[dr. kaseda] korean unification vision and northeast asian peace-building: a japanese view

KASEDA YoshinoriUniversity of Kitakyushu

I. Some Interest in Normalization with the DPRK expectation for economic benefits

II. Following the Policy of the USA & the ROK (particularly the US policy) Because: USA > ROK > DPRK 1) improvement in the DPRK’s relations with the USA & the ROK facilitate Japan’s conciliatory policy toward the DPRK 2) tensions in the DPRK’s relations with the USA & the ROK make Japan reluctant to improve relations with the DPRK 3) Few ideas for peace building through peaceful means 4) Few discussions on Korean unification = lack of visions

III. Japan’s benefits from “neutralization” of hostile relations with the DPRK 1) Economic gains likely: from greater economic exchanges among Northeast Asian countries 2) Reduction in security costs: 1) costs for unilateral military buildups 2) costs for strengthening military alliance with the USA e.g. 1) concentration of US bases in Okinawa 2) financial support for US forces in Japan:

I. Few bold steps toward normalization, despite: 1) the Agreed Framework (1994) 2) the Agreements at the Six-Party Talks (2007)

II. Reasons = concerns about negative impacts 1) Decline in the ROK & Japan’s security reliance on the USA reduction in their financial support for US forces reduction in US arms sales to them 2) Decline in the ROK & Japan’s economic reliance on the USA expansion of trade among the DPRK, the ROK, Japan, the PRC, Russia & Mongolia 3) Overall erosion of US power over the ROK & Japan

I. Eager to normalize relations with the USA

II. Concessions 1) freeze of its nuclear facilities (1994-2002) the DPRK-US Agreed Framework (1994) 2) dismantlement of its nuclear facilities (2008) the 2007 agreement of the Six-Party Talks (SPT)

III. Reasons for EagernessUS economic & military pressure, hindering the DPRK’s : 1) economic development 2) normalization with Japan 3) improvement in inter-Korean relations

I. The ROK: having good reasons to take the lead 1) Reunification as a national goal 2) Unrestricted inter-Korean exchanges strongly desired 3) Great economic gains expected

II. China & Russia: important facilitators/partners Economic gains expected 1) China: the leading economic partner of the DPRK aid, trade, investment, etc E.g. investment in Rajin (railways, roads, port facilities) access to the Sea of Japan development of northeastern provinces 2) Russia: interest in exporting natural resources via the DPRK investment in Rajin (railways, port facilities) development of the far eastern region

III. A High Time for the ROK to Take the lead Because: the DPRK gives the priority to economic development progress in nuclear & missile developments

I. Economic Benefits Greater peace in Northeast Asia more economic exchanges in the region economic growth in the region promote economic growth of Southeast Asia

II. Security Benefits May weaken China’s hardline stance prompted partly by strengthening of US alliances with Japan & the ROK in response to their growing tensions with the DPRK

Source: www.cnn.com

Source: www.cnn.com

Source: the United Nations

The Khasan-Rajin Railways

Source: Associated Press

The Khasan-Rajin Railways

Source: www tumenprogramme org

Rajin: Railways & Port Facilities

Source: www bloomberg com.jpg

Rajin: Railways & Port Facilities

Source: www. ajw. asahi.com