goldman sachs 2013 macro conf

Goldman Sachs 2013 Global Macro Conference

New York

May 15, 2013

Michael Milken Chairman, The Milken Institute

Toward a More Prosperous Future

Milken Institute Global Conference

• Finance

• Industries

• Regions

• Education

• Human Capital

• Philanthropy

• Health

• Climate/Energy

• Government

• Media

April 28 – May 1, 2013

www.milkeninstitute.org

Milken Institute Global Conference

• 165 panels

• 620 speakers

• 3,700 attendees www.milkeninstitute.org

April 27 – 30, 2014

Investing in African Prosperity

Michael Milken Chairman,

Milken Institute

Rhonda Zygocki Executive Vice

President, Policy and Planning

Chevron

H.E. Paul Kagame President

Republic of Rwanda

Bill Gates Co-Chair and Trustee Bill & Melinda Gates

Foundation

Tony Blair Former Prime Minister

Great Britain and Northern Ireland

Strive Masiyiwa Chairman and Founder,

Econet Wireless

What is the most

powerful force the

world has ever

produced?

#4 – “Compound interest.”

y=Cekt

A=Pert

a = Future Value

P = Original Principal

r = Rate

t = Time

• Things We Know for Sure

• Things That Will Change the World

Towards a More Prosperous Future

$25,000-a-year @ 0%

$6,642-a-year @ 6%

$1,304-a-year @ 12%

(or a one-time investment of $10,747)

Rate of Return Concerns

How to Save $1-Million in 40 Years

Sources: U.S. State Dept.; U.K. Parliament

U.S. U.K.

Percent of Population Owning a Passport

Source: Bloomberg.

Expansion of balance sheets of major central banks

Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

Central bank total assets (% of GDP)

Source: Bloomberg

Central bank target interest rates remain low

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Percent

Federal Reserve

Bank of England

European Central Bank

Bank of Japan

40%21%

QE Operation Twist QE2 QE4 QE3

Source: Bloomberg, 4/21/2013 Washington Post, NY Times, Babson Capital.

Quantitative Easing Effect on S&P 500

Note: 3-month interest rates: Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States; Weighted by 2012 GDP.

Sources: DataStream, International Monetary Fund, Milken Institute.

Global real short-term interest rates are negative

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Global real interest rate (%)

Record low 10-year treasury yields

Source: Bloomberg

1964 1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006 2013

Average: 6.7 percent

Ten-year Treasuryyield, percent

1981 2012 • 3-year loan

• $10,000 car

• 18% interest

$796* monthly

payment

• 5-year loan

• $25,000 car

• 2.99% interest

$423 monthly

payment

Interest Rates and Buying a Car

* = 2012 dollars

Wealth Patterns in Selected Countries 2012 wealth per adult in 1,000 U.S. dollars (rounded)

Source: Global Wealth Databook 2012, Credit Suisse

Australia $354.9 $193.7 8.8% 5.5%

France $265.4 $81.3 17.0% 4.8%

Germany $174.5 $42.2 32.0% 2.2%

Italy $212.9 $123.7 20.8% 2.4%

Japan $269.7 $141.4 4.3% 3.4%

United Kingdom $250.0 $115.2 17.4% 3.3%

United States $262.3 $38.8 31.9% 4.7%

Country Average Median <$10k >$1M

When Social Security was introduced in

1935, the average life span in the U.S.

was 61.7 years.

In 2012, life expectancy in the U.S.

reached 78.6 years.

Sources: National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Reports, vol. 54, no. 19, June 28, 2006.

U.S. Census Bureau, International Database.

