millennium ecosystem assessment overview september 2003
TRANSCRIPT
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Overview
September 2003
ISSUE: Human demand for ecosystem services is quickly growing around the world…
Water
One-third of the world’s population is now subject to water scarcity.
Population facing water scarcity will double over the next 30 years
Food
Food production must increase to meet the needs of an additional 3 billion people over the next 30 years
Timber
Wood fuel is the only source of fuel for one third of the world’s population.
Wood demand will double in next 50 years.
ISSUE: A recent study* shows that the capacity of many ecosystems to provide certain services has been declining…
Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
Bad
Not Assessed
Agro-ec
osyste
m
Coastal
System
s
Forest S
ystem
s
Freshwate
r
Grassla
nds
Food-Fiber Production
Water Quality
Water Quantity
Biodiversity
Carbon StorageIncreasing
Decreasing
Mixed
Condition of Ecosystem
ChangingCapacity
Key
*Source: Pilot Assessment of Global Ecosystems. 2000. WRI, IFPRI
Ecosystem Type
Services
ISSUE: Despite knowledge of the increasing demand and diminishing or endangered supply, science is not being effectively brought to bear on these challenges…
Existing mechanisms for linking science and policy are highly sectoral whereas the major problems today are increasingly multisectoral.
Such mechanisms include: Forest Resource Assessment, World Water Assessment, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, etc.
Significant issues identified by scientists are not on policy
agendas. E.g., Change in nitrogen and phosphorous cycles receives little
attention outside of scientific literature New data sources, methodologies and models are underutilized
in many countries. E.g., Remote sensing tools and data; Scenarios development
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is: An international scientific assessment to be completed in 2004 Designed to meet a portion of the assessment needs of
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD), Ramsar Wetlands Convention, other partners including the private sector and civil society
Focused on the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-being
Undertaken at multiple scales (local to global) Designed to both provide information and build capacity to
provide information Expected to be repeated at 5-10 year intervals if it
successfully meets needs
The MA focuses on:
Ecosystem services
The consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well being
The consequences of changes in ecosystems for other life on earth
Ecosystem Services are the benefits people obtain
from ecosystems
RegulatingBenefits obtained from regulation of
ecosystem processes
• climate regulation• disease regulation
• flood regulation
• detoxification
ProvisioningGoods produced or
provided by ecosystems
• food • fresh water• fuel wood
• fiber• biochemicals
• genetic resources
CulturalNon-material benefits
obtained from ecosystems
• spiritual • recreational
• aesthetic• inspirational• educational • communal• symbolic
SupportingServices necessary for production of other ecosystem services
• Soil formation• Nutrient cycling
• Primary production
The MA considers the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being
The MA is an Integrated Assessment IPCC looks at impacts of one driver (climate) on different systems;
MA will integrate the effects of multiple drivers on all ecosystems Driver
Response
HumanImpact
Ecosystems
Health Economics Social
ClimateChange
Land CoverChange
BiodiversityLoss
NutrientLoading Etc.
Millennium AssessmentIPCC
Climate Change
Energy Sector Biodiversity Food
Supply Water
Health Economics Social
Organizational Structure of the MA
Sub-Global AssessmentWorking Group
Sub-Global AssessmentWorking Group ConditionCondition ScenariosScenarios ResponseResponse
Global Assessment Working Groups
MA BoardMA Board
Assessment PanelWorking Group ChairsAssessment PanelWorking Group Chairs
Support FunctionsDirector, Administration,
Logistics, Data Management
Support FunctionsDirector, Administration,
Logistics, Data Management
Outreach & Engagement
Outreach & Engagement
Review Board Chairs
Review Board Chairs
Chapter Review Editors
Chapter Review Editors
Status: MA Timeline of Activities
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1st Design Mtg
UN Launch
2nd Design Mtg
1st WG Mtgs
2nd WG Mtgs
Conceptual Framework Report
Release
3rd WG Mtgs
Joint WG Mtg
Begin Review
Board Approval
Assessment & Synthesis Release &Outreach
Review WG Mtgs
The MA Board and design are reflective of a full spectrum of stakeholder groups:
Private sectorPrivate sector
• MA has developed a close relationship with the World Business Council on Sustainable Development
• Individual companies are represented by Board members• MA findings will be relevant to intermediaries such as credit
agencies, institutional investors, and trade organizations
Media and PublicMedia and Public
National and sub-national governments
National and sub-national governments
• ~180 governments have endorsed the MA through their participation in international conventions
• Administrative authorities are also engaged as users at other levels
International organizationsInternational organizations
• The MA was featured as a key action in the UN Secretary-General’s “Millennium Report”, April 2000
• The MA was launched by Kofi Annan, June 2001
• 13 international institutions are directly represented on the MA Board
Local communities and civil society
Local communities and civil society
• Traditional knowledge of indigenous groups will be incorporated in the MA
• MA has been designed to meet some assessment needs of indigenous and local communities
• MA will provide information to various news outlets, journals, etc.
