electoral consequences of unemployment experiences
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Ithaca, April 6, 2009Cornell Institute for European Studies
Thorsten FaasUniversity of Mannheim
Email: [email protected]
Electoral Consequences of Unemployment Experiences
1Schlozman/Verba 1979: Injury to Insult
Issue voting; electoral activity
Preference for economic policies designed to ease problem
Perception that government is respon-sible
Sense of economic dissatis-faction and deprivation
Unemploy-ment and/or low socio-economic status
SpecificModel
Level and direction of political activity
Policy preferences and programs
Politiciza-tion of the strain
Subjective Strain
Objective Condition
GeneralModel
Unemployment ExperiencesI
Perceptions of EconomyII
Attributions of ResponsibilityIII
Electoral ConsequencesIV
3Unemployment Experiences
Unemployment ...
• … as a discrete characteristic of individuals
• … ranging from short-term to long-term experiences
• ... also fear of unemployment as a relevant experience
• … as a characteristic of social/regional units
• … ranging from individuals‘household to network to regional contexts to the national economy
• Concentric circles
4Unemployment Experiences: Being Unemployed
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1991
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
East G. West G.
50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50Percent
Unemployed at time of interview
Unemployed anytime during last 10 years
Source: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aSource: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aged 18+ onlyged 18+ only
5Unemployment Experiences: Staying Unemployed
Source: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aSource: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aged 18+, who ged 18+, who have been unemployed during the last 10 years onlyhave been unemployed during the last 10 years only
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1991
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
East G. West G.
260 208 156 104 52 0 52 104 156 208 260Weeks
Completed Length (currently employed)
Completed Length (currently not employed)
Present Length (currently unemloyed)
6Unemployment Experiences: Fear of Unemployment
Source: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aSource: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aged 18+, who ged 18+, who are currently employedare currently employed
2006
2004
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1991
1980
East G. West G.
50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50Percent
7Unemployment Experiences: Household Perspective
Source: German Socioeconomic Panel (GSOEP), German citizens agedSource: German Socioeconomic Panel (GSOEP), German citizens aged 18+ only18+ only
2004200320022001200019991998199719961995199419931992199119901989198819871986198519841983
East G. West G.
40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40Percent
R unmployed (monthly basis)
HH member unemployed (monthly basis)
HH member unemloyed (yearly basis)
8Unemployment Experiences: Network Perspective
Source: Politbarometer, German citizens aged 18+ onlySource: Politbarometer, German citizens aged 18+ only
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
East G. West G.
75 50 25 0 25 50 75Percent
9Unemployment Experiences
• To fully understand the relevance of unemployment from a political science perspective, but also a political perspective, one should apply a differentiated view
• Simply focusing on the number of people currently unemployed is too short-sighted
Unemployment ExperiencesI
Perceptions of EconomyII
Attributions of ResponsibilityIII
Electoral ConsequencesIV
11Perceptions of the Economy
• ÊHow does the electorate internalize the objective economy and transform it into a subjective economy?” (de Boef/Kellstedt 2004: 633) – and what is the role of unemployment experiences?
• Concerning such perceptions, one should (in line with the literature) distinguish ...
– by the time frame used (retrospective, present, prospective)– by the object that is being evaluated (individual, regional, national economy)
• Unemployment experiences should have a strong impact on perceptions of the retrospective development and the present state of the economy (pertaining to an individual‘s situation, but also the national situation); fear of unemployment should have an impact on prospective ones
12Perceptions of Individuals’ Situation (East G.)
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
-1 -.5 0 .5 1Perceptions of current situation
Unemployed
Not employed
Employed
Source: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aSource: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aged 18+ onlyged 18+ only
13Perceptions of Individuals’ Situation (West G.)
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
-1 -.5 0 .5 1Perceptions of current situation
Unemployed
Not employed
Employed
Source: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aSource: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aged 18+ onlyged 18+ only
14Perceptions of Prospective Situation (East G.)
2006
2004
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
-1 -.5 0 .5 1Perceptions of prospective situation
Not worried
Worried
Source: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aSource: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aged 18+ onlyged 18+ only
15Perceptions of Prospective Situation (East G.)
2006
2004
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
-1 -.5 0 .5 1Perceptions of prospective situation
Not worried
Worried
Source: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aSource: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aged 18+ onlyged 18+ only
16Perceptions of National Economic Situation
• In relation to national unemployment
• Multilevel model (using the temporal context as level 2)
• Strong and significant effect of national employment rate on perceptions of the national economy
0.2
5.5
.75
1In
ve
rse
of
un
em
plo
ym
en
t ra
te
-1-.
50
.51
Ave
rag
e P
erc
ep
tio
n o
f cu
rre
nt
situ
atio
n
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006Jahr
Average Perceptions
Inverse of unemployment rate (right axis)
Source: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aSource: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aged 18+ onlyged 18+ only
Unemployment ExperiencesI
Perceptions of EconomyII
Attributions of ResponsibilityIII
Electoral ConsequencesIV
18Attributions of Responsibility
• Are individuals willing to and capable of linking perceptions of economic situations to governmental action
• Do they attribute responsibility?
• � institutional as well as psychological contingency dilemmas
• What are the determinants of attributed responsibility?
19Determinants of Attributions of Responsibility
• ÊDefensive attributions“
• ÊMorselizing“
• ÊContextualization“
• Political sophistication, partisan rationalizations and cultural predispositions
• Campaigns
20Data
• Rolling Cross-Section Survey covering the final 41 days of the 2005 German Federal Election campaign (n=3,583)
• Items:
– “What do you think, to what extent is the ruling government responsible for the development of this economic situation: to a large extent, to some extent or not at all?”