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Longer Life Expectancy; Longer Retirements France

Expectancy at

age 65

Retirement Age

14.4 18.3 22.0 26.5

26.2 30.8

28.6 32.9

Source: OECD Ageing and Employment Policies, France 2005

Funding of the 100 Most-Underfunded

S&P 500 Defined-Benefit Pension Plans

Source: Bloomberg

US$ Billions

-$300 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Low interest rates are keeping a lid on funded levels S&P 500 U.S. Plans

U.S. (21.4%)

China (10.4%)

Japan (8.4%)

Germany (5.2%)

France (4.4%)

Brazil (3.6%)

U.K. (3.5%)

Italy (3.2%)

Russia (2.7%)

India (2.6%)

Sources: World Bank/Angus Maddison, “The World Economy: Historical Statistics” (OECD)/

PricewaterhouseCoopers/Milken Institute/Goldman Sachs (9/09); updated 2/25/13

The World’s Top 10 Economies (Percent of World GDP)

2050 1820

China (28.7%)

India (16.0%)

France (5.4%)

England (5.2%)

Prussia (4.9%)

Japan (3.1%)

Austria (1.9%)

Spain (1.9%)

U.S. (1.8%)

Russia (1.7%)

China (18.2%)

U.S. (16.6%)

India (12.1%)

Brazil (4.8%)

Indonesia (3.5%)

Japan (3.1%)

Mexico (3.1%)

Russia (2.7%)

Germany (2.4%)

U.K. (2.2%)

World’s 10 Fastest Growing Economies Annual Average GDP Growth, %

Angola 11.1%

China 10.5%

Myanmar 10.3%

Nigeria 8.9%

Ethiopia 8.4%

Kazakhstan 8.2%

Chad 7.9%

Mozambique 7.9%

Cambodia 7.7%

Rwanda 7.6%

China 9.5%

India 8.2%

Ethiopia 8.1%

Mozambique 7.7%

Tanzania 7.2%

Vietnam 7.2%

Congo 7.0%

Ghana 7.0%

Zambia 6.9%

Nigeria 6.8%

2001 - 2010 2011 - 2015

Source: The Economist; IMF (excludes countries with populations<10 million)

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Share of world GDP, based on purchasing -power-parity (PPP)

Advanced economies

Developing economies

Emerging market and developing economies are expected

to surpass advanced economies in 2013

Source: International Monetary Fund.

Market Capitalization: 1950

Europe

US + Japan = 68%

Europe

US + Japan = 69%

Europe

35% US + Japan = 42%

Advancing Technology

• Cost

• Speed

• Storage

• Access

Cost of a 1-Minute Phone Call from the U.S.

to India

Telecommunications cost to business

approaches zero.

Download speed

Ten years ago, a T1 line could download 1.2

megabits per second.

Today, a 4G device can download 6.4 megabits

per second.

… and much faster speeds are coming soon.

Source: PC World

IBM System 370/168 in 1976

• 8 megabytes for

$8 million

• Cost per megabyte:

$1 million

Apple iPad Mini

• 64 gigabytes for $529

• Cost per megabyte:

$0.008

By 2014, there will be more mobile phones –

7.3 billion – than people on the planet.

Source: Silicon India 2/28/13

Blockbuster $4.5 billion

Netflix $0.16 billion

40 Netflix = 1 Blockbuster

Blockbuster vs. Netflix - 2002 Market Value

Blockbuster vs. Netflix - 2013 Market Value

Netflix $13.1 billion

Blockbuster

Date: 5/14/13

Things That Will Change the World 1. Human Capital and Education

P = Prosperity

Ft = Financial Technology

HC = Human Capital

SC = Social Capital

RA = Real Assets

P=SFti*(SHCi+SSCi+SRAi)

The 21st century will see

a worldwide competition

for human capital.

Human capital

is the largest asset class.

Cost of Raw Materials & Energy

Today’s Microchip

1920’s Automobile

60% of the nearly 1 million Chinese

people with assets over 10 million yuan

($1.6 million) are thinking about

emigrating to the U.S. or Europe.

Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security (WSJ 2/22/12 “Plan B for China’s Wealthy: Moving to the U.S./Europe)

• Universal suffrage

• Universal education and health care

• Police and fire protection

• Religious freedom

• Cultural resources

• Property rights

• Protection of creditors

• Financial reporting standards

Examples of Social Capital

Three Ways for a Country

to Build Human Capital

• Increase education and practical skills

• Import people with skills

• Improve health and quality of life so

people are more productive

Between 1870 and 1950, Americans added

almost one year of education each decade.

By 1960, the highest average grade level in

the U.S. exceeded every other nation by two

years.

Since 1960, we have made no progress and

several other nations have surpassed us.

Source: Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz / The Race between Education and Technology

“I believe we can keep the

promise of our founding,

the idea that if you’re

willing to work hard … you

can make it here in

America, if you’re willing

to try.”

- Reelection Night Source: New York Times 11/7/12

Skilled

skilled

1950 Today

60% Unskilled

skilled

65% Skilled

15% Unskilled

Skilled and Unskilled Jobs

U.S. lags significantly in graduating engineers 2008 (or most recent year)

Sources: National Science Foundation, MAPI.

Percent of first university degrees in engineering

U.S. U.K. Canada Germany Japan Korea China

Source: Edward Gordon, “Winning the Global Talent Showdown”

The Jobs Problem

(It Isn’t Jobs – It’s Trained Workers)

Millions

123,000,000 high-

skilled jobs will be

available in 2020

50,000,000

Americans will qualify

for those jobs

Return

Job Training

Preschool

Programs

School

Opportunity Cost of Funds

Return on Human Capital Investment

Source: James Heckman, University of Chicago

“Big gaps in educational

attainment are present by age 5.

Some children are bathed in an

atmosphere that promotes human

capital development, and,

increasingly, more are not.”

“By 5, it is possible to predict with

depressing accuracy, who will

complete high school and who

won’t.”

James Heckman

Nobel Prize in

Economics

Source: New York Times – July 29, 2008

Knowledge Universe

Early Childhood

Education

Dependent Care

Services

Life Long

Learning

U.S. - Domestic International

Housing 33%

Transportation 18%

Food 13%

Insurance/pensions 11%

Healthcare 6%

Entertainment 5%

Apparel and services 4%

Supplemental Education 2%

Consumer Spending

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics/CLSA

U.S. Asia Food 23%

Supplemental Education 15%

Housing 10%

Clothing 8%

Other 8%

Transportation 6%

Healthcare 5%

Communication 5%

Things That Will Change the World 2. Immigration

Highly skilled, entrepreneurial

and educated immigrants are

crucial to any nation’s

prosperity.

Sources: Vivek Wadhwa, Duke University

• More than half of Silicon Valley’s science

and engineering workforce is foreign-born.

• More than 15 percent of Silicon Valley start-

up companies were founded by immigrants

from India.

• Another 13 percent had CEOs from China or

Taiwan.

Immigrants in Silicon Valley

1. Harvard University

2. University of Cambridge

3. University of Oxford

4. Stanford University

5. Berkeley

6. University of Tokyo

7. Johns Hopkins University

8. MIT

9. Yale University

10. UCLA

World University Ranking Life Sciences and Medicine

11. Imperial College London

12. UC San Diego

13. National University/Singapore

14. University of Melbourne

15. University College London

16. University of Toronto

17. University of Edinburgh

18. Kyoto University

19. University of Sydney

20. University of British Columbia

– 9,500 students

– 20% foreign

– 108 from China

– 14,500 students

– 29% from non-EU countries

– 1,800 from China and

Malaysia

Students at Imperial College come from 126 nations.

36% of staff members are immigrants.

