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EUpDates October 2016
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2016
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E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
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Contents Page
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www.ecofin-surge.co.in
Special Feature—Highlights of RBI’s Fourth
Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2016-17
Table of Contents
1. Key Rates to Remember
2. Indian Economy — Growth Indicators
3. Indian Economy — Price Indicators
4. Indian Economy — Banking Indicators
10. Global Economy — Economic Indicators
11. Global Economy — Stock Indices
12. Global Economy — Commodity Indices
5. Indian Economy — Exchange Rates
6. Indian Economy — Interest Rates
7. Indian Economy — Stock Markets
8. Indian Economy — Capital Flows
9. Indian Economy — Commodity Markets
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2016-17* 7.10% Aug-16 -0.70%
2015-16* 7.50% Aug-15 6.30%
As on 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-15 As on 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-15
Repo rate 6.50% 6.75% CRR 4.00% 4.00%
Reverse repo rate 6.00% 5.75% Base rate 9.30-9.65% 9.60-9.95%
MSF rate 7.00% 7.75% CMR 5.50-6.50% 5.60-7.20%
Inflation CPI-C* CFPI-C* WPI
Aug-16 5.05% 5.91% 3.74% Sep-16 45.06
Aug-15 3.74% 2.20% -5.06% Sep-15 46.29
*Base: 2012=100 US$ per barrel
September
52.1 30-Sep-16 66.6652.0 30-Sep-15 65.74
Nikkei Markit Mnfg. PMI
Nikkei Markit Services BAI
RBI Reference rate
For global rates visit: http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/publications.html
For explanations visit: http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/terminology.html
GDP IIP
Base : 2004-05=100.
Oil Price (World Average)
Purchasing Managers Index US$/Rupee Rate
*Q1; New Series (at 2011-12 prices).
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GDP Growth Rates
(at 2011-12 prices)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY
2016-17 7.1
2015-16 7.5 7.6 7.2 7.9 7.6 (PE)
GVA at Basic Price by
Economic Activity
1 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 3,67,623 2.6 3,74,390 1.8
2 Mining & quarrying 86,444 8.5 86,091 -0.1
3 Manufacturing 4,49,280 7.3 4,90,164 9.1
4 Electricity, gas, water supply &
other utlility services
57,037 4.0 62,378 9.4
5 Construction 2,25,637 5.6 2,29,092 1.5
6 Trade, hotels, transport,
communication and services
related to broadcasting
4,83,238 10.0 5,22,610 8.1
7 Financial, real estate &
professional services
5,81,471 9.3 6,35,963 9.4
8 Public administration, defence
and other services
3,00,705 5.9 3,37,630 12.3
9GVA at basic prices (1 to 8) 25,51,435 7.2 27,38,318 7.3
Estimates of Final
Expenditures on GDP
10 Private final consumption
expenditure (PFCE)
15,04,442 6.9 (55.2) 16,05,527 6.7 (55.0)
11 Government final consumption
expenditure (GFCE)
2,93,720 `-0.2 (10.8) 3,49,059 18.8 (12.0)
12 Gross fixed capital formation
(GFCF)
8,91,627 7.1 (32.7) 8,63,956 `-3.1 (29.6)
13 Changes in stocks (CIS) 50,754 3.6 (1.9) 54,345 7.1 (1.9)
14 Valuables 43,138 `(1.6) 22,129 `(0.8)
15 Exports 5,85,324 `-5.7 (21.5) 6,04,052 3.2 (20.7)
16 Less Imports 6,45,577 `-2.4 (23.7) 6,07,953 `-5.8 (20.8)
17 Discrepancies 761 `(0.0) 26,232 `(0.9)
18GDP (10 to 17) 27,24,188
7.5
(100.0)29,17,348 7.1 (100.0)
Growth Indicators
YoY
Growth
(Share in
GDP)
(%)
GDP
[at Constant(2011-12) prices]
2015-16
(Q1)
Rs.Crore YoY
Growth
(Share in
GDP)
(%)
2016-17
(Q1)
Rs.Crore
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1 GVA at basic prices 104,27,191 7.2 97,27,490 7.1
2 Taxes 11,90,986 7.5 11,08,339 8.0
3 Less Subsidies 2,67,929 -5.6 2,83,679 4.8
4GDP (1+2-3) 113,50,249 7.6 105,52,151 7.2
5 Net Domestic Product (GDP less
Consumption of Fixed Capital)
100,71,784 7.6 93,59,476 7.1
6 Net factor income from abroad -1,36,921 -1,24,450
7 Gross National Income (4+6) 112,13,328 7.5 104,27,701 7.3
8 Net National Income (GNI less
Consumption of Fixed Capital)
99,34,863 7.6 92,35,026 7.2
9 Population (in million) 1,283 1.3 1,267 1.3
10 Per capita GDP (Rs.) 88,466 6.2 83,285 5.9
11 Per capita GNI (Rs.) 87,399 6.2 82,302 6.0
12 Per capita PFCE (Rs.) 49,112 6.1 46,285 4.9
PE : Provisional Estimates; RE : Revised Estimates.
Index of Industrial Production Aug-16 Aug-15 Aug-16 FY2016-17 FY2015-16
General Index 175.3 176.6 -0.7 -0.3 4.1
1. Mining 113.5 120.2 -5.6 0.6 1.4
2. Manufacturing 184.3 184.8 -0.3 -1.2 4.5
3. Electricity 194.6 194.4 0.1 5.7 3.2
Index 2004-05 =100 Change (YoY, %)
Rs.Crore YoY
Growth (%)
GDP
[at Constant(2011-12) prices]
2015-16
(PE)
Rs.Crore YoY
Growth
2014-15
(1st RE)126.5
129.3
122.6
186.0
189.8
186.0
178.6
188.6
198.8
176.8181.1
178.3
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
IIP-Annual Averages (Base : 2004-05=100) Mining & Quarrying
(141.75)
Manufacturing (755.27)
Electricity (103.16)
General Index (1000.0)
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Wholesale Price Index
(Base: 2004-05=100)
(Inflation %)
All
Commodities
Primary Articles Food Articles Non-food
Articles
Crude
Petroleum
Manufactured
Products
July– 2016 184.2 (3.55) 270.4 287.8 236.7 180.2 156.6
August– 2016 183.1 (3.55) 268.9 284.2 236.3 184.3 156.7
September– 2016 182.8 (3.57) 263.9 279.6 230.3 180.6 157.1
Consumer Price Index
(Inflation %)
All India
General Index
(All Groups
combined)
Base 2010=100
Rural Areas (All
Groups) Base
2010=100
Urban Areas
(All Groups)
Base 2010=100
Industrial
Workers Base
2001=100
Rural
Labourers
Base 1986-
87=100
Agricultural
Labourers
Base 1986-
87=100
July– 2016 131.1 (5.05) (P) 133.5 (5.87) (F) 128.4 (4.22) (P) 280 (6.46) 881 (6.53) 877 (6.69)
August– 2016 131.1 (5.05) (P) 133.5 (5.87) (F) 128.4 (4.22) (F)) 278.0 881.0 876.0
September– 2016 130.8 (4.31) (P) 133.3 (4.96) (P) 128.0 (3.64) (P)
Price Indicators
Build up of inflation in the financial year so far is 4.45% compared to a build up of 0.23% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
F: Final; P: Provisional.
180.2
181.7
182.6
184.6
185.7
185.0
183.9
181.5
179.8
178.3
175.8
176.1
176.0
177.7
178.6
177.5
176.7
176.6
176.7
177.6
177.4
175.7
174.0
174.6
177.0179.4
182.0183.9 183.1 182.8
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
WPI (Base 2004-05=100) New Series
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
CPI Inflation –September 2016 Rural Urban Combined
Cereals & Pdcts. 4.40 3.81 4.17
Pulses & Pdcts. 19.92 4.96 14.33
Oils etc 4.71 4.58 4.65
Meat & Fish 5.34 6.74 5.83
Milk & Pdcts. 4.88 3.35 4.27
Vegetables -6.04 -9.26 -7.21
Food & Beverages 4.66 3.19 4.12
Fuel & Light 4.85 -0.26 3.07
Clothing etc 6.08 3.65 5.19
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
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March 31, 2016 August, 2016 September, 2016
Reserve Money 21,80,740 21,85,980 21,86,340
% change during the month 0.86 0.02
% change since March 31 0.24 0.26
(A) Components of Reserve Money (1+2+3)
1 Currency in circulation 16,63,460 17,28,190 17,27,880
% change during the month 0.26 (0.02)
% change since March 31 3.89 3.87
2 Banker's deposits with RBI 5,02,560 4,43,270 4,39,860
% change during the month 3.30 (0.77)
% change since March 31 (11.80) (12.48)
3 "Other" deposits with RBI 15,080 14,520 18,600
% change during the month 0.21 28.10
% change since March 31 (3.71) 23.34
(B) Sources of Reserve Money (4+5+6+7-8)
4 Net RBI credit to Government 4,25,330 7,38,540 6,99,650
% change during the month 5.03 (5.27)
% change since March 31 73.64 64.50
5 RBI credit to Banks & Commercial Sector 3,04,540 (93,900) (78,810)
% change during the month 410.60
% change since March 31 (130.83)
5.1 RBI credit to banks(including NABARD) 2,84,450 (1,00,780) (85,500)
% change during the month 288.36 (15.16)
% change since March 31 (135.43) (130.06)
5.2 RBI credit to Commercial Sector 20,090 6,880 6,690
% change during the month (8.99) (2.76)
% change since March 31 (65.75) (66.70)
6 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of RBI 23,83,480 24,47,890 24,70,920
% change during the month 0.31 0.94
% change since March 31 2.70 3.67
7 Govt's Currency Liabilities to the Public 21,910 22,600 23,270
% change during the month - 2.96
% change since March 31 3.15 6.21
8 Net Non-monetary Liabilities of RBI 9,54,170 9,29,160 9,28,690
% change during the month (5.22) (0.05)
% change since March 31 (2.62) (2.67)
Note: (i) Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers.
