The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment:

Opportunities in agriculture research

GFAR Triennial Conference 2006Vigyan Bhavan New Delhi

9-11 November 2006

Alexander J. MüllerAssistant Director-General

FAO Sustainable Development Department

Global assessment of the Earth’s ecosystems

Preparation and review

� Prepared by 1,360 experts from 95 countries

� Independent review editors (80 experts)

� Review comments from 850 experts and governments

� Information from 33 sub-global assessments

Governance

� Launched by UN Secretary General in 2000

� Authorized by governments through 4 multi-lateral environmental agreements – CBD, CCD, FCCC, Ramsar� Independent board of directors - UN agencies, conventions, business and industry, governments, non-governmental organizations, indigenous people

MA Framework

Unprecedented ecosystem change

During the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period time in human history:

� Approximately 60% (15 out of 24) of ecosystem services evaluated being degraded or used unsustainably

� More land converted to cropland since 1945 than in 18th, 19th

centuries combined� Coral reefs reduced by 20% in last decades� Mangrove area reduced by 35% in last decades� Water in reservoirs quadrupled since 1960� Withdrawals from rivers and lakes doubled since 1960� Biological nitrogen flows in terrestrial ecosystems doubled since

1960; phosphorus flows tripled � Mammal, bird, and amphibian species (10–30%) currently

threatened with extinction

Habitat transformation

� Further 10–20% of grassland and forestland may be converted by 2050

Overexploitation, overfishing

� Pressures on commercial fish stocks expected to continue & even intensify.

Invasive alien species

� Introduction of non-native species will continue to increase

Nutrient loading

� Flow of reactive nitrogen doubled - ?60% further increase by 2050?

Climate change

� Could become the dominant driver of ecosystem change by the end of the century

... continued ecosystem change

Key issue: Intensive use in most ecosystems

Key issue: Population vs. productivity

Key issue: Pressure on fish stocks

Key issue: Species extinctions

Key issue: Climate change

Key issue: Excess nutrients

MA Scenarios

� Not predictions – scenarios are plausible futures

� Both quantitative models and qualitative analysis used in scenario development

Future scenario responses

Global Orchestration

� Major investments in public goods - education, infrastructure, poverty reduction

� Trade barriers and distorting subsidies eliminated

Adapting Mosaic

� Widespread use of active adaptive management

� Investment in education (13% of GDP on education, compared to 3.5% today)

TechnoGarden

� Significant investment in technologies to increase efficiency ofuse of ecosystem services

� Widespread use of ‘payments for ecosystem services’ and market mechanisms

Importance of indirect drivers

Ecosystem degradation can rarely be reversed without addressing indirect drivers of change:

� Population change (including growth and migration)

� Change in economic activity (including economic growth, disparities in wealth, and trade patterns)

� Socio-political factors (ranging from presence of conflict to public participation in decision-making)

� Cultural factors

� Technological change

Collectively these factors influence levels of production and consumption of ecosystem services and their sustainability.

Key barriers

� Inappropriate or weak institutional and governance arrangements, including regulation, accountability and capacity to manage ecosystems.

� Market failures and misalignment of economic incentives

� Lack of political or economic power of low income groups dependent on ecosystem services

� Under-investment in development and diffusion of some technologies

� Insufficient knowledge (as well as poor use of existing knowledge) concerning ecosystem services and responses that could enhance benefits while conserving resources

Responses: Institutions

Further changes in institutional and environmental governance frameworks are needed to create enabling conditions for effective management of ecosystems.

Promising options

� Integration of ecosystem management goals within agriculture, natural resource development frameworks

� Increased coordination among multilateral environmental agreements and between environmental agreements and other international economic and social institutions

� Increased transparency and accountability of government and private-sector performance on decisions that have an impact on ecosystems, including through greater involvement of concerned stakeholders in decision-making

Economic and financial interventions can provide powerful

incentives to regulate use of ecosystem goods and

services

Promising options

� Greater use of economic instruments and market-based

approaches in management of ecosystem services:

· Taxes or user fees for activities with “external” costs

· Payment for ecosystem services

· Use of certification schemes for agriculture/fisheries/forestry

� Reduction of subsidies that promote excessive use of

key ecosystem services (e.g. watershed protection, soil fertility, biodiversity loss)

Responses: Economics

Responses: Social & Behavioral

These are generally interventions that stakeholders initiate and execute by exercising their procedural or democratic rights to improve ecosystems and human well-being

Promising options

� Measures to reduce aggregate consumption of unsustainably managed ecosystem services

· Behavioral changes that reduce demand for threatened ecosystem services can be encouraged through education and public awareness programs, promotion of demand-side management, commitments by industry to use raw materials from certified sources, and improved product labeling

� Investment in communication and education

� Empowerment of vulnerable groups dependent on ecosystem services or affected by their degradation, including women, indigenous peoples, young people

Responses: Technological

Development and diffusion of technologies designed to increase the efficiency of resource use or reduce the impacts of drivers such as climate change and nutrient loading are essential

Promising options

� Technologies and management regimes that increase crop yields with less intensive inputs (e.g. water, nutrients, pesticides)

� Diversification of crop production systems (e.g. biofuel crops, crop / livestock systems)

� Exploitation of opportunities with benefits at multiple scales (e.g. carbon sequestration)

� Maintenance, restoration of supporting elements for ecosystem services (e.g. vegetative cover, species diversity, soil fertility)

� Increased energy efficiency and reduced greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. rice and methane)

Responses: Knowledge

Effective management of ecosystems is constrained by lack of knowledge and information about ecosystems but also by the failure to use adequately information that does exist.

Promising options

� Building thematic knowledge networks and communities of practice around ecosystem services

� Linking relevant knowledge and information to assessments and decision-making, including traditional and practitioner knowledge

� Enhancement of human and institutional capacity to assess consequences of ecosystem change on human well-being

� Policies and priorities based on such assessments

Summary

Relevant aspects for agriculture research:

� Cross-disciplinary, systemic approaches are needed to address complex issues

� Not just agronomic challenges, significant social and economic issues require multi-disciplinary approaches

� More emphasis on indirect drivers of agroecosystem change (people and policies) as points of leverage

� Agroecosystem research priorities adapted to prevailing conditions

� Better understanding of agroecosystem thresholds vis-a-visresponse to damage and provision of services

� Communicating agroecosystem approaches to land users

Thank you.