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1 0

m a j - 1

0

j u n - 1 0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1 0

s e p - 1 0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1 0

d e c - 1 0

j a n - 1 1

f e b - 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1 1

m a j - 1

1

j u n - 1 1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

f e b - 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1 2

m a j - 1

2

j u n - 1 2

j u l - 1 2

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB C ommodity Research


7/12

7


Oil productsRegional 3Regional 3Regional 3Regional 3----2222----1 cracks1 cracks1 cracks1 cracks($/b, daily closing)

European naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocks(kt, monthly data )

-6-4-202468

101214161820222426283032343638

j a n - 1 0

f e b - 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1 0

m a j - 1

0

j u n - 1 0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1 0

s e p - 1 0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1 0

d e c - 1 0

j a n - 1 1

f e b - 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1 1

m a j - 1

1

j u n - 1 1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

f e b - 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1 2

m a j - 1

2

j u n - 1 2

j u l - 1 2

Asia (Minas)US (WTI)Europe (Brent)Persian Gulf (Dubai)

20

3040

5060

7080

90

100110

120130

140150

160


4 year range, top


2012

4 year average

European gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocks(kt, monthly data)

European jet fuel stocksEuropean jet fuel stocksEuropean jet fuel stocksEuropean jet fuel stocks(kt, monthly data )

400450500550600650700750800850900950

1000105011001150


4 year range, top


2012

4 year average

100150200250300350

400450500550600650700750800850900


4 year range, top


2012

4 year average

European gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocks(kt, monthly data)

European fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocks(kt, monthly data )

1000110012001300140015001600170018001900200021002200230024002500260027002800290030003100


4 year range, top


2012

4 year average

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050


4 year range, top4 year range, bottom20124 year average

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, PJK International, SEB Commodity Research


8/12

8


Oil productsUS implied crude oilUS implied crude oilUS implied crude oilUS implied crude oil demanddemanddemanddemand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)

US implied gasoline demandUS implied gasoline demandUS implied gasoline demandUS implied gasoline demand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)

13,5

13,8

14,0

14,3

14,5

14,8

15,0

15,3

15,5


5y avg.20112012

8,5

8,7

8,9

9,1

9,3

9,5

9,7


5y avg.20112012

US implied distillate demandUS implied distillate demandUS implied distillate demandUS implied distillate demand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)

Gasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkGasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkGasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkGasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New York($/t, daily closing )

4,0

4,2

4,4

4,6

4,8

5,0

5,2

5,4

5,6


5y avg.20112012

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

j a n - 1 1

f e b - 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1 1

m a j - 1

1

j u n - 1 1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

f e b - 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1 2

m a j - 1

2

j u n - 1 2

j u l - 1 2

Middle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam toMiddle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam toMiddle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam toMiddle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkNew YorkNew YorkNew York($/t, daily closing )

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

j a n - 1 1

f e b - 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1 1

m a j - 1

1

j u n - 1 1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

f e b - 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1 2

m a j - 1

2

j u n - 1 2

j u l - 1 2

Heating oil/GasoilJet fuel/Kerosene



9/12

9


Related energy marketsUS natural gas priceUS natural gas priceUS natural gas priceUS natural gas price(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)

UKUKUKUK natural gas pricenatural gas pricenatural gas pricenatural gas price(ICE, front month, weekly closing)

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

6570

75

80

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

23456789

10111213141516

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90$/MMBtu (left axis)GBp/therm (right axis)

Nordic power pricNordic power pricNordic power pricNordic power priceeee(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)

Continental power priceContinental power priceContinental power priceContinental power price(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

20253035404550556065707580859095

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

EUA priceEUA priceEUA priceEUA price(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)

CoalCoalCoalCoal pricepricepriceprice(CIF ARA steam coal, API#2, daily closing)

68

10121416182022242628303234

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

70

7580

8590

95

100105

110

115120

125130

135

j a n - 1 0

f e b - 1 0

m a r - 1

0

a p r - 1 0

m a j - 1

0

j u n - 1 0

j u l - 1 0

a u g - 1 0

s e p - 1 0

o k t - 1 0

n o v - 1 0

d e c - 1 0

j a n - 1 1

f e b - 1 1

m a r - 1

1

a p r - 1 1

m a j - 1

1

j u n - 1 1

j u l - 1 1

a u g - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

o k t - 1 1

n o v - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

j a n - 1 2

f e b - 1 2

m a r - 1

2

a p r - 1 2

m a j - 1

2

j u n - 1 2

j u l - 1 2



10/12

10


Market indicatorsMSCI WorldMSCI WorldMSCI WorldMSCI World equity market indexequity market indexequity market indexequity market index(weekly closing)

UBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCI commodity market indexcommodity market indexcommodity market indexcommodity market index(price index, weekly closing)

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

15001600

1700

1800

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

JPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMI(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)

Regional PMI:sRegional PMI:sRegional PMI:sRegional PMI:s(monthly data)

32

34

36

3840

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

m a r - 0

6

j u n - 0 6

s e p - 0 6

d e c - 0 6

m a r - 0

7

j u n - 0 7

s e p - 0 7

d e c - 0 7

m a r - 0

8

j u n - 0 8

s e p - 0 8

d e c - 0 8

m a r - 0

9

j u n - 0 9

s e p - 0 9

d e c - 0 9

m a r - 1

0

j u n - 1 0

s e p - 1 0

d e c - 1 0

m a r - 1

1

j u n - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

m a r - 1

2

j u n - 1 2

USEurozone

ChinaReference

Regional industrial productionRegional industrial productionRegional industrial productionRegional industrial production growthgrowthgrowthgrowth(%, y/y, monthly data)

OECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicators(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend growth in industrial production)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

m a r - 0

6

j u n - 0 6

s e p - 0 6

d e c - 0 6

m a r - 0

7

j u n - 0 7

s e p - 0 7

d e c - 0 7

m a r - 0

8

j u n - 0 8

s e p - 0 8

d e c - 0 8

m a r - 0

9

j u n - 0 9

s e p - 0 9

d e c - 0 9

m a r - 1

0

j u n - 1 0

s e p - 1 0

d e c - 1 0

m a r - 1

1

j u n - 1 1

s e p - 1 1

d e c - 1 1

m a r - 1

2

USEurozoneChina

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

ChinaEurozoneOECDUSAReference

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, OECD, SEB Commodity Research


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11


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Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity [email protected]

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Filip Petersson, Commodity [email protected]

+46 8 506 230 47

crude to stay in the usd 110-115 per barrel range

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