eastern region aviation overview fred mcmullen regional aviation meteorologist 631-244-0125...

Eastern Region Aviation OverviewEastern Region Aviation Overview

Fred McMullen

Regional Aviation Meteorologist

www.erh.noaa.gov

631-244-0125

Fred.McMullen@noaa.gov

Fred McMullen

Regional Aviation Meteorologist

www.erh.noaa.gov

631-244-0125

Fred.McMullen@noaa.gov

2

OrganizationOrganization

2

CWSUs

Full Support of NAS

VAACs and

MWOs

WFOs

NCEP/AWC

Eastern Region BreakdownEastern Region Breakdown

Central Weather Service UnitsCentral Weather Service Units

Eastern Region BreakdownEastern Region Breakdown

• 23 Weather Forecast Offices

• 4 Central Weather Service Units

• 133 TAFs four times daily

• 11 Airports are 30 hour TAFs

• Site Specific Amendment Criteria at

– BWI, CLT, DCI, EKN, and IAD

• 23 Weather Forecast Offices

• 4 Central Weather Service Units

• 133 TAFs four times daily

• 11 Airports are 30 hour TAFs

• Site Specific Amendment Criteria at

– BWI, CLT, DCI, EKN, and IAD

Eastern Region BreakdownEastern Region Breakdown

• Airport Weather Warnings issued at 7 locations

– ALY, BOS, BUF, CAE, ILM, MYR, PVD

• Criteria varies from airport to airport:

– Surface wind gusts >40 knots

– Onset of freezing rain

– Cloud to ground lightning within 5 miles of the airport

– Thunderstorms with >½ inch hail

– Onset of heavy snow

• Airport Weather Warnings issued at 7 locations

– ALY, BOS, BUF, CAE, ILM, MYR, PVD

• Criteria varies from airport to airport:

– Surface wind gusts >40 knots

– Onset of freezing rain

– Cloud to ground lightning within 5 miles of the airport

– Thunderstorms with >½ inch hail

– Onset of heavy snow

Regional Aviation DutiesRegional Aviation Duties• Liaison between NWS Headquarters and Weather Forecast

Offices

• Liaison between NWS Headquarters and Central Weather Service Units

• Review feedback between WFOs and Aviation community

• Collaborate with FAA, other NWS Regional Headquarters, and Aviation Weather Center

• Formulate Policy

• Quality Control

• Coordinate Sub-Regional Aviation Workshops

• Facilitate establishment of new TAFs and Airport Weather Warnings

• Improve Aviation Verification Numbers

• Liaison between NWS Headquarters and Weather Forecast Offices

• Liaison between NWS Headquarters and Central Weather Service Units

• Review feedback between WFOs and Aviation community

• Collaborate with FAA, other NWS Regional Headquarters, and Aviation Weather Center

• Formulate Policy

• Quality Control

• Coordinate Sub-Regional Aviation Workshops

• Facilitate establishment of new TAFs and Airport Weather Warnings

• Improve Aviation Verification Numbers

CWSU ImprovementsCWSU Improvements• AWIPS Remote Display (ARD)

• AvnFPS TAF monitoring program

• Chat software

• Web recording software

• Conference calls with WFOs

• Work TAFs

• AWIPS Remote Display (ARD)

• AvnFPS TAF monitoring program

• Chat software

• Web recording software

• Conference calls with WFOs

• Work TAFs

Collaboration = ConsistencyCollaboration = Consistency

• Daily conference calls between CWSU New York, WFOs New York City and Philadelphia.

• Preliminary TAFs generated and collaborated for Dulles and Boston between CWSUs and WFOs.

• CWSU New York and Atlanta daily conference calls with Delta Meteorologists

• Daily conference calls between CWSU New York, WFOs New York City and Philadelphia.

• Preliminary TAFs generated and collaborated for Dulles and Boston between CWSUs and WFOs.

• CWSU New York and Atlanta daily conference calls with Delta Meteorologists

CWSU ZDC – WFO SterlingCWSU ZDC – WFO Sterling

VerificationVerification

• NWS Goals FY 2009

– Probability of Detection (POD) 0.64

– False Alarm Rate (FAR) 0.36

• Eastern Region FY 2008

– POD 0.65

– FAR 0.33

• NWS Goals FY 2009

– Probability of Detection (POD) 0.64

– False Alarm Rate (FAR) 0.36

• Eastern Region FY 2008

– POD 0.65

– FAR 0.33

Albany Aviation On DemandAlbany Aviation On Demand

• Near teal time feedback• Near teal time feedback

Albany Aviation VerificationAlbany Aviation Verification

• Creates historical database

• Six hour verification

• Conduct research on specific events

• Daily backup

• Creates historical database

• Six hour verification

• Conduct research on specific events

• Daily backup

VerificationVerification

FutureFuture

New York City 2040?New York City 2040?

Experimental Digital ServicesExperimental Digital Services• Ceiling Grids• Ceiling Grids

Click HereClick Here

Digital Aviation Forecasts

Digital Aviation Forecasts

Experimental Digital ServicesExperimental Digital Services

Visibility GridsVisibility Grids

Weather Impacted Traffic Index(WITI)

Weather Impacted Traffic Index(WITI)

• CCFP

• TAF

• Metars

• Near real time verification of aviation forecast and impacts

• CCFP

• TAF

• Metars

• Near real time verification of aviation forecast and impacts

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Date

NAS Wx Index (NCWD/METAR), WITI-FA (4-hr Lookahead CCFP/TAF), and their "Delta", Last 30 Days

NWX (WITI)

WITI-FA 4hr

Delta

NAS Weather Index (WITI) vs. Combined WITI-FA and Delta (“forecast goodness”)

Negative delta = Under-forecast of traffic impact

Positive delta = Over-forecast of traffic impact

30-day period ending 11/12/2008

NWX = 100 is a “normally-impacted ” day

Delta > +/-50 may indicate a forecast “issue”

November 12, 2008 21

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Eastern Region TWITI and TWITI_FA, Normalized, Last 7 Days

Delta TWITI_FA

TWITI

TWITI_FA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 5

AAR

Hour, Z

BOS, Nov 8, 2008 Arrival Rates

Actual arrivals

Arr rate based on METAR

Arr rate based on 4hr TAF

Scheduled arrivals

OEP Airports AnalysisOEP Airports Analysis

Under-forecast at BOS (actual ceilings, 600-700 Ft, lower than forecast ceilings, 1300-1500 Ft) – however, no impact on operations due to low traffic demand on a Sunday

Terminal WITITerminal WITI