global environmental change and food systems insights from the southern african millennium ecosystem...

Global Environmental Change and Food Systems

Insights from the Southern African Millennium

Ecosystem Assessment

SAfMA scope: food systems

• Human well-being• Hunger & Nutrition

• Livelihoods

• Determinants• Production

• Access

• Impacts & trade-offs• Biodiversity

• Water

• Scenarios

Hunger and nutrition are significant

~75% of protein is from vegetable sources, esp cereals

Important contributions from ‘wild foods’

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Carb

oh

yd

rate

s (

cal/p

ers

on

/day)

Nit

rog

en

ou

s f

ert

liser

(1000t)

45

50

55

60

Pro

tein

(g

ram

s/p

ers

on

/day)

Carbohydrates

Protein

Fertiliser use

7

12

Both production and access are important

Misselhorn 2005 Global Environmental Change

Food systems – key characteristics

• Production potential is more than adequate to meet demand, but restricted by:

• Lack of capital – technology• Marketing constraints – SADC & intl. agreements, infrastructure

• Impact of climate change small compared to difference between actual & potential production

• Access key issue, even where production is adequate

• Large fraction of people base livelihoods on agriculture – subsistence or agricultural labour

• Livestock acts as capital investment • Not driven only by food demands

Scenarios

• Several recent scenario exercises exist for SADC region

• Synthesized using MA conceptual framework• African Patchwork

• African Partnership – NEPAD documents

Key drivers within scenarios

• Governance critical uncertainty at all scales

• Effectiveness of policy, regional integration & stability

• Economic growth, trade

• Infrastructure

• Science and technological investment & growth

• Population growth, urbanization

• Rising demand for meat products – chicken, beef, fish

• HIV/AIDS – primarily affects work force and skills

2000 2030African

PatchworkAfrican

Partnership

Weak central governanceLow economic growthPoor regional cooperation

Strong central governanceHigh economic growthStrong regional cooperation

IMAGE land-cover model

Significant expansion of agricultural land

• Suggests link btw ecosystem service degradation & social tension

• Likely to be a two-directional pathway

Important interconnections

GECAFS Southern Africa workshop

Top 10 emerging and key stressors

Utilisation Access Availability Climate variability HIV/AIDS Urbanisation/Migration Information Unemployment Water stress Monetary policies Food Retailing Policies/Trends New Technology Transport Infrastructure