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© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified,or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian Information Solutions, Inc.
Drive Market Share Gains -Automotive Industry Insights: Q3, 2010
Jeffrey Anderson, Director of Consulting & Analytics
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 2
Presentation Overview
Third Quarter 2010 Automotive Market Overview• Vehicles in Operation (VIO)• Vehicle Registrations
• New and Used
• New Vehicle Market Share• Purchase Loyalty
• Corporate and Brand
• Other Market Impacts• Minivan Battle• Orphan Brands• Horsepower vs MPG• Hybrid Share• Impact of Gas Prices
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Understanding the Customer Leveraging Experian’s “best in class” data assets
NationalFraud
Database
650 million+ vehicles in U.S. (all 50 states & Wash. D.C.) and Canada, including 280million+ vehicle in operationIncludes title, registration, mileage readings, key vehicle events5.5B+ vehicle history records, including 270M+ title brands and 92M+ accident related events
OnlineActivity
DatabasesCredit
Databases
ConsumerMarketing Databases
Simmons National
Consumer Study
North AmericanVehicle
Database
Integrated Information Assets
50,000 + adults surveyed annually 8,000+ brands in 450+ product categoriesMeasures television viewing, newspaper and magazine readership, internet usage, radio listening plus mobile700+ psychographic measuresEasily extrapolated to any target file
25 million Internet usersinteracting with one million Websites across 160+ industriesAverage of 60 billion emails sent on behalf of clients per year
Consumer2 million credit inquiries daily1.3 billion transaction updates/month99.9% system availability1.3 second response rate220 million credit active consumers50 million public records
Business22 million businesses
235 million consumers, 113 million households1,500+ data attributes per recordAttitudinal segments and touch-points3,200 public and proprietary sources110 million catalog buyers148 million magazine subscribers
Approximately 600,000 knownfraud records186+ million cross-industry credit applications215+ million consumer200 +demographic and credit records
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VEHICLESIN
OPERATION
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AutoCount Vehicles in Operation (VIO)
Experian Automotive’s AutoCount VIO is a compilation of all new and used vehicles registered on the road in the U.S.
Quick Facts…
• There are 240,282,742 light duty vehicles on the road
• Up over 480,000 units from last quarter (+0.20%)
And up nearly 500,000 units vs. Q3 2009
• Ford is the most prevalent make, followed by Chevrolet and Toyota
• Ford F150 is the largest volume model, followed by the Honda Accord
• Trucks continue to maintain majority vs. cars (50.3% vs. 49.7%)
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Current VIO – U.S. Summary by Model Year
Source: Experian Automotive as of September 30, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
82 percent of vehicles are 15 years old or less
82%Nearly 90 million 2001-2006 : aftermarket ‘sweet spot’
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Current VIO – Vehicle Segment
Hybrid vehicles represent 0.74 percent of current VIO
Source: Experian Automotive as of September 30, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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Current VIO – Percent Share
Source: Experian NVDB as of September 30, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
GM
Ford
Toyota
Honda
Chrysler
HyundaiNissan
Other
Vehicles In Operation: Share by Manufacturer
• Domestic brands represent more than 60 percent of all vehicles in operation
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Import Brand VIO Share
2007 2008 2009 2010
VIO
Sha
reCurrent VIO – Domestic vs. Import Share
Source: Experian NVDB as of September 30, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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Horsepower Trends
Source: Experian Automotive as of September 30, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
Average Horsepower by Model Year
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VEHICLE REGISTRATION
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U.S. Automotive Market Overview
• Q3 2010 vs Q3 2009, new vehicle registrations decreased by nearly 78,000 units (2.7 percent )
• Q3 2009 included Cash for Clunkers• 690,000 units, 1/3 of Jul/Aug regs
12
Total Vehicle Registrations by Quarter
New Vehicle Registrations
Source: Experian Automotive
Used registrations are increasing in proportion to new registrations: 2.5x new in 2007, peaking at 4.2x in Q1 2009
2008 2009 2010
Cash for Clunkers
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U.S. Market – New Vehicle Registrations
New Vehicle Registrations
Q1 and Q2 increasing gap
compared to prior quarters, Q3 2010 continuing trend in context of cash for clunkers in 2009
Source: Experian Automotive
2008
2009
2009
2010
2009
2010
2009
2010
C4C
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Used Vehicle Registrations
U.S. Market – Used Vehicle Registrations
Used vehicle registrations have dropped slightly compared to Q3 2009, as last four
quarters have been fairly consistent over prior year
Source: Experian Automotive
2008
2009
2009
2010
2009
2010
2009
2010
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 15
Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Diff. % ChangeGM 582,880 532,082 (50,798) -8.7%Toyota 445,265 449,919 4,654 1.0%Ford 472,178 443,511 (28,667) -6.1%Honda 327,686 309,978 (17,708) -5.4%Chrysler 276,778 286,270 9,492 3.4%Nissan 220,951 225,864 4,913 2.2%Hyundai 253,630 221,113 (32,517) -12.8%
New Vehicle Market Overview
