ginis extreme weather & climate change 11.18.11

CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME WEATHER

Graduate School of Oceanography University of Rhode Island

ISAAC GINIS

Impact of Global Warming

Intensities

One of the most dangerous implications is worsening of extreme weather events around the world in respect to:

Frequencies

Fatalities and Damages

Global warming is associated with a broad spectrum of changes, such as decreases in snow cover and Arctic sea ice, warmer hot days and nights, rising sea levels, and ocean acidification.

Black lines: decadal averages of observations Blue band: 5-95% range 19 simulations from 5 climate models using only natural forcings Red band: 5-95% range for 58 simulations from 14 climate models using natural and anthropogenic forcings

Quelle: IPCC FoAR, 2007

Temperature is Rising in Every Continent

3

Heat stress

Cold stress

light

extreme high

moderate light

comfortable

moderate high

extreme

Temperature on 8 August 2003 and excess mortality

Sources: Robine et al., 2007; German Weather Service, 2004

19.500

9.400

15.000

300 2.300

20.100

2.700

1.000 800

August 2003 - Heat wave in Europe more than 70,000 fatalities

July 26, 2005 – Mumbai Flood •Meteorological station in Mumbai, India recorded 37 inches of rainfall within 24 hours •Highest ever in history of precipitation recordings in India.

More than 1150 fatalities

August 2005 - Hurricane Katrina

$110 billion direct damage More than 1,800 fatalities

June/July 2007 – Flood in the UK Largest flood economic losses ever

Source: www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/summer2007/index.html

Overall losses: > US$ 8 billion

7

February 2009 - Wildfires, Australia Largest on record

More than 175 fatalities

Source: Reuters, Berlin

Pakistan Russia China 2010

The hottest recorded summer in Russian history. 56,000 died.

February 2010 Snowmageddon in the U.S

Moisture from storm 2000 miles away: subtropical Atlantic where ocean temperatures at record high levels!

Courtesy of K. Trenberth

Blizzard February 2011 affected at least 30 U.S. states, more than 100 million people

New Hampshire

Chicago Milwaukee

Wisconsin

Blizzard 2011

2011 Southern US Drought

Texas experienced driest July-August period on record

Suffered an estimated $5.2 billion losses.

August 2011 - Hurricane Irene

Vermont Rhode Island

Philadelphia

• Landfall in NC, NJ, NY, CT • Affected 11 states • Fatalities: 56 • Damage: $10.1 billion

October 2011 - most extraordinary October snowstorm in over two centuries in the

Northeast U.S.

Newark, New Jersey reported 5.2” greatest October snowfall on record

Weather Disasters in U.S. Frequency & Economic Losses Increasing Dramatically

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/billionz.html

2011 IPCC Report: Extreme Weather Worsening

• New IPCC report confirms extreme weather worsening due to climate change.

• Scientists are virtually certain – 99% –world will have more periods of weather extremes through 21st century.

• 95% certain human actions contributed to trend and it will continue in future.

Other “High Impact” Weather Events • Not all “high impact events” are changing.

• There is insufficient evidence to determine

whether trends have occurred in “small spatial scale” events such as tornadoes, hail, lightning and dust storms.

United States Landfalling Hurricanes Do not Show any Long-term Trend

Image credit: NOAA/NHC

North Atlantic Hurricane Season Getting Longer

• In 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in Atlantic on or after November 1 -- average of 1 every 5 years

• In past 20 years, late-season hurricanes 3.5 times more frequent -- 15 late-season hurricanes.

Future Atlantic Hurricane Projections

• Colored bars show changes for the18 model CMIP3 ensemble (27 seasons); dots show range of changes across 4 individual CMIP models (13 seasons).

Cat 4+5 frequency: 81% increase, or 10% per decade

Source: Bender et al., Science, 2010.

Rainfall rates: 20% increase

Estimated net impact of these changes on damage potential: +28%

Late 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Projections

Source: Bender et al., Science, 2010

Projections of Extreme Weather Events in Rhode Island

• Currently ~12 to 15 nor’easters (extra-tropical

storms) hit U.S. Northeast November to March. • Projection -- 1 additional nor’easter could

affect the Northeast coast each winter by late century.

Projections of Extreme Weather Events in Rhode Island

• Higher sea levels and more intense storms. • Probability of increase in major coastal and

inland flood events. • Even minor storms will increase -- possibly

dramatically -- storm surge impacts such as coastal erosion.

Be Prepared!