glacial melt and downstream impacts on energy and water resrouces of indus basin
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Glacial Melt and Downstream Impacts on
Energy
Outcomes and Recommendations
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
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Pro ect Brief
Glacial Melt and Downstream Impacts on IndusDependent Water Resources and Energy
September 2009 to
Knowledge
June 2010
Collaboration of
ICIMOD and IUCN
Su orted b ADB
Screening
Focus on Indus basin
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Pro ect Outcomes
Gap analysis on the state of knowledge Stakeholder analysis and partnerships
Rapid climate and impact screening
Practical Mountain Glacier and Downstream Water
Risk Management Framework & Adaptation Guide
Proposal for potential climate change adaptation
Phase II ( Poster)
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Knowled e Platform
uploading ofcurrently 231papers/ reports/documents (status26 J ne 2010collection remainon-going as part of
Please send us your reports, articles, etc to make it more comprehensive
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Observed trendsAnnual Precipitation Deviation
-200.0
-100.0
0.0
100.0
200.0
adin
achi
ani
bad
hhor
hah
idan
bad
npur
un
di
ndin
lpur
ibbi
ltan
etta
bad
hore
han
lkot
bad
erat
inar
rree
wer
aku
l
bad
rosh
-600.0
-500.0
-400.0
-300.0
BKar Ji
Hyder C
Nawab P
adi
Jaco
bKha
No
kk
Dal
ba
Bahawal M Q
Faisa
lLa
D.I. S
i
Islam C
Parac
hM
Pes
h
Muza
ffar
Cities
Deviation {Mean(2001-2007) - Normal(1971-2000)}
(summer and
Summer Precipitation Deviation
50.0
100.0
extent winter)
South North
-250.0
-200.0
-150.0
-100.0
-50.0
.
Badin
Karachi
Jiwani
Hyderabad
Chhor
Nawabshah
Padidan
Jacobabad
Khanpur
Nokkundi
Dalbandin
Bahawalpur
Sibbi
Multan
Quetta
Faisalabad
Lahore
D.I.K
han
Sialkot
Islamabad
Cherat
Parachinar
Murree
Peshawer
Kakul
Muzaffarabad
Drosh
Cities
the northern
Deviation {Mean(2001-2007) - Normal(1971-2000)}
Winter Precipitation Deviation
0.0
50.0
100.0
-200.0
-150.0
-100.0
-50.0
Badin
Karachi
Jiwani
Hyderabad
Chhor
Nawabshah
Padidan
Jacobabad
Khanpur
Nokkundi
Dalbandin
Bahawalpur
Sibbi
Multan
Quetta
Faisalabad
Lahore
D.I.
Khan
Sialkot
Islamabad
Cherat
Parachinar
Murree
Peshawer
Kakul
Muzaffarabad
Drosh
CitiesDeviation {Mean(2001-2007) - Normal(1971-2000)}
(Rasul et al., 2010)
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Observed trends
Area-Weighted Annual Maximum Temperatureanomaly
Change Rate = 0.185C per decade
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
(oC)
years
-0.5
0.0
0.5
ratureAnomaly
-1.5
-1.0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Temp
(PMD, 2009)
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Observed trends
(Bhutiyani et al., 2009)
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U wards movements ofIsotherms
On theaverage, the30C isotherm
has nowmoved at 580m above its
location inearly 1980s.
