eve gruntfest geography and environmental studies university of colorado colorado springs, co 80933...

Eve Gruntfest

Geography and Environmental StudiesUniversity of Colorado

Colorado Springs, CO 80933ecg@brain.uccs.edu

719 262 4058

C O M E THydromet 00-1

The 1976 Big Thompson FloodThe 1976 Big Thompson Flood

What Have

We Learned?

140 dead

new focus for next generation of policy makers and scientists involved in flood mitigation

The Big Thompson Flood 1976 The Big Thompson Flood 1976

The Big Thompson FloodThe Big Thompson Flood

Who lived?

Who died?

19861986

Signs FLASH FLOODS

are recognized as different from slow rise floods

Fewer people Real time

detection

19991999

More federal agencies flood warning

Increased vulnerability

19991999

ALERT user groups combine detection/response

Technology National Weather

Service overpromises

Dams/infrastructure Real time data

RememberRememberRememberRemember

Warnings are not a stimulus response action

People must be able to assess their own risk before they will take action

Fallacies of Warning MythsFallacies of Warning Myths

People do not panic in response to warnings

People rarely get too much information

"Cry wolf" syndrome not applicable if previous misses are understood

Public wants information from multiple sources

People actively seek to confirm risk

Scientific ComponentDetectionData Assessment PredictionInforming

Warning Process Components

HearUnderstandBelievePersonalizeDecide to ActRespond

Public Response ComponentsPublic Response Components

Warning Message ComponentsWarning Message Components

Specific actionLocationProtective behaviorTime framesSource of warnings

Warning Messages should beWarning Messages should be

Specific ConsistentAccurateClear

as to location actions to take time before impact

Advantages and Disadvantages of Warning Systems

– 17 Systems Unanticipated Problems

Sweating the small thingsSweating the small things

Redundancy Unreliable mechanical parts Weather/wildlife

Lack of maintenance fundingLack of maintenance funding

Who pays after warranty runs out? Access for gages - textbook vs.

practical access

Local commitmentLocal commitment

Local vs. state vs. federal Charismatic individuals

Wide variation in levels of protection and expenseWide variation in levels of protection and expense

$500-$5,000,000 What is reasonable per capita expense?

Are warning systems cheap payoff of rain gods?

what type of training to operate?

Who runs show?

Inconsistent level of expectation and formalization

Common Elements of SuccessCommon Elements of Success

Policy entrepreneur – someone who bases career on success of warning system

Use disaster as opportunity High tech/with high touch Look outside of common frame for

ideas and support

Social science principals that complicate warning processSocial science principals that complicate warning process

What people say and what they do may not be the same thing

The link between awareness of a hazard and taking action is not known

people continue doing what they are doing and deny threats –

panic is not typical

people must understand, believe, personalize and then respond!

Paying Off the Raingods Paying Off the Raingods

Warning systems vs. detection systems

Appropriate per capita costs? Ways of evaluating success

Alternate uses of ALERT in Ventura County, CaliforniaAlternate uses of ALERT in Ventura County, California

Determine burn index

Calculate evapotranspiration rate

Help predict landslides

Satisfy EPA weather requirements for pesticide users

Hang glider wind predictions

Research PrioritiesResearch PrioritiesResearch Priorities

Calculate warning system benefits

Conduct coordinated post-audits

Address the false alarm issue in specific leadtimes

If 28 people die in Texas was the warning a success?

Package response systems parallel to detection system packaging

Calculate appropriate actions within specific leadtimes

Clarify where scientists disagree

How can we get people OUT of their cars?

Implement a system for archiving and sharing data

Develop warning system standards

Can we convince people they are better off wet than dead?Can we convince people they are better off wet than dead?

Who or what warning agency was most credible during the 1993 Midwestern U.S. floods?

How can we convince people they are better wet than dead?How can we convince people they are better wet than dead?

The next time it rains 14 inches

in four hours will we know in advance?