delight your customers: the #noestimates way
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Delight Your Customers:
Insanity: doing the same thing over and
Over again and expecting different results.
-Albert Einstein
The #noestimates Way
Troy Tuttle, KCP Principal Consultant, Owner KanFlow.com troy@kanflow.com @troytuttle
Rate This Talk! http://spkr8.com/t/31701
Before Lean Software Existed … (In my mind anyway)
What is this #noestimates Thing?
#noestimates means different things to different people
It started as a conversation on Twitter
The #noestimates topic sparked a renewed interest in the original promise of Agile
1st Rule of #noestimates:
If estimation works for your team or your organization, Keep Calm and Carry On.
“Estimates are a function of duration and uncertainty. Since we don't like uncertainty,
we convert it simply to duration. “
-Jabe Bloom (@cyetain) #lkna14
Estimation Challenges
“Ranges that are given as +/– a constant time or constant percent are missing the problem’s exponential nature.”
Actual durations exceeded estimates by an average 2.2 times.
Little’s statistical analysis compared developer’s estimates to the actual task durations. (for example: estimate was 4 hours, it actually took 7 hours)
“Schedule Estimation and Uncertainty” IEEE Software, May/June 2006
-Todd Little
“It’s not just good enough to double the initial estimate— some teams have found it appropriate to
multiply by 3, 4, or even Pi.”
The Estimation Game
The Software Estimation Game goes something like this:
Developer: Sure! Looks like it should take about 1 week.
Manager: Joe, would you give me an estimate of how long feature X will take?
-- 2 weeks later, feature “X” is completed. --
Manager: Um, Yeah. Joe, it took twice as long as your estimate. I told management it would take 1 week. If this happens again, it will require overtime.
Developer: Ok, I understand.
Manager: Joe, would you give me an estimate of how long feature Z will take?
Developer: Sure! It should take about 3 weeks.
-- 3 weeks later, feature “Z” is completed. --
Manager: Great job Joe! Now were making progress!
The Estimation Game
Theoretical Task Completion Time
Donald Reinertsen, Managing the Design Factory
Duration Due Date
Average
Actual Task Completion Time
Duration Due Date
Average
“Expanding Work”
Parkinson’s Law
Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion
Nature of Knowledge Work
Manufacturing = repeatable processes Product Development = one time processes
One-time processes are non-deterministic in nature
Nature of Knowledge Work
Deterministic Approach
Project Start
Knowledge
“Complete” Planned Activity
Non-deterministic Reality
Project Start
Knowledge
“Complete” ?
What Customer Really Wants Better Knowledge
Project Managers in the middle, pulling out their hair
Nature of Knowledge Work
Idea Analysis Design Build (Dev)
Test
“Design” Phases “Execute” Phases
Idea Analysis Design Build (Dev)
Test Production
“Design” Phases “Execute” Phases
What happens when we estimate?
Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Story Points and Velocity are abstractions that insulate the team and the business from reality
“Yippie! Our Velocity was 25 story points the last sprint. Let’s go celebrate!”
To Story Point or Not to Story Point
X X X X X X X X
?
To Story Point or Not to Story Point
@duarte_vasco
-Vasco Duarte http://bit.ly/vasco_blog
The #noestimates Playbook
• Dedicated and stable teams
• Fix time and cost constraints
• Right size user stories
• Iterate and deliver frequently
• Drip Feed or Investment Funding
• Track lead time and throughput
• Speak the language of the business (don’t use terms from physics)
• Don’t use bullet points in your slides
The #noestimates Playbook
Input Q Design Develop Test Done 1 2 1
3
1 2
9
7
8
6
4
5
Lead Time
Throughput
10
14 days from this point
5 stories per week
Upstream Planning
1. Prioritize
2. Analyze
S S S S S S
S S S S
The #noestimates Playbook
If we start a new story today, we expect to complete it in:
Probabilistic Forecasting
<= 5 days (50th percentile) <= 8 days (85th percentile) <= 13 days (95th percentile)
Delight Your Customers:
Insanity: doing the same thing over and
Over again and expecting different results.
-Albert Einstein
The #noestimates Way
Troy Tuttle, KCP Principal Consultant, Owner KanFlow.com troy@kanflow.com @troytuttle
Rate This Talk! http://spkr8.com/t/31701
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