(Rasul et a., 2008)
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Heat waves
Heat Waves Frequency over Northern Areas(when Max Temp > 35 Degrees) (consecutive 10 Days or above)
No. of heat
Northern
Longer
heat waves
(Rasul et al., 2008)
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Pro ected Tem eratureChanges
Pakistan (For A2 Scenario (a) and A1B Scenario (b) based on Ensembleof 13 GCMs)
(Syed et al., 2009)
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Chan es in the Indus basin(Precipitation)
-
(Rasul et al., 2010)
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Chan es in the Indus basin(Temperature)
-
(Rasul et al., 2010)
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Projected Change
-Pro ections
Re ionPrecipitation
(mm/Decade)
Temperature
(C/Decade)
low trend
A2 A1B B1 A2 A1B B1
Upper Indus +4.8 +2.7 -1.5 +0.79 +0.65 +0.35
significant
trend
NorthernPunjab &
Upper NWFP+8.1 +6.1 -0.1 +0.02 -0.35 -0.03
Central /
Temperaturetrends higher
SouthernPunjab &
Lower NWFP
-3.1 -1.97 -0.5 +0.71 +0.63 +0.07
High
for NorthernPakistan
Balochistan. . - . . . .
South-EasternSindh
+7.3 +5.2 -0.01 +0.03 -0.21 +0.10
Sindh & Lower
Balochistan -2.87 -1.13-0.0
9 +0.55 +0.59 +0.07 (Rasul et al., 2010)
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Summar(based on Literature)
Basin Trend Projection Uncertainty
Upper Decreasingtemperatureduringmonsoon Increasingprecipitationand BothtrendsandprojectionsareIndus season;increasingtemperatureinspring
andwinter;increasedprecipitation;morerainfallthansnow;Glaciersmainlyretreating,someadvancing
temperature. showingincreasingtrendsforprecipitation.Fortemperaturehowevertheyshowdifferenttrends.
Lower
Indus
Temperaturehasdecreased,whileprecipitationhasincreased.Noglaciers.
Bothprecipitationandtemperatureareprojectedtoincrease.
Trendsandprojectionsshowdifferenttrendsinthecaseoftemperature.
Kabul Indicationsarethatmeanannual Currentmodelsindicate IngeneralthereisagreementtemperaturesinAfghanistanareincreasing.Meanrainfalloverthesameperiodhasdecreasedslightly,mainlyduetodecreasesinspringprecipitation.
significantwarmingacrossallregionsofAfghanistanandconditionsareexpectedtobecomedrier.Inadditionglaciers
betweenthedifferentstudies
Glaciersare
retreating.
This
combination
offactorshasledtoaprolongeddroughtinrecentyears.
aregradually
disappearing.
Jhelum, Decreasingannualprecipitationand Bothtemperatureand TrendsuptodateandtheChenab,
Beas,
Ravi,
Satluj
warmingtrendoverall,leadingtodrierconditionsintheareas.Glaciersaremostlyretreating.
precipitationareexpectedtoincrease.
projectionsintothefuturearenotinagreement
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Summar Observed trendBasin Trend
temperatureinspringandwinter;increasedprecipitation;morerainfallthansnow.Glaciersmainlyretreating,someadvancing
ower n us emperature as ecrease ,w eprec p tat on as ncrease . oglaciers.
Kabul IndicationsarethatmeanannualtemperaturesinAfghanistanareincreasing.Meanrainfalloverthesameperiodhasdecreasedslightly,mainlyduetodecreasesinspringprecipitation.Glaciersareretreating.Thiscombinationoffactorshasledtoaprolongeddroughtinrecentyears.
Jhelum,Chenab, Decreasingannualprecipitationandwarmingtrendoverall,leadingSatluj
. .
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Summar Pro ectionBasin Projection
.
LowerIndus Bothprecipitationandtemperatureareprojectedtoincrease.Kabul Currentmodelsindicatesignificantwarmingacrossallregionsof
Afghanistanandconditionsareexpectedtobecomedrier.Inadditionglaciersaregraduallydisappearing.
Jhelum,Chenab,
Beas,Ravi,Satluj
Bothtemperatureandprecipitationareexpectedtoincrease.
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Summar UncertaintBasin Uncertainty
precipitation.Fortemperaturehowevertheyshowdifferenttrends.
ower n us ren san pro ect onss ow erenttren s nt ecaseotemperature.
