diamandis_michigan_abundance

Innovation & Disruption on

the Road to ABUNDANCE

2014 Michigan CEO Summit– November ‘14

Live Tweeting? I’m @PeterDiamandis

Peter H. Diamandis, MD

We are heading towards a world of Abundance…

Why?

ABUNDANCE:

The Future Is Better Than You Think #1 on Amazon; #2 on New York Times

AMYGDALA ALL VISUAL INFORMATION

ALL AUDIO INFORMATION

(1) Global Income

(2) Lifespan

(3) Food

(4) Energy

(5) Transportation

(6) Communications

(1) Global Income

(2) Lifespan

(3) Food

(4) Energy

(5) Transportation

(6) Communications

Evidence for Abundance

The End of Poverty (June 2013)

The Decline of Violence

“In primitive societies

15% of people died

violently; now 0.03% do…

“Violence is 1/500th of what

it used to be.”

- Prof. Steven Pinker, Harvard

Re-defining “Poverty”…

‣99% have electricity, water, flushing toilets & a refrigerator

‣95% have a television

‣88% have a telephone

‣70% have a car & air conditioning

In America today, those classified as poor:

Source: The Rational Optimist, Matt Ridley

This is far superior to Ford or Vanderbilt. We are redefining what we call ‘poor’.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

FORCE: Rising Billion

2000 2010 2020

GLOBAL POPULATION (BILLIONS)

6%

23%

66%

Global Population

Internet Users

3 BILLION NEW MINDS

What will 3 Billion New Minds…

create

consume

discover

desire invent

…Tens of trillions of annual PP

…Greatest period of Innovation (ever)

(1) Exponential Technologies

(2) BOLD Mindset

SINGULARITY UNIVERSITY

NASA – AUTODESK – GOOGLE – CISCO– NOKIA – GENENTECH Mountain View, California

9 10 + Impact

www.SingularityU.org

What does EXPONENTIAL growth feel like?

Take 30 paces… LINEAR

01 02

03 04

05 06

07 08

09 10

11 12

13

30 meters

01 02 04 08 16 32 64 128 256

… 1,073,741,824 meters

26X around the Earth!

Take 30 steps…

EXPONENTIAL

Disruptive Stress

/Opportunity

EXPONENTIAL LINEAR

1996

MarketCap: $28B

Employees: 140,000

2012

Bankrupt

Employees: 17,000

April 2012

MarketCap: $1B

Employees: 13

“The New Kodak Moment”

In 10 years, it’s predicted that

40% of the Fortune 500 Companies

will no longer exist.

* Babson Olin School of Business, Fast Company April 2011, page 121.

The average lifespan of a company listed in the

S&P 500 has significantly decreased:

• In the 1920’s = 67 years

• Today = 15 years

- Richard Foster, Yale University

“I’ve got an Idea!”

“I run a $Billion company.”

• Youtube

• Instagram

• Dropbox

• Uber

• Oculus VR

• Whatsapp

• Snapchat

• AirBnb

Ca

lcu

lati

on

s/S

ec

pe

r $

10

00

co

mp

ute

r

FORCE: EXPONTENTIALLY GROWING TECH

The exponential growth of

computing on a Logarithmic Plot Calc./second for a $1000 laptop vs. Time

Calc

ula

tion

s p

er

Se

co

nd p

er

$1

00

0

Year

2

2

2023

2050

2010

“6Ds” – Exponential Framework

Digitized (Information Tech)

Deceptive

Dematerialize

Demonetize

Democratize

Disruptive

Dematerialization

20 Years later…

All of these fit in

your pocket…

Demonetization

Classifieds

Long Distance

Research/Libraries

Book Stores

Hotel Chains

Taxi Fleets

Democratization

African Mobile Growth: >1B by 2016

Technologies Riding Moore’s Law

1. Infinite Computing

2. Sensor & Networks

3. Robotics

4. 3D Printing

5. Synthetic Biology

6. Digital Medicine

7. Nanomaterials

8. Artificial Intelligence

“Watson vs. Humans on Jeopardy”

Artificial Intelligence

Infinite Computing •2,880 POWER7 processor cores;

•16 Terabytes of RAM

•200 million pages of content (Wikipedia)

•Process 1 million books per second

CLOUD

Sensor Explosion

1976 – 1st Digital Camera

0.01 MP / 3.75 lbs / $10K 2014 – Digital Camera

>10 MP / 0.03 lbs / $10

1000x Resolution

1000x Lighter

1000x Cheaper

1,000,000,000 x better

1 BILLION TIMES BETTER 1,000x Resolution & 1,000 lighter & 1,000 cheaper

Steven Sasson

Sensor Explosion

Early Rocket Navigation

Inertial Measurement Unit

1960’s – $ Millions – 50 lbs

Velocity/Orientation/Accel.

