friends of caltrain electric rail car decisions - capacity context
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Caltrain Ridership, Capacity, and Electric Rail Car Design Decisions
Friends of CaltrainAdina LevinSeptember 2014
Caltrain “success disaster” - Long-term ridership growth
Dot.Com Bust
Baby Bullet Launch
Financial crash & recession
Second bike car
Trends - car-light culture
● Today’s workers prefer less driving...○ 40% of Caltrain riders don’t own a car or don’t drive○ Only 24% drive to station and park○ 17% use a bicycle for first/last mile
● ...fostered by transportation incentives and policies○ 42% of Stanford employees drive to work, down
from 72% a decade ago, following Santa Clara County trip cap and Stanford TDM program
○ 50% of Bay Meadows residents prefer to take the train in major City of San Mateo Transit-Oriented Development with transit incentives
Trends - transit corridor growthPlan Bay Area - Priority Development Areas focused on transit corridors Regional goal:
accommodate 80% of housing, 60% of job growth in < 5% of land w/transit access
Price premium for offices, homes near Caltrain
National trend: growth, demand in walkable transit-served areas
How much future ridership growth?
San Francisco expects Ridership to increase 3x by 2040
San Jose Expects Ridership to increase 5x by 2035
Caltrain expects ridership to increase less than 2x by 2040
How much future ridership growth?
Caltrain Electrification Forecast
Continued Growth Trend?
Why Level Boarding? Faster.
Credit: Clem TIllier
Peak period growth and crowding
Train can seat 650 passengersHigh season trains carry over 900Peak and reverse peak crowding
Crowding is concentrated in peak period, faster trains
Baby Bullet
Limited
Local
Why level boarding? Smoother.
Smooth schedule challenges with High Speed Rail blending
Ridership driven by Downtown Extension to Transbay Terminal
Credit: Clem TIllier
Service to Transbay
2 Caltrain trains to Transbay, in Caltrain electrification environmental impact report
6 Caltrain trains in blended system plan
10 Caltrain+HSR trains in blended system plan
16?? Maximum per preliminary engineering analysis???
Current Baby Bullet schedule concentrates ridership
Fast Baby bullets are crowded, locals have room
Stations with strong potential ridership have poor service - e.g. Cal Ave, San Antonio
Keeping up with capacity
SF Central Subway
SF - Downtown Extension to Transbay
SJ - BART to Diridon Station
HSR - 2029+
How to keep up with demand growth
Passengers per peak hour
Today 5 cars seated 3,250
Standing room 5 cars w/standees 4,225
6 car trains 6 cars x 5tph 5,070
Electrification 6 cars x 6tph 6,084
8 car trains 8 cars x 6tph 7,301
Increase freq. 8 cars x 8tph 9,710
Timeline
2016 - Positive Train Control2019 - Caltrain Electrification2019 - Central Subway202x - Longer platforms at major stations202x - BART to Diridon202x - Downtown Extension to Transbay - drives demand for more frequent service~2029 - High Speed Rail
Credits
Clem Tillier - Caltrain High Speed Rail Compatibility BlogGoogle - contributed to capacity analysis
Outtakes
Slides after here will not be presented
Adding Capacity - Standing Room
Current Caltrain goal is for 100% of riders to have a seatAverage Baby Bullet trip: 28 miles, 35 minAverage Peak Non-Baby Bullet: 20 miles, 30 minIn practice, 15-40% stand
Modify Caltrain cars for 25% comfortable standing?
Average BART trip length: 14 miles, ~20minAverage share of standees: 26%New BART cars designed for 10% more standing
Adding capacity: 6th car
Caltrain is purchasing used rail cars from MetroLink to add a 6th car to diesel trainset
Adding Capacity: Electrification
More frequent service: Faster acceleration, can stop at more stations in the same amount of time Spread ridership across peak hour trains: Locals more competitive with driving Less costly to add shoulder service: Electricity cheaper than diesel
Crowding is concentrated in peak period, faster trains
Baby Bullet
Limited
Local
Longer Platforms, Level Boarding
● Faster service (less time at station)
● Better feeder service: reliable transfers to BART, VTA
● Accessible for people with wheelchairs, strollers, luggage, bikes
● 8 car trains
Can fewer bike cars increase capacity?Bicycle takes space of one seat - would fewer bikes help?● 80% of Bay Area jobs are within 3 miles of Caltrain/BART● Many jobs are .5 to 3 miles from train● 5% use shuttle - $5-$6 per ride● 17% of Caltrain riders use a bicycle ● Bikes serve last mile with more flexibility than shuttle
Bike space efficiency opportunities
Secure bicycle parking at origin station● For bike users who can walk or take
shuttle at destination● Data: How many bring bike on board
because of lack of secure bike parking?
Better locations for last-mile stations○ Peninsula stations aren’t at major
work destinations○ How big are last-mile clusters at
N. Bayshore, Stanford Research Park, etc?
Electrification can help smooth service pattern and smooth peak
More frequent trains, grade separation● Blended system deal with High Speed Rail limits Caltrain
to 6 trains/direction/hour - maybe not!● Blended system can accommodate up to 8tph; up to 10tph
with passing tracks
● HSR business plan predicts 2.5 million riders per year in Peninsula commute
● So - Caltrain can start running more frequent service before HSR
● Frequency puts stress on at-grade crossings, need grade separation
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