Banking IndicatorsCOMPONENTS & SOURCES OF RESERVE MONEY AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs. crore)
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March 31, 2016 August, 2016 September, 2016*
M3 116,54,340 122,28,910 121,90,570
% change during the month 1.54 (0.31)
% change since March 31 4.93 4.60
(A) Components of M3 ( 1+2+3+4)
1 Currency with the public 15,98,100 16,60,090 16,88,030
% change during the month (0.06) 1.68
% change since March 31 3.88 5.63
2 Demand deposits with banks 9,97,020 10,39,300 10,47,750
% change during the month 5.75 0.81
% change since March 31 4.24 5.09
3 Time deposits with banks 90,43,770 95,15,000 94,40,390
% change during the month 1.37 (0.78)
% change since March 31 5.21 4.39
4 Other deposits with RBI 15,450 14,520 14,400
% change during the month 6.84 (0.83)
% change since March 31 (6.02) (6.80)
(B) Sources of M3 (5+6+7+8-9)
5 Net bank credit to govt.(i+ii) 32,41,030 38,07,250 36,37,430
% change during the month 3.09 (4.46)
% change since March 31 17.47 12.23
i RBI's credit 4,25,000 7,38,540 6,08,460
% change during the month 5.56 (17.61)
% change since March 31 73.77 43.17
ii Other banks' credit 28,16,030 30,68,710 30,28,970
% change during the month 2.51 (1.30)
% change since March 31 8.97 7.56
6 Bank credit to commercial sector (i+ii) 78,21,910 78,59,910 78,45,480
% change during the month 0.66 (0.18)
% change since March 31 0.49 0.30
i RBI's credit 20,080 6,880 7,710
% change during the month (9.35) 12.06
% change since March 31 (65.74) (61.60)
ii Other banks' credit 78,01,830 78,53,040 78,37,760
% change during the month 0.67 (0.19)
% change since March 31 0.66 0.46
7 Net foreign exchange assets of the banking sector 24,90,710 25,98,140 26,12,110
% change during the month 0.90 0.54
% change since March 31 4.31 4.87
8 Government's currency liabilities to the public 21,910 22,600 22,600
% change during the month - 0.0
% change since March 31 3.15 3.1
9 NNML of the banking sector (i+ii) 19,21,210 20,59,000 19,27,050
% change during the month 0.18 (6.41)
% change since March 31 7.17 0.30
i RBI's NNML 9,54,170 9,29,160 9,22,510
% change during the month (4.39) (0.72)
% change since March 31 (2.62) (3.32)
ii Other bank's NNML(Residual) 9,67,040 11,29,840 10,04,540
% change during the month 4.28 (11.09)
% change since March 31 16.83 3.88
COMPONENTS & SOURCES OF MONEY STOCK (M3) AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs. crores)
Note: (i) Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers; (ii) *: Data are of September 16, 2016.
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Date Day Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month
1-Sep-16 Thu 66.98 67.36 68.05 68.93 74.70 75.17 76.07 77.34
2-Sep-16 Fri 66.84 67.23 67.94 68.82 74.79 75.26 76.18 77.47
5-Sep-16 Mon na na
6-Sep-16 Tue 66.54 66.95 67.56 68.48 74.30 74.80 75.64 76.92
7-Sep-16 Wed 66.39 66.78 67.43 68.32 74.67 75.16 76.03 77.30
8-Sep-16 Thu 66.44 66.83 67.49 68.42 74.99 75.47 76.38 77.68
9-Sep-16 Fri 66.69 67.07 67.76 68.64 75.20 75.67 76.57 77.83
12-Sep-16 Mon 66.93 67.34 67.98 68.88 75.11 75.61 76.48 77.73
13-Sep-16 Tue na na
14-Sep-16 Wed 66.91 67.30 67.97 68.87 75.11 75.60 76.49 77.75
15-Sep-16 Thu 67.04 67.42 68.08 69.02 75.37 75.85 76.76 78.04
16-Sep-16 Fri 67.00 67.38 68.06 68.98 75.19 75.68 76.58 77.86
19-Sep-16 Mon 66.98 67.37 68.06 68.97 74.75 75.24 76.16 77.42
20-Sep-16 Tue 67.03 67.44 68.08 68.99 74.93 75.44 76.29 77.57
21-Sep-16 Wed 67.03 67.41 68.06 68.97 74.74 75.20 76.07 77.34
22-Sep-16 Thu 66.68 67.06 67.75 68.62 74.92 75.40 76.28 77.55
23-Sep-16 Fri 66.67 67.05 67.68 68.58 74.78 75.25 76.14 77.36
26-Sep-16 Mon na na
27-Sep-16 Tue na na
28-Sep-16 Wed 66.48 66.84 67.54 68.43 74.50 74.96 75.87 77.15
29-Sep-16 Thu 66.48 66.84 67.54 68.43 74.50 74.96 75.87 77.15
30-Sep-16 Fri 66.63 67.02 67.68 68.60 74.45 74.95 75.85 77.15
Date Day Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month
1-Sep-16 Thu 88.71 89.23 90.21 91.55 64.61 65.04 65.81 66.93
2-Sep-16 Fri 88.63 89.21 90.19 91.51 64.57 65.00 65.80 66.91
5-Sep-16 Mon na na
6-Sep-16 Tue 88.87 89.43 90.36 91.71 64.37 64.81 65.56 66.66
7-Sep-16 Wed 88.82 89.37 90.29 91.64 65.35 65.79 66.56 67.67
8-Sep-16 Thu 88.80 89.33 90.31 91.68 65.36 65.80 66.59 67.73
9-Sep-16 Fri 88.82 89.34 90.32 91.63 64.98 65.41 66.20 67.30
12-Sep-16 Mon 88.83 89.38 90.32 91.63 65.66 66.12 66.89 68.00
13-Sep-16 Tue na na
14-Sep-16 Wed 88.23 88.77 89.72 91.04 65.15 65.59 66.39 67.48
15-Sep-16 Thu 88.56 89.09 90.03 91.40 65.55 65.99 66.79 67.91
16-Sep-16 Fri 88.22 88.75 89.71 91.06 65.76 66.20 66.99 68.13
19-Sep-16 Mon 87.38 87.91 88.90 90.21 65.77 66.22 67.01 68.16
20-Sep-16 Tue 86.90 87.45 88.39 89.68 65.78 66.25 67.00 68.14
21-Sep-16 Wed 87.08 87.59 88.50 89.82 66.28 66.72 67.48 68.62
22-Sep-16 Thu 87.16 87.68 88.62 89.92 66.20 66.65 67.47 68.55
23-Sep-16 Fri 86.42 86.92 87.83 89.10 66.13 66.57 67.37 68.44
26-Sep-16 Mon na na
27-Sep-16 Tue na na
28-Sep-16 Wed 86.54 87.02 88.00 89.30 66.02 66.44 67.27 68.37
29-Sep-16 Thu 86.54 87.02 88.00 89.30 66.02 66.44 67.27 68.37
30-Sep-16 Fri 86.33 86.86 87.80 89.13 65.81 66.25 67.06 68.19
Exchange RatesMovement of the Rupee (INR) (Average of Buying & Selling Rates)
Dollar Euro
Pound Yen
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
10
Euro
Date Day 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month
1-Sep-16 Thu 7.03 6.58 5.92 7.82 7.57 7.21
2-Sep-16 Fri 7.23 6.78 6.01 7.89 7.64 7.31
5-Sep-16 Mon na na
6-Sep-16 Tue 7.65 6.27 4.61 8.29 7.41 7.18
7-Sep-16 Wed 7.38 6.45 4.74 8.25 7.52 7.17
8-Sep-16 Thu 7.28 6.47 -100.00 7.96 7.59 7.29
9-Sep-16 Fri 7.06 6.57 2.61 7.68 7.49 7.12
12-Sep-16 Mon 7.51 6.42 1.50 8.20 7.47 7.08
13-Sep-16 Tue na na
14-Sep-16 Wed 7.32 6.52 5.94 8.20 7.55 7.17
15-Sep-16 Thu 7.02 6.38 5.99 7.92 7.58 7.21
16-Sep-16 Fri 7.12 6.51 6.00 8.02 7.57 7.23
