global environmental change and food systems insights from the southern african millennium ecosystem...
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Global Environmental Change and Food Systems
Insights from the Southern African Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment
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SAfMA scope: food systems
• Human well-being• Hunger & Nutrition
• Livelihoods
• Determinants• Production
• Access
• Impacts & trade-offs• Biodiversity
• Water
• Scenarios
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Hunger and nutrition are significant
~75% of protein is from vegetable sources, esp cereals
Important contributions from ‘wild foods’
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Carb
oh
yd
rate
s (
cal/p
ers
on
/day)
Nit
rog
en
ou
s f
ert
liser
(1000t)
45
50
55
60
Pro
tein
(g
ram
s/p
ers
on
/day)
Carbohydrates
Protein
Fertiliser use
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7
12
Both production and access are important
Misselhorn 2005 Global Environmental Change
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Food systems – key characteristics
• Production potential is more than adequate to meet demand, but restricted by:
• Lack of capital – technology• Marketing constraints – SADC & intl. agreements, infrastructure
• Impact of climate change small compared to difference between actual & potential production
• Access key issue, even where production is adequate
• Large fraction of people base livelihoods on agriculture – subsistence or agricultural labour
• Livestock acts as capital investment • Not driven only by food demands
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Scenarios
• Several recent scenario exercises exist for SADC region
• Synthesized using MA conceptual framework• African Patchwork
• African Partnership – NEPAD documents
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Key drivers within scenarios
• Governance critical uncertainty at all scales
• Effectiveness of policy, regional integration & stability
• Economic growth, trade
• Infrastructure
• Science and technological investment & growth
• Population growth, urbanization
• Rising demand for meat products – chicken, beef, fish
• HIV/AIDS – primarily affects work force and skills
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2000 2030African
PatchworkAfrican
Partnership
Weak central governanceLow economic growthPoor regional cooperation
Strong central governanceHigh economic growthStrong regional cooperation
IMAGE land-cover model
Significant expansion of agricultural land
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• Suggests link btw ecosystem service degradation & social tension
• Likely to be a two-directional pathway
Important interconnections
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GECAFS Southern Africa workshop
Top 10 emerging and key stressors
Utilisation Access Availability Climate variability HIV/AIDS Urbanisation/Migration Information Unemployment Water stress Monetary policies Food Retailing Policies/Trends New Technology Transport Infrastructure
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