digiday mobile with business insider: will mobile ever live up to its promise?
Post on 27-Jan-2015
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The Future Of MobileHenry BlodgetCEO & EIC, Business Insider
2+ billion people online
2/3 of the world left to go
Something profound happened last year…
Smartphone sales blew past PC sales
PC growth stalled
Tablets are now driving all the growth in PC market
So the future is mobile
Where are we in the
mobile revolution?
Globally, we’re still early…
But growth slows after 50% penetration
U.S. and other markets are past halfway point
US smartphone growth starting to slow
Most future US smartphone buyers will be older and poorer
Source: Nielsen
So the focus is on markets like China, which now accounts for
~25% of smartphone sales.
China is already twice the size of US market
So, what do people do on mobile?
Well, first, they do pretty much
everything they do online…
They play games and social-network…
They listen to music...
They consume content…
They look at pictures and video.
They use their devices while they watch TV
They shop…
They use smartphones to make buying decisions in
stores.
They pay for stuff
They buy content
And they do stuff they DON’T do online…
Play Angry Birds, et al
Source: New reports, company releases, BI Intelligence estimates
Take and share pictures
BOTTOM LINE:
Mobile devices = More Internet usage +
New applications
Source: comScore, Telefonica, Macquarie Capital (USA), December 2011
Mobile has extended digital “primetime”
Share Of Device Page Traffic Over A Day:
Mobile usage is up across the board
People are consuming a huge amount of content through
mobile…
As mobile increases, all other media decreases
This leads to another key question…
Mobile advertising will be huge, right?
Hmm…
The “bullish” mobile-ad story is the huge gap between time-spent and ad spending.
Source: Mary Meeker (KPCB), eMarketer, IAB
But maybe there’s a good reason for that gap…
The screen is really small.
Mobile monetization still behind the desktop
Most “mobile” ads are mainly web search + display ads viewed
on mobile
Google completely owns mobile search
So Google owns mobile, too
Overall, mobile is still a tiny fraction of digital ad spending.
And it’s growing much slower than TV + Internet in the first
5 years
But!
“Native” mobile ads are finally beginning to appear…
• Ads in timelines (Twitter / Facebook)• Shareable ads• Location-based mobile ads
Location-based mobile ads can target users at the mall,
restaurants, car dealers …
Targeted mobile ads have higher CPMs
So, yes, mobile ads are just getting started
We are here
APPS
App Store downloads on pace to hit 60 billion by mid-2013
Smartphone users spend more time on apps than web
Mobile app revenue is growing fast, but still relatively small.
Because most downloads are free
“Freemium” is the dominant model
Games are the biggest money makers
Mobile has become a platform game.
Platform markets tend to standardize around one or two platforms.
Right now, mobile is a two-horse race.
Android has the largest smartphone platform globally.
Partly because it owns China
And it’s the same two-horse story in tablets
But a big mystery has arisen...
Where are all these Android users?
Apple is dominating app revenue
And mobile commerce and web traffic…
Do Android folks actually use their
devices?
Likely Answer:
Android is the mass market.
Mobile profits are going mainly to two players.
So, what’s the future?
Digital?
Yes.
Mobile?
Yes.
Mobile ONLY?
No.
Digital is now a 4-screen world…
Maybe 5 screens soon…
But mobile FIRST?
Only if you have a totally mobile-centric
app...
...Or you want to annoy your users and
customers.
Thank you very much.
Henry BlodgetFounder, CEO & Editor-in-Chief, Business Insider
Alex Cocotas, Analyst
Marcelo Ballvé, Editorial Director
BI Intelligence is a new subscription service from Business Insider that provides in-depth insight, data, and analysis of the mobile industry.
More info at intelligence.businessinsider.com
Peter Lee, Intern
Josh Luger, Director of Subscription Products
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