19-Sep-16 Mon 7.31 6.64 6.03 8.16 7.76 7.29
20-Sep-16 Tue 7.59 6.38 5.92 8.48 7.46 7.16
21-Sep-16 Wed 7.02 6.26 5.86 7.73 7.31 7.09
22-Sep-16 Thu 7.15 6.58 5.90 7.88 7.46 7.13
23-Sep-16 Fri 7.06 6.23 5.81 7.81 7.50 7.02
26-Sep-16 Mon na na
27-Sep-16 Tue na na
28-Sep-16 Wed 6.79 6.56 5.95 7.58 7.56 7.23
29-Sep-16 Thu 6.79 6.56 5.95 7.58 7.56 7.23
30-Sep-16 Fri 7.35 6.45 6.00 8.28 7.74 7.38
Date Day 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month
1-Sep-16 Thu 7.27 6.94 6.49 8.19 7.61 7.29
2-Sep-16 Fri 8.14 7.20 6.60 8.29 7.81 7.38
5-Sep-16 Mon na na
6-Sep-16 Tue 7.90 6.90 6.49 8.62 7.60 7.24
7-Sep-16 Wed 7.62 6.76 6.45 8.49 7.62 7.23
8-Sep-16 Thu 7.47 7.00 6.59 8.38 7.78 7.40
9-Sep-16 Fri 7.26 6.93 6.44 8.34 7.72 7.27
12-Sep-16 Mon 7.69 6.88 6.40 8.74 7.71 7.24
13-Sep-16 Tue na na
14-Sep-16 Wed 7.60 6.95 6.47 8.51 7.83 7.28
15-Sep-16 Thu 7.35 6.81 6.52 8.26 7.75 7.33
16-Sep-16 Fri 7.45 6.93 6.53 8.43 7.73 7.35
19-Sep-16 Mon 7.53 7.12 6.58 8.53 7.76 7.42
20-Sep-16 Tue 7.86 7.04 6.49 8.92 7.66 7.30
21-Sep-16 Wed 7.26 6.71 6.39 8.36 7.47 7.20
22-Sep-16 Thu 7.40 6.87 6.42 8.57 7.90 7.24
23-Sep-16 Fri 7.24 6.69 6.31 8.19 7.68 7.09
26-Sep-16 Mon na na
27-Sep-16 Tue na na
28-Sep-16 Wed 6.94 6.92 6.49 7.91 7.79 7.26
29-Sep-16 Thu 6.94 6.92 6.49 7.91 7.79 7.26
30-Sep-16 Fri 7.55 6.99 6.58 8.33 7.82 7.38
Pound Yen
Dollar
Annualised Forward Premia
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
11
RBI
LAF
Net Injection(+)/
Absorption(-) of Liquidity
(Rs. billion)*
Repo Rates
(Repo/Reverse
Repo)
Over-
night
Rates
(%)
Call
Money**
CBLO** Mibor USD Libor
01-Sep-16 -547.8 6.50/6.00% 6.37 6.50 0.413
02-Sep-16 -485.1 6.38 6.45 6.50 0.414
03-Sep-16 6.39 6.44 6.50 0.417
05-Sep-16 -33.3 6.41 6.43 6.50 0.417
06-Sep-16 -560.4 6.15 6.50 0.419
07-Sep-16 -389.7 6.17
08-Sep-16 -256.0 6.45 6.47 6.57 0.419
09-Sep-16 -348.2 6.48 6.50 6.60 0.419
12-Sep-16 -63.0 6.46 6.52 6.60 0.419
14-Sep-16 -159.6 6.45 6.54 6.65 0.420
15-Sep-16 -201.5 6.43 6.50 6.59 0.420
16-Sep-16 174.9 6.42 6.49 0.419
17-Sep-16 6.50 0.417
19-Sep-16 150.4 6.36 6.47 6.50 0.417
20-Sep-16 109.1 6.33 6.67 6.50 0.417
21-Sep-16 -191.3 6.36 6.50
22-Sep-16 -221.8 6.39 6.46 6.51 0.416
23-Sep-16 -275.2 6.41 6.45 6.51 0.417
26-Sep-16 -162.3 6.45 6.45 6.50 0.418
27-Sep-16 -106.3 6.42 6.43 6.51 0.420
28-Sep-16 -101.8 6.38 6.42 6.50 0.420
29-Sep-16 -416.3 6.40 6.44 6.50 0.418
30-Sep-16 -982.7 6.50/6.00% 6.39 6.46 6.50 0.418
*Includes liquidity provided under MSF at 7.0%; **Weighted average rates.
Money Market Rates & Liquidity
Interest Rates
0.416
0.418
0.420
0.422
0.424
0.426
6.00
6.10
6.20
6.30
6.40
6.50
6.60
1-S
ep-1
6
3-S
ep-1
6
5-S
ep-1
6
7-S
ep-1
6
9-S
ep-1
6
11
-Sep
-16
13
-Sep
-16
15
-Sep
-16
17
-Sep
-16
19
-Sep
-16
21
-Sep
-16
23
-Sep
-16
25
-Sep
-16
27
-Sep
-16
29
-Sep
-16
Call Money Mibor USD Libor
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
12
Date 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year >10
Year &
<=15
Year
>15
Year &
<= 20
Year
>20
Year
1-Sep-16 6.54 6.64 6.64 6.89 6.95 7.05 7.11 7.19 7.19 7.22 7.21
2-Sep-16 6.53 6.64 6.89 6.95 7.04 7.11 7.08 7.20 7.23 7.26
5-Sep-16
6-Sep-16 6.55 6.66 6.89 6.93 7.03 7.09 7.06 7.19 7.24 7.21
7-Sep-16 6.55 6.65 6.99 7.06 7.15 7.21 7.18
8-Sep-16 6.54 6.62 6.62 6.83 6.86 6.89 6.94 7.04 7.16 7.19 7.18
9-Sep-16 6.52 6.65 6.61 6.82 6.83 6.88 7.04 7.04 7.17 7.19 7.19
12-Sep-16 6.50 6.61 6.88 6.85 6.87 7.06 7.07 7.20 7.22 7.25
13-Sep-16 6.94
14-Sep-16 6.52 6.63 6.85 6.93 7.08 7.03 7.19 7.22 7.22
15-Sep-16 6.49 6.62 6.82 6.85 6.93 7.05 7.09 7.14 7.23 7.20
16-Sep-16 6.51 6.93 7.00 7.04 7.08 7.15 7.23 7.22
19-Sep-16 6.52 6.79 6.84 6.93 7.02 7.08 7.15 7.22 7.20
20-Sep-16 6.54 6.60 6.79 6.84 6.93 7.04 7.09 7.17 7.25 7.24
21-Sep-16 6.53 6.63 6.78 6.93 7.03 7.07 7.19 7.24 7.24
22-Sep-16 6.52 6.58 6.73 6.79 6.88 6.88 7.02 7.11 7.19 7.16
23-Sep-16 6.52 6.57 6.77 6.85 6.93 7.00 7.13 7.17 7.15
26-Sep-16 6.50 6.57 6.73 6.74 6.81 6.90 6.85 6.98 7.06 7.12 7.14
27-Sep-16 6.51 6.56 6.67 6.70 6.78 6.87 6.82 6.95 7.06 7.10 7.12
28-Sep-16 6.51 6.54 6.58 6.71 6.80 6.88 6.81 6.96 7.05 7.10 7.14
29-Sep-16 6.45 6.55 6.71 6.79 6.95 6.98 7.09 7.13 7.17
30-Sep-16 6.42 6.73 6.84 6.95 6.95 7.10 7.14 7.19
September-2016 6.51 6.60 6.62 6.78 6.81 6.89 6.97 6.99 7.04 7.14 7.19 7.19
Constant Maturity Yields for Government Bonds—September 2016
Debt Market Yields
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
13
Debt Market Yields
6.7
96
.73
6.7
26
.76
6.7
86
.76 6.8
56
.78
6.7
96
.78
6.8
16
.83
6.8
96
.89
6.8
56
.90
6.9
26
.97
7.0
27
.04
7.0
27
.01
6.7
77
.02
6.7
17
.06
7.0
17
.03 7.1
17
.18
7.0
87
.12
7.0
3 7.1
46
.84
7.1
47
.15
7.1
77
.17
6.8
17
.21
7.0
97
.11
7.0
37
.23
7.2
37
.22
7.2
27
.20
7.2
17
.17
7.1
77
.16 7.2
47
.00
7.2
27
.24
7.2
47
.25
7.2
37
.21
7.1
9
6.40
6.60
6.80
7.00
7.20
7.40
7.60
7.80
Janu
ary
20
17A
pri
l 20
17Ju
ly 2
017
July
20
17Ja
nuar
y 2
018
Ap
ril 2
018
Ap
ril 2
018
Sep
tem
ber
20
18F
ebru
ary
20
19Ju
ne
2019
July
20
19Ja
nuar
y 2
020
Janu
ary
20
20M
ay 2
020
Jun
e 20
20D
ecem
ber
20
20A
pri
l 20
21N
ove
mb
er 2
021
May
20
22Ju
ne
2022
Au
gust
202
2S
epte
mb
er 2
022
Dec
emb
er 2
022
May
20
23Ju
ne
2023
No
vem
ber
20
23D
ecem
ber
20
23Ju
ne
2024
July
20
24N
ove
mb
er 2
024
May
20
25S
epte
mb
er 2
025
Janu
ary
20
26Ju
ly 2
026
Sep
tem
ber
20
26N
ove
mb
er 2
026
Feb
ruar
y 2
027
Au
gust
202
7S
epte
mb
er 2
027
Mar
ch 2
028
Jun
e 20
28M
arch
20
29M
arch
20
30M
ay 2
030
Sep
tem
ber
20
30D
ecem
ber
20
30F
ebru
ary
20
32A
ugu
st 2
032
Au
gust
203
2N
ove
mb
er 2
033
Au
gust
203
4D
ecem
ber
20
34S
epte
mb
er 2
035
Jun
e 20
36Ja
nuar
y 2
039
July
20
40D
ecem
ber
20
41D
ecem
ber
20
42D
ecem
ber
20
43D
ecem
ber
20
44Ju
ne
2045
Oct
ober
20
55
Wei
ghte
d A
ver
age
YT
Ms
Maturity Year
Yields of Gsecs Traded in September 2016
7.2
97.0
07.7
67.7
67
.11
7.9
07
.77
7.7
77
.31
7.8
77.
