esmrm risk analysis on deployed operations...• joint analysis and lessons learned process italian...
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ESMRM
RISK ANALYSIS
ON DEPLOYED
OPERATIONS
LTC. Antonino MIDOLOChief of FPE Doctrine & Studies Sectionantonino.midolo@esercito.difesa.it
ITALIAN ENGINEERS COMMAND
FP ENGINEERING SUPPORT CENTRE
MAIN TASKS
• Support FP Doctrine development• Develop FPE technical manuals• Conduct FP/FPE courses• Advising on FP/FPE matters• Develop research, experimentation and
test on FP/FPE materiel and equipment• Joint Analysis and Lessons learned
process
ITALIAN ENGINEERS COMMANDFP Engineering Support Centre
01 FEB 2016
AGENDA
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1. BACKGROUND ON FORCE PROTECTION (FP)
2. THE AMMUNITION DEPOTS DESIGN
3. CASE STUDY
4. CONCLUSIONS
1
BACKGROUND ON FP
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1. FP connections to ESMRM
2. Importance of ESMRM for FP
3. FP-ESMRM relationship
MINIMIZE VULNERABILITY FROM THREATS AND
HAZARDS ON OPERATIONS
• Contrast all form of threats• Preserve survivability• Prevent risks & hazards• Minimize uncertainty• Avoid fratricide fire
FORCE PROTECTION (FP)
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ESMRMInvolvement
MINIMISE VULNERABILITIES FROM
THREATs & HAZARDS
FP ENGINEERING (FPE)
� Physical Protection� Field Fortification� Fire Protection� Environmental Protection� Military Search
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ESMRMTechnical Support
Ammo DepotsDesign
2
THE AMMUNITION
DEPOTS DESIGN
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1. Reference
2. Criteria
3. Model
4. Process
MAIN DOCTRINAL & LAW REFERENCES
• AJP-04 “Allied Joint Logistic Doctrine”• AJP 3.14 (A) “Allied Joint Doctrine for Force Protection”• AD 80-25 “ACO Force Protection Directive”• Bi-SC 85-1 “Capability Package Directive”• ATP 3.12.1 “Allied tactical Doctrine for Military Engineering”• ALP 16 “Explosives Safety and Munitions Risk Management (ESMRM) in
NATO Planning, Training, and Execution”• National publication PSE 3.14.1 “Military Base Protection in Operations”• National Law n. 131/2016 (adoption of AASTP 1-5 in NATO operations)
ITALIAN ENGINEERS COMMANDFP Engineering Support Centre
FP/FPE Documents ESMRM Documents
MAIN TECHNICAL REFERENCES• STANAG 2280 “Test procedures and classification of the effects of weapon on
structures” - ATP 3.12.1.8• STANAG 2953 “The identification of ammunitions” - AOP-2• STANAG 4123 “Determination of the classification of military ammunition and
explosives” - AASTP-3• STANAG 4440 “Manual of NATO safety principles for the storage of military
ammunition and explosives” - AASTP-1• STANAG 4442 “Application of risk analysis to the storage and transport of
military ammunition and explosives” - AASTP-4• STANAG 4657 “NATO “Guidelines for the storage, maintenance and transport
of ammunition on deployed missions or operations” - AASTP-5• STANAG 7141 “Joint NATO doctrine for environmental protection during NATO
led military activities”• National SOP FPE (Engineering Techniques and Procedures)• National SOP FE (Field Engineering Techniques and Procedures)
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RestrictionsLimitations
Tempo
Standard & Design Criteria
OperationalRequirements
Site Information Requirements
Analysis
DrawingStatement of Works
Orders &Tasks
1 2 3
4
5
8
67
1- FEASIBILITY STUDY
2 - ON SITE RECCE3 - DESIGN PROCESS
BiddingProcess
AmmodepotDesigningProcess
FPE PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Mis
sion
Ana
lysi
sR
ealiz
atio
n
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PHASE 1 - FEASIBILITY STUDY
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PES LAY OUT (ESMRM)• Net Explosive Quantity (NEQ)• Hazard divisions – Compatibility Groups• Storage requirements• Hazardous areas• Field Distances - External Safety Distances• Barricades
PROTECTION MEASURES (FPE)• Physical & structural protections• Surveillance systems• Fire protection• Stand-off• Security procedures
TOOLS:• Technical manuals• AASTP 1-5• FP Model• FPE Standard• Technical Legislation
ESMRM RESTRICTIONS• Storage limitations• Initial Exposed Sites (ES)• Natural & mutual hazards
FPE RESTRICTIONS• Active security organization• Antiterrorism measures• FPE Materiel
PHASE 2 - ON SITE RECONNAISSANCE
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VERIFY APPLICABILITY OF THE FEASIBILITY
STUDY
OBJECTIVES OF ANALYSIS• Size of storage area• Terrain• Weather conditions• Viability• Switching stations• Electrical supply lines• General security conditions
RESTRICTIONS• Site selection (free or imposed) • Operational & national caveats• Severe weather conditions • Host Nation regulations• Environment hazards
PHASE 3 – DESIGNING PROCESS
1 Analysis ofAmmunition
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• ES characteristics• FP Model and ESMRM
comparison• Residual risk
evaluation• Final FD & ESD• Fire evaluations
4 AMMODEPOTphysical
protection measures (FPE)
6 Induced risks from
environment to PES-ES and vice versa
• Fire protectionequipment &firefighting procedures
• Precautions guidelines• Signs• Support plants• Access control
2 Identification of necessary
PES
3 AMMODEPOTDesigning
FP MODEL• Threat Assessment• Vulnerability
Assessment• Risk Assessment• Risk Management• FPE Designing
5 Analysis ofSafety Distances
(ESMRM)
3
CASE STUDY