• Findings may become part of a public information campaign on ecosystems
Status: Development of Content
Conceptual Framework Report completed 500 Authors, 80 countries 2-3 meetings of each Working Group Cross-cut meetings: Biodiv, Drivers, Health, Food, Marine,
Water Zero order draft chapters for ~all chapters except Sub-
Global 10 Sub-global assessments approved 12 additional ‘candidates’ Review Board established Core datasets available On-line data catalog and exploration tool Cross-check against user needs
Status: Process of User Engagement
Strengthened CBD and Ramsar Authorization and CCD links
CMS new authorizing convention Country strategies underway in 25 countries
(e.g., national user forums during 2003 involving ~700 people)
Private sector industry group briefings + WBCSD workshops
Board communications committee 20 National Academies as partners
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)
First MA Product, published
September 2003
Conceptual Framework Report: “Ecosystems and Human Well-Being”
Purpose: To provide a unified approach, rationale, and
terminology for the assessment All members of the assessment panel and CLAs from all
Working Groups were engaged in writing To inform MA users as well as the scientific
community of the nature of the product to come and its foundation
To provide information to those interested in applying elements of the MA in other assessment activities
Conceptual Framework
Using the Conceptual Framework as a guide, MA Working Groups will try to answer core questions
Scenarios Working Group Given plausible changes in
primary drivers, what will be the consequences for ecosystems, their services, and human well-being?
Responses Working Group What can we do about it?
Sub-Global Assessment Working GroupAll of the above… at sub-global scales
Conditions and Trends Working Group
What is the current condition and historical trends of ecosystems and their services?
What have been the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-being?
Condition and Trends Assessment Report
I Introduction CF, Methods, Drivers, Biodiversity,
Human Well-Being and Vulnerability
II Ecosystem Services Analysed by major ecosystem
services
III Condition and Causality – Analyzed by Ecosystems
Multiple services from various systems
IV Synthesis
MA Reporting Categories or “Systems” examples
MARINE Ocean, with fishing typically a major driver of change
Marine areas where the sea is deeper than 50 meters.
COASTAL Interface between ocean and land, extending seawards to about the middle of the continental shelf and inland to include all areas strongly influenced by the proximity to the ocean
Area between 50 meters below mean sea level and 50 meters above the high tide level or extending landward to a distance 100 kilometers from shore. Includes coral reefs, intertidal zones, estuaries, coastal aquaculture, and seagrass communities.
INLANDWATER
Permanent water bodies inland from the coastal zone, and areas whose ecology and use are dominated by the permanent, seasonal, or intermittent occurrence of flooded conditions
Rivers, lakes, floodplains, reservoirs, and wetlands; includes inland saline systems. Note that the Ramsar Convention considers “wetlands” to include both inland water and coastal categories.
Goal: Develop scenarios that embrace a useful range of plausible futures of the world’s ecosystem services
Our vision of scenarios Embrace plausible outcomes of unpredictable
and ambiguous drivers (as well as predictable ones) Emphasize surprises, not central tendencies
Consistent with state-of-the-art ecological information Quantitative and qualitative
To the year 2050 (slices looking at years between now and then)
Rosy
TechnoFix
VariedExpt
DevelopFix
Fortress
More Positive
More Neutral
More Negative
Joint Development with Responses
Working GroupRetrospective
Based on Millennium Development GoalsNo new modeling
Developed by Scenarios Working Group
ProspectiveQuantified
Relationships and Interactions of People and Nature
connected
disaggregatedGlo
bal i
nstit
utio
ns
responsive proactive
Approach to cross-scale feedbacks
Development Fix
Fortress
Technological fix
VariedExperiments
Scenarios Framework
Scenarios Assessment Report Outline
Executive SummaryPrefaceChapter 1. History of global scenariosChapter 2. Ecology in global scenariosChapter 3. Driving forcesChapter 4. Assessment of quantification and modeling
approachesChapter 5. MethodsChapter 6. Preamble to the scenariosChapter 7. StorylinesChapter 8. Ecosystem goods and services across the
scenariosChapter 9. Human well-being across the scenariosChapter 10. Trade-offs among ecosystem servicesChapter 11. Synthesis: Lessons learnedChapter 12. Synthesis: Policy implications
Responses Working Group Timeline
1st WG Meeting: New Delhi, June 2002
Zero Order Drafts: March 2003 2nd WG Meeting: Frankfurt, May 2003
Responses are defined as the range of policies or measures that impact the state and functioning of ecosystems: Measures that impact eco-systems directly or
indirectly Initiated by decision makers at global, regional or
local levels Legal, economic, financial, institutional,
technological, social or cognitive interventions Planned to affect indirect drivers, direct drivers, or
human well-being
Responses in the MA
Part I: Conceptual Framework for Evaluating Responses
Part II: Assessment of Past and Current Responses
Part III: Synthesis: “Ingredients for successful responses”
Responses Assessment Report Structure
Multiple ScalesThe MA is a multi-scale assessment - it is expected that findings at any scale of a multi-scale assessment will differ from those of a single-scale assessment as a result of information and perspectives from other scales
Regional
UsersRegional Development Banks, etc.
