dawn nafus's presentation at emerging communication conference & awards 2010 america

An Anthropologist’s Eye for the Tech Guy:

Emerging Market Opportunities in a Post-BRIC World

Dawn Nafus

Dividing it between mature and emerging markets is no longer helpful

Problem

The world changes

Tradition radars for where to look for partners and markets lead to missed opportunities

Emerging?

Really?

Maslow who?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/kitseeborg/232220319/

We need an paradigm shift in how we think about technology adoption

04/13/2023 Intel Confidential6

Technology Metabolism Index (TMI)

An ethnographic and statistical model that tells us which countries have out performed the average rate of global technology diffusion, given each country’s economic productivity.

Where is adoption higher than we could expect based on income levels alone?

What contributes to it?

What TMI measures

world

country

world

country

T

GDP

GDP

PC

PC

TMI lnInsert any technology

you like!

Dataset and codebook available athttp://www.wiaproject.org/

E-Readiness

Denmark

USA

Switzerland

Sweden

UK

Netherlands

Finland

Australia

Canada

Hong Kong

Norway

Germany

Singapore

New Zealand

Austria

Sample High TMI Scorers

Estonia

S Korea

Malaysia

Dominica

Moldova

Kenya

Morocco

Turkey

Benin

Paraguay

Bulgaria

Slovak Republic

Lebanon

New Zealand

Israel

Not your usual suspects….

10

Emerging Markets Emerging Not Just Because They Have Money

04/13/2023 Intel Confidential

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

TMI for Mobile Phones, High Income Countries

TMI for Mobile Phones, 28 Largest Middle/Low Income Countries

• Nation-state as a meaningful unit– Strong sense of ‘we’ as the agent of change– External competition important

(e.g., Russia for Estonia; Japan for S Korea)

• Normative ethos– New products perceived as ‘normal’ before they

become ubiquitous

• Social and Physical Network density– Both nonlinearly harder to build in larger places

• Active and agile states – Not necessarily democratic or transparent– Technology as part of “clean slate” making after

radical social change

Ubiquity with obvious “need” in Estonia. Here WiFi access is provided in a beach parking lot.

High scoring countries (both rich and poor) share cultural factors that make them rapid tech adopters:

• TMI helps us identify non-traditional markets by what they have, not by what they lack• High scorers show how culture shapes ecosystems and public policy environments,

not just individual buying decisions

From “Basic Needs” to Social Systems

Top 10%

“Meets Expectations”

Bottom 10%

World TMI (Aggregated PCs + Mobile Phones + Population of Internet Users)

04/13/2023 Intel Confidential13

backup

TMI identifies diversity in adoption paths TECHNOLOGY METABOLISM INDEX E-READINESS (IBM/World Bank)

Differentiated adoption paths: some factors impact different technology adoption differently

‘Basket of goods’ approach: Measures all countries against a single end state of development

Correlated FDI and heavy international trade with low relative rates of adoption

Assumes FDI, heavy international trade is an enabler

Shows social, cultural and infrastructural factors that enable adoption at a national level

Shows readiness for placing factories and other high-infrastructure activities

Identifies capacity to build infrastructure, even in adverse economic conditions

Measures current state of infrastructure

Enables examination of longer term cultural values and institutional systems that make it possible to adopt rapidly

Rankings tied to economic fluctuations