Accelerometer: $1

Gyroscope: $3

Molecular Machines

Free & embedded

Sensor Explosion

1st commercial GPS Receiver in 1981

Weight: 53 lbs; Cost: $119,900

Single Chip GPS Receiver

2010; <$5 each

Paradigm Change: Robotics

Robotics- Boston Dynamics / Google

Paradigm Change: Robotics

Robotics - Google’s Autonomous Car

Paradigm Change: Robotics

Robotics - Google’s Autonomous Car

Paradigm Change: Robotics

LIDAR

64 lasers

10 RPM

1.3 mil datapoints or

750 Mbytes/second

Light Detection And Ranging)

LIDAR: Light Detection

& Ranging

Robotics - Google’s Autonomous Car

Paradigm Change: Robotics/Sensors

Perfect Knowledge, Anything – Anytime Light Detection And Ranging)

LEO Constellations

~ .5m global resolution

5 Known Constellations

Including Skybox

Quad Copter

~ 1 cm global resolution

Plummeting costs

Solar Powered

Google Glass

~ 1 mm global resolution

3D Printing – A $10 Trillion Industry

3D Printing - Disrupting a $10 Trillion Manufacturing Industry

3D Printing

Ten (10) 3D printed houses

in 24 hrs for <$5K each

>20K VSP surgeries in ‘14

Genome Sequencing & Synthetic Biology

2001 (Sequenced First Human)

$100M & 1 year $1K & minutes

“Making 100 Years

old, the new 60.”

Premier Human

Health Database

Human Genome Metabolomics

Phenotype Data Proteomics

Microbiome Full-body MRI

Four Critical Insights… • 1st Insight: The only constant is change & the rate of

change is increasing.

• 2nd Insight: You either disrupt your own company/products,

or someone else will. Standing still = death.

• 3rd Insight: Competition is no-longer the multinational

overseas. It is the explosion of exponentially empowered

entrepreneurs.

• 4th Insight : Your “Mindset” matters, a lot...

(1) Exponential Technologies

(2) BOLD Mindset

Google’s Moonshot Thinking

Astro Teller – Chief of Moonshots

What is your moonshot?

What is one area of your business

where you should shoot for 10x

growth, rather than 10%?

1. Focus on the user

2. Open will win

3. Ideas come from everywhere

4. Think big, start small

5. Never fail to fail

6. Launch early and iterate

7. Be a platform, float all boats

8. Make it matter

Google’s 8 Innovation Principals

Lockheed Skunk Works

1st Jet (P-80) in 143 days (in 1943). U2. SR-71 Kelly Johnson

Kelly Johnson & GoogleX Rules

(1) Massive Transformative Purpose (MTP):

A Bold, Compelling Vision – “Win over Nazis”

(2) Small Teams: “The # of people connected to the project

should be restricted in an almost vicious manner.”

(3) Extreme Isolation: “Access by outsiders to the project

and its personnel must be strictly controlled.”

(4) Authority & Autonomy: “The Manager must have control

of his program on a day-to-day basis.”

(5) Flexibility: “You must provide a very simple drawing with

great flexibility for making changes.”

(6) Testing & Experimentation: “The contractor must test

product in the initial stages, and final product in flight.”

Kelly Johnson & GoogleX Rules

Billionaire “Thinking Strategies”: Thinking at Scale

1. Passion & Purpose

2. Rapid Experimentation

3. Customer-Centric thinking

4. Risk Mitigation

5. Long-term thinking

6. Optimistic thinking

Thinking at Scale: Passion and Purpose

“I didn’t go into the rocket business, the car

business, or the solar business thinking this is a

great opportunity. I just thought, in order to make a

difference, something needed to be done. I wanted

to have an impact, I wanted to create something

substantially better than what came before.”

- Elon Musk

Thinking at Scale: Experimentation

“The amount of useful invention you do is directly

proportional to the number of experiments you can run

per week per month per year. If you’re going to

increase the number of experiments, you’re also going

to increase the number of failures. You’ve got to be

willing to be misunderstood for long periods of time.”

- Jeff Bezos

Thinking at Scale: Customer-Centric

“How do we decide what’s really important to work

on? I like to call it the ‘toothbrush test’: do you use

it as often as you use your toothbrush? I guess

that’s twice a day. We use Gmail & YouTube much

more than twice a day. Those things are amazing.”

- Larry Page

Thinking at Scale: Risk Mitigation

“Superficially, I think it looks like entrepreneurs

have a high tolerance for risk. But, one of the

most important phrases in my life is ‘protect the

downside.” - Richard Branson

Thinking at Scale: Long-Term Thinking

“ We will continue to make investment decisions in

light of long-term market leadership considerations

rather than short-term profitability considerations or

short-term Wall Street reactions…. we choose to

prioritize growth because we believe that scale is

central to achieving the potential of our business.”

- Jeff Bezos

Thinking at Scale: Optimistic Thinking

“I’m tremendously optimistic, I’m certain that

whatever challenges we take on, we can solve with a

little bit of concerted effort and some good

technology. And that’s an exciting place to be. [It

means] our job is really to make the world better. We

need to get better organized and move a lot faster.”

- Larry Page

www.a360.org – Peter’s Mastermind Program

www.xprize.org – XPRIZE Foundation

www.singularityU.org – Singularity University

For a copy of these slides:

Text your First Name & Email

to: (310) 299-8772