30
7.2
9 8.1
37.
85
7.4
27
.45
7.3
87
.84
7.3
67
.48
7.35 7.8
97.
887
.89
7.8
48.
10
8.63
8.1
2 9.7
47.
84
8.0
27
.54
6.37 6.7
47.
55 8.7
99.
12
7.7
97
.54 8.4
07
.94
7.8
87.
94
7.5
0 8.6
58.
60
7.9
27
.93
7.9
57
.86
7.9
28
.33
8.6
27.
966.
36
6.6
2 7.4
77.
47
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
MA
RC
H 2
01
7
OC
TO
BE
R 2
01
8
MA
RC
H 2
01
9
AP
RIL
20
19
MA
Y 2
01
9
JUL
Y 2
01
9
JUN
E 2
02
0
JUL
Y 2
02
0
AU
GU
ST
20
20
SE
PT
EM
BE
R 2
02
0
DE
CE
MB
ER
20
20
MA
Y 2
02
1
JUL
Y 2
02
1
JUN
E 2
02
2
DE
CE
MB
ER
20
24
SE
PT
EM
BE
R 2
02
5
OC
TO
BE
R 2
02
5
DE
CE
MB
ER
20
25
MA
RC
H 2
02
6
AP
RIL
20
26
MA
Y 2
02
6
MA
Y 2
02
6
JUN
E 2
02
6
JUN
E 2
02
6
JUN
E 2
02
6
JUN
E 2
02
6
JUL
Y 2
02
6
FE
BR
UA
RY
20
27
AP
RIL
20
31
Wei
ght
ed A
ver
age
YT
Ms
Maturity Year
Yields of Corporate Bonds (AAA) Traded in September 2016
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
14
Month/
Year
No of
Companies
Listed*
No. of
Companies
Traded*
Turnover
(Rs.cr)
Average
Daily
Turnover
(Rs.cr)
Market
Capitalisation
(Rs.cr)*
Month
High
Month Low Month-
Closing
P/E P/B Dividend
Yield
Jun-16 5962 2804 60740.0 2760.9 10285548.7 27105.4 25911.3 26999.7 19.52 2.82 1.46
Jul-16 5985 2869 68032.5 3401.6 10863580.8 28240.2 27034.1 28051.9 20.25 2.94 1.41
Aug-16 5816 74083.9 3367.5 11099422.9 28532.3 27628.0 28452.2 20.59 2.95 1.39
Month/
Year
No of
Companies
Listed*
No. of
Securities
Traded*
Turnover
(Rs.cr)
Average
Daily
Turnover
(Rs.cr)
Market
Capitalisation
(Rs.cr)*
Month
High
Month Low Month-
Closing
P/E P/B Dividend
Yield
Jun-16 1822 1848 383484.0 17431.0 10100336.5 8308.2 7927.1 8287.8 22.52 3.38 1.28
Jul-16 1839 1885 407332.0 20367.0 10675211.0 8674.7 8287.6 8638.5 23.33 3.43 1.24
Aug-16 1831 1895 470626.0 21392.0 10910696.0 8819.2 8518.2 8786.2 23.65 3.34 1.25
*End of the Month.
No. of
contracts
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of
contracts
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of contracts Notional
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of
contracts
Notional
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of
contracts
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
Jun-16 448 26.0 448 26.0 1.2
Jul-16 4220 294.8 340 23.2 4560 318.0 15.9
Aug-16 16884 1185.6 547 39.1 17431 1224.7 55.7
No. of
contracts
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of
contracts
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of contracts Notional
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of
contracts
Notional
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of
contracts
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
Jun-16 6831756 400891.8 14803058 780911.6 86903821 5129854.7 7661598 405182.4 116200233 6716840.6 305310.9
Jul-16 4701956 317460.0 13905533 927572.2 72311766 4913926.6 7919557 538769.0 98838812 6697727.7 334886.4
Aug-16 5681464 389296.7 15504379 1062475.6 84911344 5912291.8 7985737 559718.9 114082924 7923783.0 360172.0
Total Average
Daily
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
CNX Nifty (50 Scrips)(Nov.3, 1993=100)NSE Capital Market Segment
BSE Derivatives (F&O) Trades
NSE Derivatives (F&O) Segment
Month/
Year
Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options
Derivatives Turnover
Month/
Year
Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options Total Average
Daily
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
STOCK MARKETSEquity Market Turnover
S&P BSE Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100)BSE Equity Market
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
15
Open High Low Close Price/Earnings Price/Bookvalue Dividend Yield
01-Sep-16 28459.1 28548.9 28386.6 28423.5 20.82 2.98 1.37
02-Sep-16 28498.7 28581.6 28427.6 28532.1 20.94 3.00 1.37
06-Sep-16 28631.3 29013.4 28631.3 28978.0 21.37 3.06 1.34
07-Sep-16 29035.7 29067.8 28911.3 28926.4 21.38 3.06 1.34
08-Sep-16 28929.5 29077.3 28854.6 29045.3 21.45 3.07 1.34
09-Sep-16 29062.9 29062.9 28755.1 28797.3 21.20 3.04 1.35
12-Sep-16 28481.1 28481.1 28251.3 28353.5 20.78 2.98 1.38
14-Sep-16 28345.5 28416.4 28259.4 28372.2 20.82 2.98 1.38
15-Sep-16 28398.3 28454.0 28311.1 28412.9 20.81 2.98 1.38
16-Sep-16 28520.3 28778.6 28494.6 28599.0 20.96 3.00 1.37
19-Sep-16 28626.6 28714.8 28552.6 28634.5 21.68 3.01 1.36
20-Sep-16 28690.7 28698.8 28480.5 28523.2 21.57 3.00 1.37
21-Sep-16 28554.4 28689.4 28462.3 28507.4 21.56 2.99 1.37
22-Sep-16 28766.9 28871.9 28693.1 28773.1 21.85 3.03 1.35
23-Sep-16 28810.3 28825.1 28627.4 28668.2 21.79 3.03 1.35
26-Sep-16 28630.9 28630.9 28272.0 28294.3 21.27 2.93 1.39
27-Sep-16 28373.0 28432.7 28179.3 28223.7 21.29 2.94 1.38
28-Sep-16 28198.9 28378.6 28198.3 28292.8 21.35 2.94 1.38
29-Sep-16 28423.1 28475.6 27719.9 27827.5 20.83 2.87 1.42
30-Sep-16 27807.8 27955.2 27716.8 27866.0 20.92 2.89 1.41
Open High Low Close Price/Earnings Price/Bookvalue Dividend Yield
01-Sep-16 8793.6 8813.3 8760.0 8774.7 24.06 3.35 1.22
02-Sep-16 8796.4 8824.1 8768.2 8809.7 24.15 3.36 1.22