– Êthis economic situation“ refers to
• Individual’s own economic situation
• Situation of the national economy
21Data
• ÊDefensive attributions“
• ÊMorselizing“
• ÊContextualization“
• Political sophistication, partisan rationalizations and cultural predispositions
• Campaigns
Perceived State of own and national economic
Situation
Interaction term
Interest in Politics, Party Identification, Left-Right-Placement
Time
22Development of Level of Attributed Responsibility
0.5
1M
ea
n L
evel o
f A
ttributio
n
13.8. 20.8. 27.8. 3.9. 10.9. 17.9.date
Individual's economic situation Nation's economic situation
23Determinants of Attributed Responsibility for …
interaction
day
PI: other
PI: Union
PI: SPD
Left-Right
Interest
Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
interaction
day
PI: other
PI: Union
PI: SPD
Left-Right
Interest
Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
interaction
day
PI: other
PI: Union
PI: SPD
Left-Right
Interest
Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
interaction
day
PI: other
PI: Union
PI: SPD
Left-Right
Interest
Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
interaction
day
PI: other
PI: Union
PI: SPD
Left-Right
Interest
Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4logit coefficients
interaction
day
PI: other
PI: Union
PI: SPD
Left-Right
Interest
Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
interaction
day
PI: other
PI: Union
PI: SPD
Left-Right
Interest
Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
interaction
day
PI: other
PI: Union
PI: SPD
Left-Right
Interest
Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
interaction
day
PI: other
PI: Union
PI: SPD
Left-Right
Interest
Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
interaction
day
PI: other
PI: Union
PI: SPD
Left-Right
Interest
Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4logit coefficients
… Individual Economic Situation … National Economic Situation
24Determinants of Attributed Responsibility for …
… Individual Economic Situation
interaction
day
PI: other
PI: Union
PI: SPD
Left-Right
Interest
Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
interaction
day
PI: other
PI: Union
PI: SPD
Left-Right
Interest
Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
interaction
day
PI: other
PI: Union
PI: SPD
Left-Right
Interest
Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
interaction
day
PI: other
PI: Union
PI: SPD
Left-Right
Interest
Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
interaction
day
PI: other
PI: Union
PI: SPD
Left-Right
Interest
Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4logit coefficients
25Predicted Probabilities
0.2
.4.6
.81
pro
babili
ty
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Individual economic situation
... very poor
... poor
... average
... good
... very good
National economic situation ...
Unemployment ExperiencesI
Perceptions of EconomyII
Attributions of ResponsibilityIII
Electoral ConsequencesIV
27Consequences of Perceptions of Economic Situations
• Kinder/Kiewiet (1979): sociotropic vs. pocketbook voting
• Empirically, sociotropic voting prevails
• Additionally: policy-oriented voting according to which certain parties “own” specific issues, e.g. left parties “own”unemployment issue, tend to be supported by people making unemployment experiences
28Government Approval: Individual Unemployment
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
29Government Approval: Perceptions of Ind. Economy
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
30Government Approval: Perceptions of Nation. Econ.
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
31Government Approval: Individual Unemployment
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
32Government Approval: Perceptions of Ind. Economy
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
33Government Approval: Perceptions of Nation. Econ.
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
34Social Democrats: Individual Unemployment
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
35Social Democrats: Perceptions of Ind. Economy
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
36Social Democrats: Perceptions of Nation. Econ.
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
37Social Democrats: Individual Unemployment
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
38Social Democrats: Perceptions of Ind. Economy
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
39Social Democrats: Perceptions of Nation. Econ.
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
40Christian Democrats: Individual Unemployment
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
41Christian Democrats: Perceptions of Ind. Economy
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
42Christian Democrats: Perceptions of Nation. Econ.
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
43Christian Democrats: Individual Unemployment
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
44Christian Democrats: Perceptions of Ind. Economy
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
45Christian Democrats: Perceptions of Nation. Econ.
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
46Leftist Party/PDS: Individual Unemployment (East G.)
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
47Leftist Party: Perceptions of Ind. Economy (East G.)
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
48Leftist Party: Perceptions of Nat. Economy (East G.)
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
49Leftist Party: Individual Unemployment (West G.)
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
50Leftist Party: Perceptions of Ind. Economy (West G.)
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
51Leftist Party: Perceptions of Nat. Economy (West G.)
-3-2
-10
12
3u
nsta
nd
. re
gre
ssio
n c
oe
ffic
ien
ts
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
52But when including attributions of responsibility …
... feelings towards Social Democrats
Ind. Econ. X Resp.
Resp. Ind. Econ.
Resp. Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
Nat. Econ.
-2 -1 0 1 2unstand. regression coefficients
Ind. Econ. X Resp.
Resp. Ind. Econ.
Resp. Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
Nat. Econ.
-2 -1 0 1 2unstand. regression coefficients
Ind. Econ. X Resp.
Resp. Ind. Econ.
Resp. Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ.
Nat. Econ.
-2 -1 0 1 2unstand. regression coefficients
53Conclusions
• Unemployment experiences can take on several forms and should bestudied in a differentiated way
• Unemployment experiences leave their imprint on perceptions of economic situations on different layers
• Attributions of responsibility:
• Should be studied as dependent variables to understand the mechanisms that lead to attributions of responsibility
• Should be included in economic-voting models due to their nature as intervening variables
• Policy-, but also incumbency-oriented effects of unemployment depending on party and political context
54Thank you!
• Contact:Thorsten FaasUniversity of MannheimA5, 668131 MannheimGermany