electoral college consequences

Electoral College Consequences

Winner-take-all Winner-take-all Battleground statesBattleground states

Targeted in campaignsTargeted in campaignsPolicy benefitsPolicy benefits

Depresses turnoutDepresses turnout Build broad geographical coalition Build broad geographical coalition Misfire?Misfire?

Bush 3.5 million popular vote marginBush 3.5 million popular vote margin Swing of 150,000 votes in OhioSwing of 150,000 votes in Ohio

Britain’s Division Head of StateHead of State

Head of Government

President wears “many hats”

Chief of State Chief of State Manager of the Economy Manager of the Economy Chief Executive Chief Executive Commander-in-Chief Commander-in-Chief Chief Diplomat Chief Diplomat Chief Legislator Chief Legislator Chief of the Party Chief of the Party World LeaderWorld Leader

Constitutional Basics

Normative ?-- Normative ?-- Hamilton, Fed No. 70. Hamilton, Fed No. 70. Energy in the Executive Energy in the Executive one person officeone person office elected for a fixed termelected for a fixed term national constituencynational constituency Vague formal powers from ConstitutionVague formal powers from Constitution

Constitutional DNA

HamiltonHamilton ““Energy in the Energy in the

Executive”Executive” One person officeOne person office Fixed termFixed term National National

constituencyconstituency Vague formal Vague formal

powerspowers

Few Formal Executive Powers

• Administrative head of government

• Commander-in-Chief of military

• Veto (or sign) legislation

• Nominate judges, cabinet secretaries

• Treaties, pardons, convene Congress

Modern Presidency

FDR’s Legacy

Wins World War IIWins World War II Ends the Great DepressionEnds the Great Depression Ends economic insecurity with Social Ends economic insecurity with Social

SecuritySecurity Fights for working man (unions, Fights for working man (unions,

minimum wage)minimum wage) Reduces agricultural poverty (farm Reduces agricultural poverty (farm

supports)supports)

The Modern PresidencyWWII onward

The FDR Standard (1932-45)

• Emphasis on leadership & bully pulpit• National problems• New role for federal government• President as active leader• Welfare state• Expanded executive branch (budget)

Paradox of the Modern Presidency President is #1President is #1

Increased expectations of presidencyIncreased expectations of presidency Increased staff, resourcesIncreased staff, resources Shift in quality and quantity of attention paid to Shift in quality and quantity of attention paid to

president president Chief policy-makerChief policy-maker

BUTBUT No change in formal powers!No change in formal powers!

New American President--Power of Clark Kent --Expectations of Superman

Going Public Strategy

PresidentsPresidents Marshall public support for their policies Marshall public support for their policies

and actionsand actions Cultivate popular cultural image of Cultivate popular cultural image of

themselvesthemselves

Public Approval of President

Three general trendsThree general trends Declines while in officeDeclines while in office EconomyEconomy Rally events and scandalsRally events and scandals

Beyond Presidential ControlBeyond Presidential Control

The Current Incumbent30

4050

6070

8090

100

June 049/11 Iraq SaddamInaug

George W. Bush Approval Ratings

Bush- Social Security Roadtrip

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling Social Security (USA Today/Gallup)

47

41 43

35

40

5248

56

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2002 2005/1 2005/2 2005/3

Approve Disapprove

What is George W. Bush’s image?

Macho

“Mission Accomplished”

Cowboy (not wimp)

Compassionate Conservative

Education President

====

Likes Children and Baseball

Patriotism

Going Public

Alternative Image?

Institutional Presidency

Jefferson in 1900 had 2 assistantsJefferson in 1900 had 2 assistants Brownlow CommitteeBrownlow Committee

““The president needs helpThe president needs help”” President not Congress should be in charge President not Congress should be in charge

of executive branchof executive branch

Presidency is Many People

EOP: OMB, NSC, CEA, “czars,” VP,and WHO

WHO: close advisors,no Senate approval

Where is the Power?

