earthquakes forecasting hu

Operational Earthquakes Forecasting:

The Case of Industrial Plants

Sigalit ShaharHazmat 2016

The threat• Structural damage to a facility containing hazardous

substances may cause:

Release of toxic vapors and fumes Extensive fire Massive explosion Adverse environmental impact Substantial financial loss Loss of credibility

In earthquakes, this picture is even more critical due to the combination of:

The stochastic behavior of seismic phenomena The chemical hazards Existing processes in the industry were rarely designed according to a seismic standard. Assistance from community rescue-forces is questionable

Direct impact on industryFatalities,

injuries, and trapped people

Damage to buildings earthquake

industry

Loss of containment of

hazardous substances

Major accident of hazardous

substance(s)

On-goingincident

What if we can get a forecast for the next earthquakes?

All our protection layers must be reviewed:

Community Emergency Response

Preparations at state-level:• Deployment of (out-numbered) rescue forces:

hospitals, schools, city center, shopping-malls OR industrial parks

• Assessment of the rescue-services, or extent of rescue services that will be postponed

• Dynamic decision making on priorities

Plant Emergency Response• Emergency response teams (ERTs) to be in

alert phase: adoption of military procedures that are highly irregular in industry-lives

• Administrative procedures 1: for example minimizing the number of employees on site

• Administrative procedures 2: minimizing the quantities of hazardous substances

MittigationEmergency preparedness:• Starting up emergency systems: scrubbers, ventilation,

electricity and more• Verifying that all water reservoirs are filled and in operation• Verifying that all first-aid, communication and rescue

equipment are in operation• Sheltering• Close all stop-valves such as drain valves, storm-water valves

and more• Deployment of fire fighting equipment• Deployment of mobile gas monitors• Minimizing the current stock of hazardous substances• If appropriate, storage of food and drinking water

PreventionCommencing shutdown procedures according to a pre-determined plan based on risk analysis

F3 M M H H

F2 L M M H

F1 L L M M

F0 L L L M

S0 S1 S2 S3F = Frequency CodeS = Severity CodeHAZARD CATEGORY CODES:[L] Low risk - Nice to have[M] Moderate risk - Action required[H] Critical risk - Must take action

ControlPre-planning:• Resistance to earthquakes built-in to the design• Physical protection and retrofitting against earthquakes• Design of automatic and passive safeguards• Design of automatic shutoff systems: shutoff valves,

emergency shutdown procedures and more• Design of secondary containment systems to handle loss

of containment scenarios

Case Study: Ammonia plant•Threat Zone:

1,500 meters radius

•Potentially exposed

population: 30,000

•Worst case Scenario: 145

fatal casualties (average)

Case Study: Ammonia plant•Ammonia is a toxic gas. Uncontrolled release of

ammonia could be fatal .loss-of-containment Scenario (3 examples only) Casualties Damage Cost (M US$)

Rupture of Ammonia Receiver 19 24.6

Release of Entire Content of Ammonia Receiver within 10 Minutes

145 195

Leak from a 10 mm Diameter Hole in Ammonia Receiver 16 21.5

…