New Vehicle Registrations – Q3 2010 vs. Q2 2010
Source: Experian Automotive
• Chrysler had highest unit gain versus Q2 2010, up nearly 9,500 units (3.4 percent) and narrowing gap to Honda
• Nissan had second-highest unit and percentage point gain, followed by Toyota
• GM had the largest unit drop, down more than 50,000 units vs Q2 2010 (-8.7 percent)
• Hyundai had the largest percentage point drop, down 12.8 percent (32,500 units)
Corporation
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Market ChangersN
ew R
egis
tratio
ns
Source: Experian Automotive
Grand Cherokee up nearly
16,000 units
Ranked by Unit Change
RAV4 and Camry up combined
10,000 units
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 17
M&M’s (Market Movers)
Ranked by % change
New
Reg
istra
tions
Source: Experian Automotive
Sportage up 3,213 units
Grand Cherokee up 15,874 units
Golf up 1,763 units
Nitro up 1,749 units
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 18
NVE (New Vehicle Entries) Q3 Performance
• Numerous small and mid-size coupes and sedans entering market
• New entries represent more than 40,000 additional sales for 3rd quarter
New Vehicle RegistrationsSource: Experian Automotive
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MARKET SHARE
OVERVIEW
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Who is up? • Ford 1.2% share• Chrysler 0.5% share• Hyundai 0.4% share
GM
Ford
ToyotaHonda
Chrysler
Hyundai
Nissan
Other
2010
Manufacturer Market Share Analysis
Who is down? • Toyota -1.3% share• Honda -0.5% share• GM -0.3% share
Q3 2010 YTD vs Q3 2009 YTD Market Share
GM
Ford
Toyota
Honda
Chrysler
Hyundai
Nissan
Other
2009
Source: Experian Automotive
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Market Share Trend
21
Source: Experian Automotive
Manufacturer Market Share Analysis
2008 2009 2010
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Q3 2010 YTD vs Q3 2009 YTD Market Share
22
Source: Experian Automotive
Manufacturer Market Share Analysis - The ‘Others’
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Q3 2010 vs Q2 2010 Market Share
23
Source: Experian Automotive
• Mix of vehicles helping to drive share for Ford, Chrysler, Nissan
• Small / Mid-Range car drop impacting share for Toyota, Honda, GM
Market Share Analysis: Model Level
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Market Share Analysis: Segment Level
Full Size Pickup
SUV -Large Minivan
Sport Car Touring
Small Car -
Economy
• Full Size Pickup segment had greatest market share increase in Q3 2010 when compared to Q2 2010
• Entry Level CUV, Small Car Budget, SUV Lower and Entry Level had strong increases
• Mid Range Car Lower and Small Car Economy had large market share drops
Source: Experian Automotive
Mar
ket S
hare
Cha
nge
CUV –Entry Level
Small Car Budget
Q3 2010 vs Q2 2010 Market Share
SUV –Entry Level
SUV –Lower
Mid Range
Mid Range Car -
Lower
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Market Share Analysis: New Vehicle Registrations
Import Brand Market Share
Mar
ket S
hare
2007 2008 2009 2010
Import Brands exceed 50 percent market share
Gas Price Spikes to over $4.00 per gallon
Cash For Clunkers
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Market Share Analysis:New Vehicle Registrations and VIO
Import Brand Market Share
2007 2008 2009 2010
Mar
ket S
hare
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CUSTOMERLOYALTY
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Loyalty Methodology
•Multiple Levels
Garage loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned, including vehicles currently in the garage or disposed up to 90 days prior to the new vehicle purchase.
Provides complete view of repurchase activity
Disposal loyalty measure whether a new vehicle purchase matches a vehicle disposed of +/- 90 days of the new vehicle purchase.
Essentially tracking vehicle replacement
Honda
Honda
Honda
Acura
Owned Vehicle:
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Loyalty Types
•Multiple Levels
Corporate Loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the corporate level. Includes all brands under the corporate umbrella
Brand Loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the brand level. Honda
Honda
Honda
Acura
Corporate Loyalty Example:
Brand Loyalty Example:
Owned Vehicle:
Owned Vehicle:
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Q3 2010 Corporate Loyalty
30
• Ford remains on top versus GM and Toyota in corporate loyalty – 3rd straight quarter on top
• Hyundai widens gap vs. Honda, nearing Toyota• Chrysler continues to increase
Market Overview - Loyalty
Corporate Loyalty by Month
• Hyundai narrows gap to leaders
• Chrysler on upward trend
• GM and Ford ended quarter with rising loyalty
• Toyota loyalty stableSource: Experian Automotive
20102009
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Brand Loyalty – Top Gainers for Q3 2010
Source: Experian Automotive
• Luxury brands represent eight out of the top ten spots in terms of proportional gain in loyalty
• Jeep and Kia brands also show strong increases
• Mercedes-Benz had highest point gain, more than four percentage points
Q3 2010 vs Q2 2010 Brand Loyalty: ranked by % change
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 32
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Kia Forte
Ford Fusion
Ford Edge
Ford Flex
Ford Five Hundred
Ford Focus
Chevrolet Impala
Ford Escape
Kia Soul
Kia Sorento
Brand Loyalty by Model: Top 10
Q3 2010 Brand Loyalty
32
Source: Experian Automotive
• Kia Forte owners were most brand loyal, with more than two out of three returning to the Kia brand
• Ford vehicles made up six of the top ten in brand loyalty
• Kia had three out of top ten models
• Chevrolet Impala owners were ranked seventh in brand loyalty
Model Owned
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2007 – Who took from Whom?