NationalGovernment
Local Community
Global Assessment
National
Local
Why undertake a multi-scale assessment?
Permit social and ecological processes to be assessed at their characteristic scale
Allow greater spatial, temporal, causal detail to be considered as scale becomes finer
Allow independent validation of larger-scale conclusions
Permit reporting and response options matched to the scale where decision-making takes place
MA Cross-cutting Issues
PragueCombined WG
Condition
Scenarios
Responses
Sub-Global
2002 2003 2004
Biodiversity
Health CoastalMarine
Food
Water
DrylandsDrivers
Seven issues were identified that cut across all working groups.
Special meetings have been held to address these “cross-cutting” issues.
What are the Outputs of the Global Assessment? 2003 People and Ecosystems: A Framework for Assessment
Release: September MA Data Catalog
Datasets being used in the MA
2004 Conference Proceedings: Bridging Scales and
Epistemologies in Multi-scale Assessments
2005 Technical Assessment Reports (300-800 pages ea.) and
Summaries for Decision-makers (SDMs) Sub-global Assessment Condition/Trends Assessment Scenario Assessment Response Options Assessment Summary Volume (SDMs of 4 reports)
2005 Synthesis Reports (30-50 page)
Ecosystems and Human Well-being Biodiversity (CBD) Desertification (CCD) Wetlands (Ramsar) Private Sector Health and Ecosystems (tentative) Food and Cultivated Systems (tentative)
Board Summary of Key Messages (10 p.) Other Products
Reports available over internet (multiple language for summary docs) Interactive web-based MA indicator exploration capability Partnerships for expanded outreach: radio, theatre, documentaries,
film (tentative) Partnerships for capacity-building/training outreach (tentative)
Assessment Outputs: Global (continued)
India Pilot Assessment (2000) Final Assessment (2005)
Southern Africa Assessment Pilot Assessment (2002) Final Assessment (2005)
Norway Pilot Assessment (2002) Coastal British Columbia (Final 2004) Small Islands of Papua New Guinea (Final 2005) Laguna Lake Basin Philippines (Final 2005) Northern Range Trinidad (Final 2005) Sweden Local Assessments (Final 2005) Salar de Atacama, Chile (Final 2005) Mekong Wetlands, Vietnam (Final 2005) Sinai Peninsula (Final 2005) Western China (Final 2006)
What are the Outputs of the Sub-Global Assessments?
Capacity Building
A Central Objective of the MA, capacity building will occur through multiple outlets:
Access to Data/Information Sub-Global Assessments Training Materials Young Fellows Program Scenarios and Modeling Training Course
Partnerships for Distance Learning
The Secretariat remains open to the identification and development of other capacity building opportunities during the course of the assessment.
Director’s OfficeThe World Fish Center
(ICLARM), Malaysia
Director’s OfficeThe World Fish Center
(ICLARM), Malaysia
Sub-Global TSU,ICLARM, Malaysia
Sub-Global TSU,ICLARM, Malaysia
Condition TSUUNEP-WCMC, U.K.
(& South Africa)
Condition TSUUNEP-WCMC, U.K.
(& South Africa)
Scenarios TSUSCOPE, France
(& Italy, United States)
Scenarios TSUSCOPE, France
(& Italy, United States)
Response Options TSUInstitute for Economic
Growth, India(& RIVM, Netherlands)
Response Options TSUInstitute for Economic
Growth, India(& RIVM, Netherlands)
GEF, UNF Grant AdministrationUNEP,Kenya
GEF, UNF Grant AdministrationUNEP,Kenya
Distributed SecretariatIndividuals and Organizations around the world support the entire process
Outreach & Engagement WRI & Meridian Institute,
USA
Outreach & Engagement WRI & Meridian Institute,
USA
Meeting SupportMeridian Institute, USA
Meeting SupportMeridian Institute, USA
TSU: Technical Support Unit . Organizations/countries listed in parentheses provide or host additional support and technical staff
FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTIONS(~ $17 MILLION)
MA receives financial and in-kind contributions from a variety of sources
Sponsors
• Global Environment Facility
• United Nations Foundation
• Packard Foundation
• World Bank
• United Nations Environment Program
Other Donors
• Government of Norway
• Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
• Rockefeller Foundation
• NASA
• ICSU
• Swedish International Biodiversity Programme
• Christensen Fund
IN-KIND CONTRIBUTIONS(~ $6 MILLION)
• Norway
• China
• India
• Japan
• Germany
• Netherlands
• United States (NASA, USGS, ORNL, USDA)
• European Commission
• FAO, UNDP, WHO, UNESCO, UNEP
• ICRAF, ICLARM
• Numerous other countries, NGOs, Universities and other institutions are supporting travel costs of experts
Visit the MA Websitewww.millenniumassessment.org