Kabul Ingeneralthereisagreementbetweenthedifferentstudies
Jhelum,Chenab,
Beas,Ravi,SatlujTrendsuptodateandtheprojectionsintothefuturearenotinagreement
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No change in Tarbela inflow(1961-2004; Ali et al., 2009)
Decreasing runoff in Hunza riverbetween 1961 and 2000 in spring(46%) and summer (35%; Fowlerand Archer, 2006)
Decreasing runoff in Hunza riverbetween 1961 and 2000 in spring(46%) and summer (35%; Fowlerand Archer, 2006)
Kabul
Significant decreasing trend inKabul river (1961-2004; Ali etal., 2009)
Significant decreasing trend inKabul river (1961-2004; Ali etal., 2009)
No trend observed in Shyok(1961-2000; Fowler andArcher, 2006)
Chenab
Indus
No flow trend in Mangla inflows(1922-2004; Ali et al., 2009)
No trend in flow at Kalabagh(1922-2002; Ali et al., 2009)
Satluj
BeasRavi
Increasing trend in Chenab(1922-2004; Ali et al., 2009)Increasing trend in Chenab(1922-2004; Ali et al., 2009)
IndusPlain
Significant reduction at Kotri(different authors)Significant reduction at Kotri(different authors)
Flow changes
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Glaciers in the CentralKarakorum thickening andadvancing, while glaciers in the
Glaciers in the CentralKarakorum thickening andadvancing, while glaciers in the
The glacier area in Afghanistanand surrounding countriesdecreased by nearly 40% over
the ast 40 ears Zonn, 2002
The glacier area in Afghanistanand surrounding countriesdecreased by nearly 40% over
the ast 40 ears Zonn, 2002Kabul
adjacent areas to the North andWest continue to diminish(Hewitt, 2005)
adjacent areas to the North andWest continue to diminish(Hewitt, 2005)
Jhelum
Chenab
Upper
Indus
BeasRavi
The vast majority of the studieson different glaciers in theWestern Himalayas showretreating snouts and decreasing
glacial mass balances (UNEP,
The vast majority of the studieson different glaciers in theWestern Himalayas showretreating snouts and decreasing
glacial mass balances (UNEP,at u
IndusPlain
Glacier dynamics
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Glacier information
Qin 2002Qin 2002
52,850 km2
20052005
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Knowled e a s
the Indus river basin Status
Dynamics mass balance!
Comprehensive modelling of impact on waterresources Data availability and quality
Uncertainty of predictions: conflicting results
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Ra id screenin 1
en ca on o r s s assoc a e o e par cu arintervention
Assessment of potential risk management and
Existing
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Ra id screenin 2
f r k r nin
Potential climate hazards/stresses
Vulnerability of the project objectivesPreliminary assessment of risk management options
Verification of above steps + 3 steps for field screening Detailed assessment of existing/potential risk
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Ra id screenin 3
ro ec s oun ry
Punjab Irrigated Agricultural Investment Program Pakistan
Renewable Energy Development Sector Investment Program Pakistan
New Bong Escape Hydropower Project Pakistan
Power Transmission Enhancement Investment Program Pakistan
Small to Medium-Sized Hydropower Development Project Afghanistan
nergy ec or eve opmen nves men rogram g an s an
Field Screening
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Ra id screenin 4 Details in Screening report
Project Remarks
1 2 3
001-2010:X
The project is particularly affected by the looming water crisis.
Agricultural
Investment
water supply in the canals has reduced in the last ten years
(Mahmood-ul-Hassan, personal communication). For this reason
the project includes several adaptation options in on-farm watermanagement, groundwater management and institution reforms,
which are all believed to increase the resilience of the farmers in
the command area of LBDC. In terms of flooding there is a large
.
design of the structures is based on the assumption that Thein
dam will have a beneficial impact on floods of high magnitude. For
this reason the design floods are reduced and currently only the
1:50 years flood is being considered for the design of the barrage.
Overall, it is clear, that the main issue for this project is water
availability followed far behind by riverine and flash floods.