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“A FPE Officers training with real
implications”
Task : design a munition depot in order to storage thecombat munitions day of supply and integrate itssafety measures into a FPE masterplan
FPE ASSUMPTIONS
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FSB Site assigned
Host Nation (HN) Barracks
Site assessment:• Part of a HN military barracks• Civilian houses and a main traffic road close
to the external site’s perimeter• Military accommodations and facilities close
to the internal site’s perimeter• Outer access control provided by HN• Perimeter fence only in the northern side
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HYPOTHESIZED FSB ZONING
Main gate
Secondary gate
STANDARD AND CONSTRAINS
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STANDARD:• STANAG 4657 “NATO “Guidelines for the storage, maintenance and
transport of ammunition on deployed missions or operations” - AASTP-5• National SOP FPE (FP Engineering Techniques and Procedures)
CONSTRAINS:• Site imposed by HN• High temperatures• Possible sand storms• Torrential rains AND…:
• Lessons Learned• Other similar projects realized in
operations
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AMMO DEPOT DESIGNING
2 AMMO DEPOTS EACH WITH 10 CONTAINERS
(1 available for future storages)
AMMO DEPOT ONE
AMMO DEPOT TWO
MAX QUANTITY IN CONTAINER: 180 KG
REFERENCE NEQ:
250(table 2-3 of the AASTP-5)
ES ANALYSIS (OUTSIDE FSB)
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Ammunition Depot Area
Exposed Sites
MilitaryAccommodation
Building
MilitaryStorages
Civilian Houses
HN HQ
Farmhouses
BarracksTraining Compounds
Fuel Installation
HighTrafficRoad
Distances (meters)50
50
100110
180
200
45
200
220
35
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ES ANALYSIS (INSIDE FSB)
Ammunition Depot Area
Distances (meters)
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AMMO DEPOT PROTECTIONS
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FIELD DISTANCES CRITERIA
REFERENCES:FD1-FD4-FD8
(table 2-2 of theAASTP-5)
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FIELD DISTANCES EVALUATION
REFERENCES FD1-FD4-FD8 (table 2-3 of the
AASTP-5)
REFERENCE NEQ:
250(table 2-3 of the AASTP-5)
50 M 100 M
Ammunition Depot Area
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ES ANALYSIS (SAFETY ARCS OUTSIDE FSB)
150 M
NORTHERN AREA
50 M 100 M
Ammunition Depot Area
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150 M
SOUTHERN AREA
ES ANALYSIS (SAFETY ARCS OUTSIDE FSB)
Ammunition Depot Area
50 M 100 M 150 M
ES ANALYSIS (SAFETY ARC INSIDE FSB)
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INNER AREA
Forbidden
building/area
Additional
Barriers
X
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FSB ESMRM RISKS MITIGATIONS (SOLUTION 1)
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New Semi
Hardened
Additional
Barriers
FSB ESMRM RISKS MITIGATION IMPROVEMENT (SOLUTION 2)
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OUTER FSB ESMRM RISKS MITIGATION IMPROVEMENT
1) Interdict using of houses and road insideyellow arc (accommodations in ALPHA &BRAVO areas)
2) Realize a road bypass for civilian localpopulation in area ALPHA
3) Support HN to relocate homeless in new houses
• High costs• Difficult to carry
out within locals• HN acceptance• Command level
residual riskacceptance
4
CONCLUSIONS
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1. Gaps and implications in the operational
evaluations
2. Improvement and integration within
staff procedures in operations
AASTP-5
• field distances doesn’t consider assets protection andfatalities/injuries from flying glass/materiel
• risk management:� suggests to evaluate risk mitigations with earth barriers or
natural barricades�doesn’t give indications about it (standard, tools, methods of
calculation, …)
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1. What are the gaps into ESMRM?
ESO
• needs knowledge, experience and properly training on explosivesto prepare the explosive safety case
• employment not only during operational phase
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• Gammy Risk Management• Different knowledge – different evaluations• Engineer/EOD SMEs constant support to ESO (if
available on site)
1. What consequences?
• What kind of explosive training is needed?• Is ESO to be an Engineer task (i.e. like EOD)?
ESMRMRisk Analysis
FP MODEL
ESMRM Explosive Safety
Site Plan
FP Officer(FP Woking
Group)
ExplosiveSafety Officer
(ExplosiveSafety Board)
Develop and Implement FP Controls and
Measures(FP PLANNING)
2. What implications in the operational evaluations?
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ESMRM IS NOT A STAND ALONE PROCESS
FPO
ESO
EPO
Environmental Baseline Studies
ESMRM Explosive Safety
Site Plan
FP Plans
ES
OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
THREATS
PES
NATURAL ENVIRONMENT
HAZARDS
ITALIAN ENGINEERS COMMANDFP Engineering Support Centre
2. What implications in the operational evaluations?
FPO
ESO
EPO
Environmental Baseline Studies
ESMRM Explosive Safety
Site Plan
FP Plans
ES
OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
THREATS
PES
NATURAL ENVIRONMENT
HAZARDS
FPWG
FPWG
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3. How we could improve and integrate the ESMRM
process within staff procedures in operations?
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