06-Sep-16 8852.7 8950.9 8848.5 8943.0 24.52 3.42 1.20
07-Sep-16 8968.7 8968.7 8913.4 8918.0 24.45 3.40 1.20
08-Sep-16 8915.5 8960.4 8896.0 8952.5 24.54 3.41 1.20
09-Sep-16 8934.3 8939.2 8858.7 8866.7 24.31 3.38 1.21
12-Sep-16 8733.0 8747.0 8699.4 8715.6 23.89 3.32 1.23
14-Sep-16 8710.7 8739.9 8688.9 8726.6 23.92 3.33 1.23
15-Sep-16 8743.9 8752.0 8704.4 8742.6 23.97 3.33 1.23
16-Sep-16 8780.9 8847.7 8750.5 8779.9 24.07 3.34 1.26
19-Sep-16 8788.5 8824.3 8774.2 8808.4 24.15 3.34 1.25
20-Sep-16 8816.1 8816.5 8759.3 8775.9 24.06 3.33 1.26
21-Sep-16 8790.3 8826.9 8757.3 8777.2 24.11 3.33 1.26
22-Sep-16 8873.4 8893.4 8837.8 8867.5 24.34 3.37 1.25
23-Sep-16 8880.8 8885.2 8820.3 8831.6 24.24 3.35 1.25
26-Sep-16 8807.9 8809.6 8715.1 8723.1 23.94 3.31 1.27
27-Sep-16 8748.9 8768.5 8690.5 8706.4 23.90 3.30 1.27
28-Sep-16 8711.2 8767.1 8703.2 8745.2 23.97 3.32 1.27
29-Sep-16 8792.7 8800.7 8558.3 8591.3 23.51 3.26 1.29
30-Sep-16 8581.5 8637.2 8555.2 8611.2 23.40 3.27 1.29
Index MovementsBSE: S&P BSE Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100)
NSE: Nifty (50 Scrips) (Nov.3, 1993=100)
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
16
8500
8550
8600
8650
8700
8750
8800
8850
8900
8950
9000
27700
27900
28100
28300
28500
28700
28900
29100
01-S
ep-1
6
02-S
ep-1
6
06-S
ep-1
6
07-S
ep-1
6
08-S
ep-1
6
09-S
ep-1
6
12-S
ep-1
6
14-S
ep-1
6
15-S
ep-1
6
16-S
ep-1
6
19-S
ep-1
6
20-S
ep-1
6
21-S
ep-1
6
22-S
ep-1
6
23-S
ep-1
6
26-S
ep-1
6
27-S
ep-1
6
28-S
ep-1
6
29-S
ep-1
6
30-S
ep-1
6
Sensex High Low
Nifty High Low
FUTIDX-NIFTY Futures
(Expiry 29 September '16)
Open High Low Close No. of Contracts Turnover ('00,000) Change in OI
01-Sep-16 8833.5 8854.7 8791.0 8808.4 109257 723105 601275
02-Sep-16 8811.8 8847.1 8793.6 8840.2 95337 630697 -458400
06-Sep-16 8891.0 8969.1 8886.3 8961.2 107095 717112 728850
07-Sep-16 8975.6 8989.5 8942.1 8952.1 102380 688326 108825
08-Sep-16 8953.1 8994.5 8933.8 8982.6 93049 625549 343575
09-Sep-16 8962.0 8962.0 8890.5 8903.8 141330 945425 -912375
12-Sep-16 8805.3 8805.3 8727.0 8742.4 185188 1216077 -628575
14-Sep-16 8736.3 8779.8 8717.3 8768.6 114940 754174 -182775
15-Sep-16 8764.1 8784.0 8728.0 8773.5 100678 661107 -577050
16-Sep-16 8808.0 8878.8 8769.5 8808.2 180007 1192050 80925
19-Sep-16 8811.9 8848.4 8798.9 8832.1 83130 550445 288975
20-Sep-16 8806.7 8820.0 8786.1 8807.2 88745 585957 -123900
21-Sep-16 8814.0 8856.6 8784.9 8807.0 128146 848059 131325
22-Sep-16 8880.3 8918.0 8861.1 8884.5 144079 960282 -194775
23-Sep-16 8885.3 8889.4 8830.1 8843.7 95560 635364 -888600
26-Sep-16 8813.8 8821.6 8726.7 8735.2 211371 1390929 -6349275
27-Sep-16 8765.0 8776.4 8697.9 8716.6 187869 1231847 -4396050
28-Sep-16 8710.0 8783.9 8706.0 8758.5 145082 951787 -3324525
29-Sep-16 8801.3 8802.0 8562.1 8588.4 308550 2005108 -4351875
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
17
Capital Flows
Equity Gross
Purchases (Rs
Crores)
Gross Sales
(Rs Crores)
Net Investment
(Rs Crores)
01-Sep-16 1352.0 1241.8 110.1
02-Sep-16 1515.3 1332.9 182.4
06-Sep-16 1325.0 1418.7 -93.8
07-Sep-16 1496.0 1804.5 -308.4
08-Sep-16 1252.8 1572.4 -319.6
09-Sep-16 1008.8 1231.0 -222.2
12-Sep-16 1544.7 1729.8 -185.1
14-Sep-16 1539.7 1284.1 255.6
15-Sep-16 1069.1 924.4 144.7
16-Sep-16 1548.2 1720.3 -172.1
19-Sep-16 1066.7 1054.4 12.2
20-Sep-16 2088.5 1078.8 1009.7
21-Sep-16 1272.3 1039.7 232.6
22-Sep-16 1678.9 1351.7 327.2
23-Sep-16 1571.1 1374.9 196.2
26-Sep-16 1374.2 1183.3 190.9
27-Sep-16 1305.4 1144.6 160.8
28-Sep-16 1392.3 1093.2 299.0
29-Sep-16 3724.4 2830.5 894.0
30-Sep-16 2145.7 1018.5 1127.2
Total for September 31271.1 27429.5 3841.4
Debt Gross
Purchases (Rs
Crores)
Gross Sales
(Rs Crores)
Net Investment
(Rs Crores)
01-Sep-16 12327.3 4625.1 7702.2
02-Sep-16 7637.0 3570.2 4066.8
06-Sep-16 8432.8 3928.4 4504.5
07-Sep-16 6850.6 3376.8 3473.8
08-Sep-16 5695.8 3713.7 1982.1
09-Sep-16 7172.8 3240.7 3932.1
12-Sep-16 5967.2 2621.0 3346.2
14-Sep-16 7991.1 4486.1 3505.1
15-Sep-16 8455.4 4716.4 3739.0
16-Sep-16 11296.6 4396.8 6899.8
19-Sep-16 7180.7 5865.6 1315.1
20-Sep-16 11100.4 6900.3 4200.1
21-Sep-16 7758.0 5000.8 2757.3
22-Sep-16 10824.5 7360.5 3464.0
23-Sep-16 6178.8 4578.8 1600.0
26-Sep-16 8395.6 6723.5 1672.1
27-Sep-16 8115.7 6516.8 1598.9
28-Sep-16 8452.2 8822.8 -370.6
29-Sep-16 10567.4 14282.3 -3714.9
30-Sep-16 7909.7 10271.3 -2361.5
Total for September 168309.6 114997.9 53312.1
Mutual Funds Investment Trends
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
18
Mutual Funds' Asset
Position (Rs. Crore)
April 2016 to September 2016Private Sector
Mutual Funds
Public Sector
Mutual Funds (of which) UTI Total
13,00,948.7 2,79,127.5 1,23,612.3 15,80,076.2
82.33% 17.67% 7.82% 100.00%Cumulative Position of Net Assets as on
September 30, 2016
84,61,683.9
Net Inflow/ Outflow (-ve) of funds 1,85,044.2 49,520.0 20,226.4 2,34,564.1
Mobilisation of Funds 68,33,074.4 16,28,609.5 7,42,575.1
ECB (& FCCB) Jul-16 Aug-16
Automatic Route 1,019,625,452 2,586,685,779
Approval Route 1837,01,042 5865,68,578
Total ECB 1,203,326,494 3,173,254,357
Value in US$.