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Risk Management and AdaptationRisk Management and Adaptation Project ScreeningProject Screening
ep azar assessmenazar assessmen project vulnerable to any climate hazards?)Step A1: Determine the basin in which the project is located;Step A2: Identify the hazard level for this basin.
Step B Vulnerability assessmentVulnerability assessment Q2: Vulnerabilities (Are the interventions
objectives vulnerable to variations inclimate?)Step B1: Determine the development field;Step B2: Identify the different impacts of the respective hazards on theproject;
tep : ss gn t e appropr ate eve s to t e t ree components ovulnerability;Step B4: Determine the level impact on the society and the strategicimportance;Step B5: Determine the appropriate vulnerability level.
Step C1: on the basis of the hazard and vulnerability levels, determine the appropriate risk level;Step C2: Determine the appropriate action and validate this recommendation..
and adaptation options
and adaptation options
Step D1: Identify potential options;Step D2: Rate the different options;
intervention already take climate hazardsinto consideration?
AndQ6: Risk management options (What risk
mana ement o tions are to be
RecommendationRecommendationStep E
ep : ummar ze a op ons.implemented? What options could be
implemented in addition?)
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Prime Ministers Committee onClimate Change (PMCCC)
Prime Ministers Committee onClimate Change (PMCCC)
Ministry of Foreign AffairsMinistry of Foreign Affairs Development Banks
Bilateral DonorsMinistry of Food and AgricultureMinistry of Food and Agriculture
Int. Funding AgenciesInt. Funding AgenciesFederal MinistriesFederal Ministries
Task Force on ClimateChange
(PC-TFCC)
Task Force on ClimateChange
(PC-TFCC)
UN Agencies
Ministry of Water and PowerMinistry of Water and Power
Ministry of LivestockMinistry of Livestock
--
Ministry of EducationMinistry of EducationWWF
ICIMOD Oxfam
SDPI
.organisations/INGOs/NGOs
.organisations/INGOs/NGOs
Ministry of HealthMinistry of Health
LEAD-Pak
Technical Advisory Panel
(TAP)
Technical Advisory Panel
(TAP)
SCOPE
IUCN RSPsRelevant Provincial
Line Departments
Relevant Provincial
Line Departments
n stry o nv ronmentn stry o nv ronment
NARC/PARCNARC/PARC WAPDAWAPDA
NDMANDMA
GCISCGCISC PMD PMD
NIONIOPFIPFI SUPARCOSUPARCO
PCRETPCRET
Pak-EPAPak-EPAMember TAPMember TAP
LegendLegend
PIDEPIDEPAECPAEC
HDIPHDIP
CIITCIIT
AEDBAEDB
PCRWRPCRWR
AgriculturalAgricultural
PIDPID
Research/Data collectionResearch/Data collection
Member PC-TFCCMember PC-TFCC
Direction/SupervisionDirection/Supervision
GovernmentGovernmentAcademic InstitutionsAcademic Institutions
MitigationMitigation AdaptationAdaptation
ENERCONENERCONun vers esun vers es n . un ngn . un ng
NGO/INGONGO/INGO
Private sectorPrivate sector Private sectorPrivate sector
Stakeholderlandscape
Stakeholderlandscape
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Recommendations
Build capacity of relevant national institutions to adequately monitor andpro ec e mpac s o c ma e c ange ownsca ng o c ma e c ange
scenarios to sub-basin level, transboundary assessment of glacier dynamicsand water resources modeling of the Indus river and its tributaries);
Identify appropriate adaptation options suitable for the water and energy
sector and different locations in the Indus basin through enhanced researchase, p o s u es an n egra e p ann ng approac es;
Make water and energy programmes and projects climate proof through the
application of suitable tools to identify vulnerabilities and threats and with thehelp of the adaptation options identified above;
Support the creation of a favourable environment for the implementation of
climate change adaptation activities through awareness creation, policydialogue. Poster
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Thank ou
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