Cabinet OfficialsCabinet Officials Department of StateDepartment of State Department of Department of

Defense Defense Department of Department of

TreasuryTreasury

Exec. Office of Pres.Exec. Office of Pres. White House Office White House Office

(WHO)(WHO) NSCNSC OMBOMB CEACEA

Institutional Presidency I: West Wing

Institutional Presidency II: OEOB

Implications of Instit. Pres

Radical change in system of government?Radical change in system of government? Increased presidential control of policy Increased presidential control of policy

making and centralization of the decision making and centralization of the decision makingmaking

Increases potential for screw upsIncreases potential for screw ups Reduced accountabilityReduced accountability

Transition from Historical to Modern Presidency Historic PresidencyHistoric Presidency

President is a clerkPresident is a clerk Congress #1Congress #1

Modern PresidencyModern Presidency Increased popular expectationsIncreased popular expectations President #1President #1 No change in formal powersNo change in formal powers

Modern Presidents Response

Devote tremendous time and resources to Devote tremendous time and resources to manipulating public image manipulating public image Going publicGoing public

Have immense staff of political, policy, and Have immense staff of political, policy, and partisan expertspartisan experts Institutional presidencyInstitutional presidency

Are presidents stronger– YES, but Are presidents stronger– YES, but expectations outstrip capacityexpectations outstrip capacity

World’s Greatest Clerkship

Neustadt, Presidential Power (Al’s prof)Neustadt, Presidential Power (Al’s prof) power of president do not flow from literary power of president do not flow from literary

reading of constitutionreading of constitution Decisions are not self executing JFK, Cuban Decisions are not self executing JFK, Cuban

Missile CrisisMissile Crisis "The conditions that promote his leadership in "The conditions that promote his leadership in

form, preclude a guarantee of leadership in form, preclude a guarantee of leadership in fact." fact."

““presidential power is power to bargain”presidential power is power to bargain”

Limited formal powers=constant bargaining President canPresident can

Nominate judges, butNominate judges, but Propose trade treaties, butPropose trade treaties, but Propose popular legislation, butPropose popular legislation, but Propose spending less on military golf courses,Propose spending less on military golf courses,

Will Presidents keep their promises?Will Presidents keep their promises? Constitutional odds are stacked against them!Constitutional odds are stacked against them!

Presidential power = persuasion

Formal powers are minimalFormal powers are minimal Can propose legislation, C in CCan propose legislation, C in C Dependent on other institutions Dependent on other institutions

Informal powers are crucialInformal powers are crucial Presidential power is power to persuadePresidential power is power to persuade Presidents have to bargainPresidents have to bargain

Informal Powers

Professional reputationProfessional reputation Electoral resultsElectoral results BargainingBargaining

Carrot and the stickCarrot and the stick Marshalling public opinion (going public)Marshalling public opinion (going public)

The Stick and Senator Shelby

Dem criticizes Dem criticizes Clinton’s BudgetClinton’s Budget

Space Shuttle to TXSpace Shuttle to TX No Tickets for ‘Bama No Tickets for ‘Bama

Celebration at WHCelebration at WH Shelby’s response?Shelby’s response?

Unsuccessful Persuasion

Clinton Campaign PromiseClinton Campaign Promise Allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in Allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in

militarymilitary CongressCongress

Sam Nunn (D-GA) on the submarineSam Nunn (D-GA) on the submarine Don’t ask, don’t tell in Family Medical Leave Don’t ask, don’t tell in Family Medical Leave

ActAct C in C of MilitaryC in C of Military

Cruising chat rooms and gay barsCruising chat rooms and gay bars

Success of Don’t Ask/Don’t Tell

Source: CNN Special Source: CNN Special ReportReport

Truman and Marshall Plan

Truman’s prospects for Aid to EuropeTruman’s prospects for Aid to Europe Un-elected presidentUn-elected president Very unpopularVery unpopular Large GOP majorities in CongressLarge GOP majorities in Congress Memory of Great DepressionMemory of Great Depression Increasing IsolationismIncreasing Isolationism

Ranking Presidents

Will history judge Bill Clinton as a great Will history judge Bill Clinton as a great president? George W. Bush?president? George W. Bush?

Why or why not?Why or why not?

Ranking Post WW II Presidents

Good/GreatGood/Great TrumanTruman EisenhowerEisenhower JFKJFK

–LBJLBJ–ReaganReagan–ClintonClinton

Why such variety?Why such variety?