01-Sep-16 798.75 1540 -741.25 -110.67
02-Sep-16 2211.22 1422.97 788.25 117.73
06-Sep-16 1255.88 320.02 935.86 140.01
07-Sep-16 1454.68 964.7 489.98 73.63
08-Sep-16 2189.86 675.87 1513.99 228.14
09-Sep-16 1540.03 909.28 630.75 94.93
12-Sep-16 2120.15 1690.46 429.69 64.57
14-Sep-16 299.72 131.32 168.4 25.17
15-Sep-16 1895.32 1759.26 136.06 20.32
16-Sep-16 717.46 1401.27 -683.81 -102.03
19-Sep-16 718.48 207.21 511.27 76.44
20-Sep-16 1243.4 720.24 523.16 78.23
21-Sep-16 1280.64 1214.76 65.88 9.83
22-Sep-16 609.18 1388.89 -779.71 -116.26
23-Sep-16 1535.2 1618.19 -82.99 -12.41
26-Sep-16 1935.79 1386.4 549.39 82.42
27-Sep-16 1764.25 636.13 1128.12 169.11
28-Sep-16 3119.32 1394.74 1724.58 259.48
29-Sep-16 1450.53 373.64 1076.89 162.06
30-Sep-16 2194.65 789.8 1404.85 211.09
Total for September 30334.51 20545.15 9789.36 1471.79
Total for 2016 204299.71 201858.06 2441.65 423.98
Gross Sales
(Rs Crores)Net Investment
(Rs Crores)
Net
Investment
US$ million
FPI Investments in Primary & Secondary Markets
Debt Gross
Purchases
(Rs Crores)
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
19
01-Sep-16 15504.4 14581.3 923.0 137.8
02-Sep-16 3355.8 3737.7 -381.9 -57.1
06-Sep-16 3644.0 3398.3 245.7 36.8
07-Sep-16 5549.1 4155.7 1393.4 209.4
08-Sep-16 5627.5 4763.3 864.2 130.2
09-Sep-16 4689.7 4556.2 133.5 20.1
12-Sep-16 4040.2 4377.4 -337.2 -50.7
14-Sep-16 3574.1 4165.2 -591.2 -88.4
15-Sep-16 4624.6 5097.8 -473.2 -70.7
16-Sep-16 3410.8 3064.8 346.0 51.6
19-Sep-16 11087.8 10546.9 540.9 80.9
20-Sep-16 4784.3 3820.0 964.3 144.2
21-Sep-16 4551.1 3445.4 1105.7 165.0
22-Sep-16 4538.0 4030.0 508.1 75.8
23-Sep-16 4812.3 4410.3 402.0 60.1
26-Sep-16 5755.0 6002.7 -247.7 -37.2
27-Sep-16 4413.6 4557.2 -143.6 -21.5
28-Sep-16 4607.6 3802.0 805.6 121.2
29-Sep-16 5652.8 4678.3 974.5 146.7
30-Sep-16 11492.7 8081.6 3411.0 512.5
Total for September 115715.3 105272.1 10443.3 1566.8
Total for 2016 841303.2 790010.2 51293.0 7703.9
Equity Gross
Purchases (Rs
Crores)
Gross Sales
(Rs Crores)Net Investment
(Rs Crores)
Net
Investment
US$ Million
-600-400-200
0200400600800
100012001400
1-Se
p-1
6
8-Se
p-1
6
15-S
ep-1
6
22-S
ep-1
6
29-S
ep-1
6
3411.03
Net
Flo
ws
(Rs.
Cr.
)
FPI Equity
MF Equity
Foreign Investment 2015-16* 2016-17* Jul-16 Aug-16
Foreign Investment Inflows 16,365.0 14,844.0 4,130.0 4,817.0
Net Direct Investments 13,955.0 12,585.0 3,621.0 4,876.0
Net Portfolio Inflows –1,761 5,680.0 2,640.0 937.0
*April-August; US$ million.
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
20
Date Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot
01-Sep-16 3460.0 3620.4 1767.0 1811.3 645.7 633.8 2964.0 2994.0 30772.0 30703.0
02-Sep-16 3437.0 3603.8 1766.0 1810.0 660.0 639.7 3032.0 2890.0 30920.0 30761.0
05-Sep-16 3528.0 1766.0 663.4 3032.0 2970.0 30985.0
06-Sep-16 3542.0 3622.5 1775.0 1811.0 653.7 649.9 3021.0 2970.0 31378.0 31030.0
07-Sep-16 3538.0 3626.7 1760.0 1811.5 651.7 647.0 3078.0 2983.0 31305.0 31278.0
08-Sep-16 3555.0 3627.2 1752.0 1810.1 659.2 645.6 3220.0 3019.0 31203.0 31240.0
09-Sep-16 3543.0 3651.3 1744.0 1815.6 657.5 651.0 3134.0 3164.0 31217.0 31191.0
12-Sep-16 3589.0 3632.9 1725.0 1818.7 651.6 645.6 3140.0 3053.0 31019.0 31212.0
13-Sep-16 3623.0 1725.0 645.0 3089.0 3097.0 31081.0
14-Sep-16 3631.0 3638.5 1737.0 1821.0 646.9 640.8 2991.0 3004.0 31038.0 31073.0
15-Sep-16 3577.0 1746.0 1823.7 645.3 640.0 3007.0 2918.0 30910.0 31115.0
16-Sep-16 3581.0 3635.0 1748.0 1817.5 651.6 646.2 2943.0 2943.0 30813.0 30920.0
19-Sep-16 3598.0 3621.5 1751.0 1818.4 663.0 653.2 2960.0 2878.0 30903.0 30967.0
20-Sep-16 3582.0 3614.0 1738.0 1818.4 665.8 659.8 2956.0 2896.0 30924.0 30982.0
21-Sep-16 3513.0 3607.5 1740.0 1817.5 665.2 660.0 3046.0 2952.0 31205.0 31106.0
22-Sep-16 3482.0 3595.0 1747.0 1820.0 670.8 661.5 3101.0 3041.0 31332.0 31263.0
23-Sep-16 3494.0 3603.4 1751.0 1824.0 660.4 662.6 2978.0 3096.0 31281.0 31316.0
26-Sep-16 3485.0 3594.5 1751.0 1820.2 661.3 658.5 3083.0 2965.0 31328.0 31305.0
27-Sep-16 3474.0 3584.2 1745.0 1819.8 656.2 655.0 2975.0 3064.0 30978.0 31227.0
28-Sep-16 3493.0 3590.0 1747.0 1822.2 653.4 649.4 3061.0 2969.0 30955.0 31038.0
29-Sep-16 3485.0 3600.0 1757.0 1825.0 655.9 650.0 3204.0 3126.0 31165.0 31096.0
30-Sep-16 3482.0 3610.0 1752.0 1823.1 655.7 648.1 3212.0 3183.0 30742.0 31175.0
*National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd. **Multi Commodity Exchange of India. Futures: October contract.