64,000
Net UnitsFord (471,254)GM (330,313)Chrysler (225,213)Honda 325,555Toyota 701,225
Net Owner Migration
GM Ford
Toyota
Chrysler
Honda
Source: Experian Automotive
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Q3 2010: Who’s taking from Whom?
59,802
Net UnitsGM (161,831)Chrysler (143,836)Ford 50,079Toyota 113,814Honda 141,774
Net Owner Migration
Chrysler
GM
Source: Experian Automotive
Ford
ToyotaHonda
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 35Net Owner Migration
Chrysler
GM
Source: Experian Automotive
Ford
ToyotaHonda
Q3 2010: Net Migration to Hyundai
Hyundai16,775
Nissan
5,78
9
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 36Net Owner Migration
Chrysler
GM
Source: Experian Automotive
Ford
ToyotaHonda
Q3 2010: Net Migration to Nissan
Nissan8,488
5,78
9
Hyundai
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 37
Source: Experian Automotive
Battle for Market Share
Hyundai
Nissan46.0%
35.4%
Corporate LoyaltyMarket Share
Q3 2010 Market Share and Loyalty
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ADDITIONALINDUSTRYINSIGHTS
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BATTLE OF THE
(MINI)VANS
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Minivan Segment – Opportunity for new entries?
Source: Experian Automotive
Total Market
Minivan Share
Share of Minivan Segment by Brand
Q3 2010 YTD Market Share
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ORPHAN BRANDS
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 42
Orphan Brands – Are Owners Maintaining Loyalty?
Source: Experian Automotive
2008 201020092007
• Mercury owners most loyal of recent orphan brands
• More Pontiac owners returned to market than Buick or Cadillac owners –
• These Pontiac owners netted as many GM sales as Buick and Cadillac owners
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HORSEPOWER VS. M.P.G
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Horsepower and Miles Per Gallon
• Since 1997:• 30+ percent
increase in HP• 15+ percent
increase in MPG
• CAFE standard: 34.1 mpg by 2016
• 20 percent increase vs 2010
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HYBRID MARKET SHARE
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46
Source: Experian Automotive
Hybrid Market Share
2008 2009 2010
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47
Source: Experian Automotive
Hybrid Car Market
• Prius captured nearly 64 percent of all hybrid car sales in Q3 2010
• Combined, Toyota and Honda accounted for more than 90 percent of all hybrid car sales
Q3 2010 Market Share
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48
Source: Experian Automotive
Hybrid Option Share by Model
2008 2009 2010
Per
cent
Hyb
rid
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49
Source: Experian Automotive
Hybrid Option Share - Total
2008 2009 2010
Per
cent
Hyb
rid
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IMPACT OF GAS PRICES
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 51
Mar
ket S
hare
Gas Prices vs. Vehicle Choices:Economy Car and Full Size Truck
Source: Experian Automotive, U.S. Dept. of Energy
2008 20102009
• Gas prices have since been relatively stable, and Economy Car share has dropped to 10 percent
• Two mini-spikes in 2009 as gas prices had quick 40 and 60 cent per gallon increases
• Initial spike in Economy Car segment tied to 2008 gas price exceeding $4.00 per gallon
Economy Car Full Size Pickup
Gas
Pric
e pe
r Gal
lon
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 52
Mar
ket S
hare
Fuel Prices vs. Vehicle Choices:Hybrid Car and Large SUV
• Since peak share of 2.5 percent in mid-2009, hybrid share steady at 2.0 percent
2008 20102009
Source: Experian Automotive, U.S. Dept. of Energy
• Second increasing trend more closely tied to gas price increase thru 2009
• Short spike in hybrid car segment tied to 2008 gas price at $4.00+ per gallon
Gas
Pric
e pe
r Gal
lon
Hybrid Car Large SUV
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 53
Conclusions
Strong overall results for Q3 2010, even when compared to Q3 2009 (with Cash for Clunkers), and when compared to Q2 2010.Ford has gained market share for sixth consecutive quarter, up 1.2 percentage points. Chrysler gained market share for the first time in six quarters. Hyundai and Nissan continue to gain market share. While Toyota and GM lost share (more than two percentage points combined).Ford continues to generate highest corporate loyalty, on top for third straight quarter. Hyundai is nearing Toyota in terms of corporate loyalty.New hybrid and economy vehicles are entering a challenging, dynamic market. Demand can be volatile… a lot is riding on the future of gas prices.Horsepower and Miles Per Gallon have both increased over the past decade. What choices will consumers (and manufacturers) make as market heads to 34.1 m.p.g. CAFE standard in 2016?
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