Bad/FailuresBad/Failures NixonNixon FordFord CarterCarter Bush (41)Bush (41)

Greenstein

Executive branch “reflects the character and Executive branch “reflects the character and personality of the president”personality of the president”

highly personalized nature of modern highly personalized nature of modern American PresidencyAmerican Presidency

Presidential success = Characteristics of Presidential success = Characteristics of Individual PresidentIndividual President

Effectiveness as Public Communicator

Bully PulpitBully Pulpit

Organizational Capacity

LoyaltyLoyalty Candid discussion Candid discussion Prevent group-thinkPrevent group-think

Political Skill

Establish reputation as Establish reputation as “skilled operator”“skilled operator”

Opposes, then SignsOpposes, then Signs Corporate Corporate

Responsibility ActResponsibility Act Homeland SecurityHomeland Security

Public opposesPublic opposes Tax CutsTax Cuts War in IraqWar in Iraq

Vision Thing

Possession of a set of Possession of a set of overarching goalsoverarching goals

Over-rated?Over-rated?

Cognitive Style

Presidency not a Presidency not a multiple choice testmultiple choice test

Reagan vs. CarterReagan vs. Carter

Emotional Intelligence

DisturbedDisturbed NixonNixon LBJLBJ

Risk-takersRisk-takers JFKJFK ClintonClinton

Skrownek

Presidents in Historical TimePresidents in Historical Time Times affects nature of skillTimes affects nature of skill

Political time as a resource for or constraint on a president

Regime Regime strengthstrength

President’s Party AffiliationPresident’s Party Affiliation

OpposedOpposed Affiliated Affiliated

Vulnerable regimeVulnerable regime Reconstructive Reconstructive presidentpresident

Disjunctive Disjunctive presidentpresident

Resilient regimeResilient regime Preemptive Preemptive presidentpresident

Articulator Articulator (Faithful Son) (Faithful Son)

presidentpresident

Political Time

The idea that at any given time there is a The idea that at any given time there is a dominant ideological regime, connected to, dominant ideological regime, connected to, but even broader than party. but even broader than party.

A president’s party’s relationship to the A president’s party’s relationship to the dominant partisan regime LIMITS or dominant partisan regime LIMITS or EXPANDS a president’s legitimate EXPANDS a president’s legitimate authority to change national policiesauthority to change national policies

Politics of Reconstruction

Greatest potential for Greatest potential for leadershipleadership

New ideological New ideological commitmentscommitments

Create new political Create new political coalitionscoalitions

Politics of Preemption

Constrained by dominant Constrained by dominant ideological regimeideological regime ““Era of big government Era of big government

is dead” NAFTA, is dead” NAFTA, Welfare reform, Welfare reform, balanced budgetbalanced budget

Focus on creative political Focus on creative political leadershipleadership V-Chip, New CovenantV-Chip, New Covenant

Danger or personal Danger or personal political isolationpolitical isolation

Politics of Articulation

““Normal” situationNormal” situation Deliver on Regime’s Deliver on Regime’s

unfulfilled policy agendaunfulfilled policy agenda Tax cuts, deregulation, Tax cuts, deregulation,

moral issuesmoral issues Partial birth abortion, Partial birth abortion,

abstinence education, gay abstinence education, gay marriagemarriage

Maintain Political CoalitionMaintain Political Coalition Prevent Moral-Economic Prevent Moral-Economic

splitsplit

Is a strong president good?

FramersFramers Can a president represent an entire nationCan a president represent an entire nation Woodrow Wilson/Teddy Roosevelt critiqueWoodrow Wilson/Teddy Roosevelt critique

Presidential Power- 2 views

It is not only the president’s "right, but his duty to It is not only the president’s "right, but his duty to do anything that the needs of the nation demanded do anything that the needs of the nation demanded unless such action was forbidden by the Congress." unless such action was forbidden by the Congress." T. RooseveltT. Roosevelt

The president can exercise no power which cannot The president can exercise no power which cannot be fairly and reasonably traced to some specific be fairly and reasonably traced to some specific grant of power .. either in the federal constitution or grant of power .. either in the federal constitution or in an act of Congress. There is no undefined in an act of Congress. There is no undefined residuum of power which he can exercise because it residuum of power which he can exercise because it seems to him to be in the public interest. William seems to him to be in the public interest. William Taft 1916.Taft 1916.