Commodity Futures & Spot Prices
Sugar* Wheat* Refined Soya Oil* Energy: Crude Oil** Bullion: Gold**
Commodity Futures & Spot Markets
(100 Kgs) (100 Kgs) (10 Kgs) (1 Bbl.) (10 Grams)
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
21
MCXCOMDEX MCXAGRI MCXMETAL MCXENERGY NCDEX-Futures NCDEX-Spot
01-Sep-16 3067.53 2489.98 4531.44 2199.14 3174.88 3177.82
02-Sep-16 3088.98 2493.40 4545.56 2239.08 3189.38 3182.88
05-Sep-16 3088.78 2487.99 4551.73 2235.10 3191.40 3188.87
06-Sep-16 3097.79 2505.86 4581.97 2219.36 3193.51 3199.13
07-Sep-16 3110.96 2511.16 4581.08 2251.83 3162.45 3167.98
08-Sep-16 3153.93 2536.62 4581.60 2350.30 3164.60 3166.48
09-Sep-16 3133.54 2540.20 4575.71 2301.39 3157.68 3156.94
12-Sep-16 3125.48 2557.53 4532.94 2314.55 3150.42 3149.85
13-Sep-16 3113.74 2549.20 4533.67 2287.47 3150.35 3150.11
14-Sep-16 3099.60 2552.01 4559.08 2223.88 3184.49 3183.47
15-Sep-16 3094.33 2544.45 4536.18 2236.85 3193.34 3191.89
16-Sep-16 3080.74 2552.16 4531.89 2201.97 3192.14 3192.57
19-Sep-16 3103.53 2580.08 4571.92 2207.21 3214.51 3215.61
20-Sep-16 3115.98 2577.64 4593.02 2219.70 3194.40 3199.27
21-Sep-16 3147.26 2588.25 4611.52 2277.23 3178.72 3182.95
22-Sep-16 3176.64 2569.37 4659.17 2315.42 3179.02 3175.17
23-Sep-16 3132.20 2501.89 4650.93 2241.85 3167.13 3165.36
26-Sep-16 3160.13 2485.45 4649.76 2323.85 3161.19 3151.93
27-Sep-16 3118.51 2450.06 4617.70 2265.39 3147.10 3147.16
28-Sep-16 3141.86 2402.57 4640.76 2326.80 3139.73 3139.87
29-Sep-16 3185.54 2392.65 4666.39 2419.69 3138.44 3139.56
30-Sep-16 3187.24 2399.59 4666.77 2420.27 3153.19 3150.74
Multi Commodity Exchange of India and National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd: Index Close
Commodity Futures Indices
2000.0
2200.0
2400.0
2600.0
2800.0
3000.0
3200.0
3400.0
3600.0
3800.0
4000.0
4200.0
4400.0
4600.0
1-S
ep
3-S
ep
5-S
ep
7-S
ep
9-S
ep
11-S
ep
13-S
ep
15-S
ep
17-S
ep
19-S
ep
21-S
ep
23-S
ep
25-S
ep
27-S
ep
29-S
ep
MCXCOMDEX MCXMETAL MCXENERGY
MCXAGRI NCDEX-Futures NCDEX-Spot
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
22
Stock
Market
Country Risk
Indicator/
Country
(per US$)
Q2 Aug
USA 1.3 Aug -1.1 1.1 -2.1 0.88 1.75 Aug -744.3 4.1 AA+/Stable
Canada 0.9 Jul -0.7 1.1 -1.3 0.85 1.20 1.33 Aug -22.0 84.2 17.6 AAA/Stable
UK 2.1 Jul 2.1 0.6 0.8 0.37 1.05 0.82 Aug -189.7 146.7 -7.0 AA/-ve
Euro area 1.6 Jul -0.5 0.2 -2.0 -0.31 0.06 0.91 Jul 289.1 -5.0 (EU)AA/Stable
Germany 1.7 Jul -1.2 0.4 -1.6 -0.31 0.06 0.91 Aug 282.8 -0.7 AAA/Stable
France 1.3 Jul -0.1 0.2 -2.0 -0.31 0.32 0.91 Aug -54.4 -2.7 AA/-ve
Italy 0.7 Jul -0.3 -0.1 -1.1 -0.31 1.41 0.91 Jul 56.0 -22.0 BBB-/Stable
Spain 3.2 Jul -5.2 -0.6 -3.1 -0.31 1.10 0.91 Jul -21.9 -8.0 BBB+/Stable
Russia -0.6 Aug 0.7 6.9 3.1 11.2 8.35 63.0 Aug 95.5 397.7 31.6 BB+/Stable
Japan 0.8 Aug 4.6 -0.5 -3.6 -0.02 -0.05 104.00 Aug 32.8 1260.1 2.3 A+/ Stable
China 6.7 Aug 6.3 1.3 -0.8 2.80 2.53 6.71 Sep 571.4 3185.9 -16.4 AA-/-ve
Hong Kong 1.7 Q2 -0.6 4.3 0.60 1.10 7.76 Aug -52.9 362.5 6.7 AAA/-ve
Malaysia 4.0 Jul 4.1 1.5 3.37 3.60 4.20 Aug 22.2 97.7 0.8 A-/Stable
Singapore 2.1 Aug 0.1 -0.3 .. 1.91 1.38 Aug 46.7 253.4 0.0 AAA/Stable
South Korea 3.2 Aug 2.3 0.4 -1.7 1.36 1.59 1124.00 Sep 91.9 377.8 8.2 AA/Stable
Taiwan 0.7 Aug 7.7 0.6 0.66 0.79 31.6 Sep 15.6 436.7 15.3 AA-/Stable
Thailand 3.5 Aug 3.1 0.3 1.13 2.30 35.7 Aug 22.1 180.5 10.0 BBB+/Stable
Brazil -3.8 Aug -5.2 9.0 13.6 11.2 3.22 Sep 45.6 370.4 74.3 BB/-ve
Chile 1.5 Aug 2.8 3.4 0.51 4.18 667.00 Sep 3.7 39.4 20.6 AA-/ Stable
Mexico 2.5 Jul -1.0 2.7 5.11 6.09 18.90 Aug -16.1 175.8 1.6 BBB+/-ve
South Africa 0.6 Jul 2.5 5.9 7.2 7.36 8.93 14.30 Aug -0.8 47.2 10.4 BBB-/-ve
India 7.1 Jul -2.4 5.0 3.7 6.37 6.82 66.6 Aug -93.9 372.0 6.9 BBB-/Stable
Note: Trade balance for last 12 months. FX Reserves at end of period.
*Per cent change of the major index in US$ terms between 31st December 2015 and October 12, 2016. **Foreign Currency Ratings by S&P.
For more Countrywise Indicators and Updates visit: http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/publications.html
(%) (US$ bn.)
FX
Reserves
Economic & Financial Market Indicators for Major Global Economies
Growth Inflation Interest Rates External Sector
Global Economic Indicators
August 12-Oct
GDP Short-
term
Rate
Long-
term
Rate
Exchange
Rate
Trade BalanceIIP CPI PPI Share
Price
Growth*
Sovereign
Rating**
(% change on year ago)
3.2 3.1
3.4
3.6
2.82.9
3.3 3.3
2.62.3
3.8
4.2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
2015 2016 2017 2018
World Output, Inflation & Trade (% change, IMF, WEO Database & Updates)
GDP Inflation Trade
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
23
S&P BSE
Sensex
(India)
DJI (US) S&P
500(US)
FTSE
100(UK)
NIKKEI
225 (Japan)
HSI
(HongKong)
STI
(Singapore)
IPC
(Mexico)
BOVESPA
(Brazil)
01-Sep-16 28,423.48 18,419.30 2,170.86 6,745.97 16,926.84 23,162.34 2,816.47 47,563.34 58,236.00
02-Sep-16 28,532.11 18,491.96 2,179.98 6,894.60 16,925.68 23,266.70 2,803.92 47,787.99 59,616.00
05-Sep-16 6,879.42 17,037.63 23,649.55 2,851.74 47,842.23 59,566.00
06-Sep-16 28,978.02 18,538.12 2,186.48 6,826.05 17,081.98 23,787.68 2,896.55 47,626.98 60,129.00
07-Sep-16 28,926.36 18,526.14 2,186.16 6,846.58 17,012.44 23,741.81 2,893.65 47,398.70
08-Sep-16 29,045.28 18,479.91 2,181.30 6,858.70 16,958.77 23,919.34 2,894.48 47,416.97 60,232.00
09-Sep-16 28,797.25 18,085.45 2,127.81 6,776.95 16,965.76 24,099.70 2,873.33 46,459.17 58,000.00
12-Sep-16 28,353.54 18,325.07 2,159.04 6,700.90 16,672.92 23,290.60 46,720.96 58,586.00
13-Sep-16 18,066.75 2,127.02 6,665.63 16,729.04 23,215.76 2,818.38 46,154.20 56,821.00
14-Sep-16 28,372.23 18,034.77 2,125.77 6,673.31 16,614.24 23,190.64 2,809.35 45,767.57 57,059.00
15-Sep-16 28,412.89 18,212.48 2,147.26 6,730.30 16,405.01 23,335.59 2,805.52 45,922.91 57,909.00
16-Sep-16 28,599.03 18,123.80 2,139.16 6,710.28 16,519.29 2,827.45 57,080.00
19-Sep-16 28,634.50 18,120.17 2,139.12 6,813.55 23,550.45 2,852.14 45,871.04 57,350.00
20-Sep-16 28,523.20 18,129.96 2,139.76 6,830.79 16,492.15 23,530.86 2,854.69 46,341.33 57,736.00
21-Sep-16 28,507.42 18,293.70 2,163.12 6,834.77 16,807.62 23,669.90 2,850.74 46,929.19 58,394.00
22-Sep-16 28,773.13 18,392.46 2,177.18 6,911.40 23,759.80 2,846.06 47,975.05 58,994.00
23-Sep-16 28,668.22 18,261.45 2,164.69 6,909.43 16,754.02 23,686.48 2,856.95 47,778.48 58,697.00
26-Sep-16 28,294.28 18,094.83 2,146.10 6,818.04 16,544.56 23,317.92 2,849.94 47,252.54 58,054.00
27-Sep-16 28,223.70 18,228.30 2,159.93 6,807.67 16,683.93 23,571.90 2,860.23 47,731.84 58,382.00
28-Sep-16 28,292.81 18,339.24 2,171.37 6,849.38 16,465.40 23,619.65 2,858.01 48,046.56 59,356.00
29-Sep-16 27,827.53 18,143.45 2,151.13 6,919.42 16,693.71 23,739.47 2,885.71 47,672.07 58,351.00
30-Sep-16 27,865.96 18,308.15 2,168.27 6,899.33 16,449.84 23,297.15 2,869.47 47,245.80 58,367.00
Closing Values
International Stock Index Movements vs S&P BSE Sensex (September-2016, with 1st Sep=100)
Global Stock Indices
Selected Indian & International Stock Indices
DJI (US) S&P 500 (US)FTSE 100(UK) NIKKEI 225 (Japan)
HSI (HongKong) STI (Singapore) IPC (Mexico) BOVESPA (Brazil)
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
24
Units Descriptor Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16
Index Number Fuel and Non-Fuel 114.79 104.24 103.48 102.62 102.54 102.16
Index Number Non-Fuel 135.35 130.17 127.77 135.39 132.68 130.50
Index Number Food 146.23 140.83 134.58 151.26 144.58 141.63
Index Number Agricultural Raw Materials 118.07 111.59 112.28 114.04 113.56 112.72
Index Number Industrial Inputs 121.08 116.01 117.10 117.50 118.28 116.42
Index Number Metals 123.25 119.20 120.58 120.01 121.68 119.10
Index Number Energy 102.76 89.06 89.26 83.45 84.91 85.58
Index Number Crude Oil 102.54 86.14 87.05 83.05 84.25 84.64
