long-term unemployment: causes, consequences and solutions heidi shierholz economist, economic...
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LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT: CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES
AND SOLUTIONS
Heidi ShierholzEconomist, Economic Policy Institute
May 26, 2010
EPI Forum
The gap in the labor market
Source: Author’s analysis of BLS data.
Jobs needed to keep up with population growth
2.9 million
7.8 million
10.7 million
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10122,000
124,000
126,000
128,000
130,000
132,000
134,000
136,000
138,000
140,000
142,000
Payr
oll
em
plo
yment
(thousa
nds)
Payroll employment
Unemployment far outpacing job openings
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-100
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Thousa
nds
Number unemployed
Number of job openings
Source: EPI analysis of CPS and JOLTS data.
April 2010: 15.3 million
March 2010: 2.7 million
5.6 Job seekers per job opening
Share of unemployed who have been jobless for over six months
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1 11 21 31 41 51 610
10
20
30
40
50
60
Perc
ent
of
tota
l unem
plo
yed April 2010: 45.9%
Current UI Benefits
• Regular benefits: Maximum of 26 weeks• Plus emergency benefits: Up to 73 additional weeks, (depending on the unemployment rate in your state)• Note: Under current law, emergency benefits begin to phase out next week.
Share of unemployed receiving UI
Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-100.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Share
of
tota
l unem
plo
yed
Recipients in all UI programs
Recipients in regular UI programs
Source: EPI analysis of ETA data.
68.0%
33.6%
What’s at stake
2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q40
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0.6
2.7
6.6
8.2
0.6
1.5
2.2
3.3
Unemployment insurance exhaustions : Current law versus preserving extensions through end of 2010
Current LawPreserving extensions
Cumulative UI exhaustion
Num
ber
of
work
ers
(m
illio
ns)
Source: ETA.
Number of Claimants Impacted by Delay in Extending EUC & EB
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
June 5 June 12 June 19 June 26 July 3 July 10Week ending
Nu
mb
er a
ffec
ted
For more information
Heidi [email protected]
Economic Policy Institute1333 H Street, NW
Suite 300, East TowerWashington, DC 20005-4707
202.775.8810
www.epi.org