USD per Barrel Crude Oil, Brent 55.87 46.99 47.23 45.07 46.14 46.19
USD per Barrel Crude Oil Dubai Fateh 56.27 47.30 46.14 42.71 43.64 43.82
USD per Barrel Crude Oil WTI 51.16 42.86 45.48 44.89 44.75 45.17
USD per Million Metric British
Thermal UnitNatural Gas, H H, Louisiana 2.83 2.76 2.65 2.79 2.79 2.97
USD per Metric Ton Coal, Australian Thermal 63.35 62.76 58.66 66.74 72.19 78.11
USD per Metric Ton Aluminum 1639.50 1548.13 1589.60 1629.05 1639.28 1592.36
USD per Metric Ton Copper 5456.75 5127.30 5217.25 4864.90 4751.67 4722.20
USD per Metric Ton Zinc 2000.68 1807.64 1720.23 2183.25 2279.14 2292.31
US Cents per Metric Ton Iron Ore 51.50 55.38 56.43 56.57 60.47 56.67
US cents per Pound Rubber 74.37 64.43 59.51 80.50 74.98 72.78
US cents per Pound Cotton 72.35 71.82 68.74 81.06 80.26 77.86
USD per Metric Ton Palm oil 575.68 484.68 483.49 584.19 664.38 692.41
USD per Metric Ton Sunflower Oil 1069.26 980.25 981.68 975.11 981.94 989.05
USD per Metric Ton Soybean Oil 695.79 628.75 590.25 669.86 711.74 722.61
USD per Metric Ton Soybeans 372.35 347.02 323.55 390.40 370.32 355.90
US cents per Pound Sugar, European 25.87 25.95 25.54 21.87 21.81 21.85
US cents per Pound Sugar, Free Market 11.88 10.67 12.14 19.69 20.01 21.94
US cents per Pound Sugar, U.S. 24.67 24.50 24.43 28.15 28.54 27.95
US cents per Kg. Tea 403.03 387.33 371.21 280.12 275.92 297.97
US cents per Pound Coffee, Arabicas 153.29 158.78 147.65 172.35 170.34 178.07
USD per Metric Ton Rice, Bangkok 387.74 375.57 358.77 456.24 414.22 384.00
USD per Metric Ton Wheat, US 199.20 173.47 163.83 133.62 127.90 123.20
*Base 2005=100
Primary Commodity Indices*/ Prices
Global Commodity Prices
0 50 100 150 200
2015
2016
2017
2018
Observed & Projected Price Movements, IMF WEO Database Fuel and Non-Fuel Price Indices
Food Price Index includes Cereal, Vegetable
Oils, Meat, Seafood, Sugar, Bananas, and Oranges Industrial Inputs Price Index includes
Agricultural Raw Materials and Metals
Agricultural Raw Materials Index includes
Timber, Cotton, Wool, Rubber, and Hides PriceCrude Oil Index(Petroleum), Brent, West
Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai Fateh
Metals Price Index, Copper, Aluminum, Iron
Ore, Tin, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, and Uranium Price Indices
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
25
Following are the Highlights of RBI’s Fourth Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2016-17
Policy Measures * Repo rate reduced by 25 basis points from 6.5% to 6.25%;, Reverse Repo stands adjusted at 5.75%; Bank rate and MSF rate at 6.75% * Cash reserve ratio or CRR unchanged at 4% *Continue to provide liquidity as required but progressively lower the average ex ante liquidity deficit in the system from one per cent of NDTL to a position closer to neutrality
Assessment Global growth has been slowing more than anticipated through 2016 so far, with weak investment and trade damping aggregate demand. Meanwhile, risks in the form of Brexit, banking stress in Europe, rebalancing of debt-fuelled growth in China, rising protectionism and diminishing confidence in monetary policy have slanted the outlook to the downside. World trade volume has contracted sharper than expected in the first half of 2016, and the outlook has worsened with the recent falling off of imports by advanced economies (AEs) from emerging market economies (EMEs). Inflation remains subdued in AEs and has started to edge down in EMEs. In India, the outlook for agricultural activity has brightened considerably; the first advance estimates of kharif foodgrains production for 2016-17 by the Ministry of Agriculture have been placed at a record level, and higher than the target set for the year. The industrial sector, by contrast, suffered a manufacturing-driven contraction in early fiscal year Q2, after a sequential deceleration in gross value added in Q1. Nonetheless, business expectations polled in the Reserve Bank’s industrial outlook survey and by other agencies remain expansionary in Q2 and Q3. The strong public investment in roads, railways and inland waterways, the recent efforts to unclog cash flows in large projects under arbitration, and the boost to spending from the 7th Pay Commission’s award, should improve the industrial outlook. In the services sector, the acceleration in the pace of activity in Q1 appears to have been sustained. An increasing number of high frequency indicators are moving into positive territory, construction is boosted by policy initiatives, and public administration, defence and other services will be supported by the pay commission award. In the external sector, merchandise exports contracted in the first two months of Q2. Subdued domestic demand was, however, reflected in a faster contraction in imports. Moreover, the still soft crude prices pared off a fifth of the oil import bill and gold import volume slumped to a fifth of its volume a year ago. Consequently, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed by US$10 billion in April-August on a year-on-year basis. the decline in remittances and the flattening of software earnings warrants monitoring. While the pace of foreign direct investment slowed compared to a year ago, portfolio flows were stronger after the Brexit vote, galvanised by a search for returns in an expanding universe of negative yields. The level of foreign exchange reserves rose to US$ 372 billion by September 30, 2016 – an all-time high. Retail inflation measured by the headline CPI had been elevated by a sharp pick-up in the momentum of food inflation overwhelming favourable base effects during April-July. In August, however, the momentum of food inflation turned negative and surprised expectations; consequently, base effects in that month came into full play and pulled down headline inflation to an intra-year low. Fuel inflation has moderated steadily through the year so far. Inflation excluding food and fuel (including petrol and diesel embedded in transportation) has been sticky around 5 per cent. Households reacted to the recent hardening of food inflation adaptively and raised their inflation expectations in the September 2016 round of the Reserve Bank’s inflation expectations survey of households. Input costs in the manufacturing sector, including staff costs, have firmed up slightly as evident in various surveys, but the presence of considerable slack has restrained their transmission into corporate pricing power. Liquidity conditions have remained comfortable in Q3, with the Reserve Bank absorbing liquidity on a net basis through variable rate reverse repo auctions of varying tenors. Liquidity was injected through open market purchases of ₹200 billion in line with the system’s requirements. As a result, the weighted average call money rate (WACR) remained tightly aligned with the policy repo rate and, in fact, traded with a soft bias. Interest rates on commercial paper (CPs) and certificates of deposit (CD) also eased.
Policy Stance and Rationale * 6-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) makes India’s first collective interest rate decision
*All MPC members voted in favour of rate cut * Growth forecast retained at 7.6% for the current fiscal *A normal monsoon and the 7th Pay Commission award likely to quicken growth momentum and add to inflationary pressure * Inflation target kept unchanged at 5% by March 2017 with upside risk *Govt has announced measures to cool food inflation, which opened up space for rate cut *Banks should cut lending rates as small savings rate has been lowered
*Uncertainty around US elections, crude prices, global demand
E-UpDates October 2016 Surge Research Support
26
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