Canada 2%

Other 4%

Latin America

Europe

Asia 5% Latin

America

Canada

1960 Other

Where U.S. Immigrants Were Born

Source: Migration Policy Institute, U.S. Census

America’s Changing Faces Annual Population Growth Rate (2001-2011)

Blacks

Hispanics

European

Asians

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

California’s Changing Faces Population Growth (2000 - 2011)

2.9% 21.8% 23.8% Blacks Asians Latinos

European

(4.0%)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Top Ten Home-Buyer Surnames California

Source: MDA DataQuick, county records / California Association of Realtors

1. Smith

2. Lee

3. Johnson

4. Garcia

5. Brown

6. Williams

7. Miller

8. Wong

9. Martinez

10. Jones

2010 1. Nguyen

2. Lee

3. Garcia

4. Chen

5. Lopez

6. Rodriguez

7. Gonzalez

8. Hernandez

9. Martinez

10. Kim

Source: Pew Hispanic Center.

Latino participation in U.S. presidential elections

Eligible voters

Actual voters

Source: International Trade Administration.

Mexico is the second largest importer of U.S. goods

U.S. exports by country (2012)

Source: International Trade Administration.

Mexico is the 3rd largest exporter to the U.S.

U.S. imports by country (2012)

Things That Will Change the World 3. The Rise of the Middle Class

Percentage of Population in Asia’s Middle Class

Sources: Euromonitor; World Bank; CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets / 2010

Philippines

Indonesia

Thailand

Malaysia 2014 2009

70% 60% 50% 40% 10% 0% 30% 20%

Source: Eurostat (EU27 projections)

India’s Developing Middle Class Percent of Total Population by Age

2008 2020 2030

Wealthy

Middle Class

Aspiring

Middle Class

Impoverished

Source: OECD.

China and India will make waves in the global middle class

Share of global middle-class consumption, 2000-2050

Rest of World

India 2%

Global Middle-Class Consumer Spending

China 4% Japan

14% Rest of World

20% U.S.

India 23%

4% Other

Source: Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. Households with daily per capita incomes between $10 and $100, adjusted for local purchasing power.

Vehicle Ownership by Country Cars Per 1,000 People

Italy Spain Russia China Brazil Indonesia India

Source: HIS Global Insight / Guggenheim

Projected Global Vehicle Population

2012 2050E

2000 - 4000

Things That Will Change the World 4. Access to Financial Capital

P = Prosperity

Ft = Financial Technology

HC = Human Capital

SC = Social Capital

RA = Real Assets

P=SFti*(SHCi+SSCi+SRAi)

America Goes to Work U.S. and Fortune 500 Employment

00 95 90 85 80 75 70

U.S. = +62 million jobs

Fortune 500 = minus 4 million

New financial

technologies are

fully implemented

Index 1970 = 100

Modern capital

markets begin

Sources: S&P LCD / JPMorgan.

Banks CLOs Hedge, distressed and

high-yield funds

Prime rate funds, financial

and insurance companies

Institutional Investor Base for

Non-investment Grade Loans

European credit is a bank market Bonds and loans as a share of total corp. debt

Sources: ECB

Job Creation Since 1970

United States

Western Europe

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Number of jobs, Index, 1970=100

Note: Data as of 03/09/2012.

Source: DataStream.

Cyprus: Large bank assets relative to GDP

Ireland Cyprus France Spain Portugal Germany Italy Greece

Bank assets (% country GDP)

Bank assets are several times higher than

GDP in some European countries

189160

131 129 11999

Percent Assets of the 4 biggest banks (%GDP), 2012

Sources: BankScope, Milken Institute.

Sources: McKinsey

Chinese small businesses create jobs;

Large enterprises get the bank loans

Enterprises

Mid-size

enterprises

Number of

Enterprises

Number

Employed

GDP Bank

44% 35%

The Nature of Credit

1. Credit is what counts, not leverage.

2. Most loans to real estate are not investment-grade.

3. Interest rates are volatile and unpredictable.

4. Credit research is more than ratings.

5. Sovereign debt is historically risky.

6. Debt values underpin all capital markets

“When national debts have once been

accumulated to a certain degree, there is

scarce, I believe, a single instance of their

having been fairly and completely paid.”

Adam Smith

Sovereign Debt Has Long Been Suspect

A Greek History of Default

“In the 4th century BC,

the Temple of Delos

had to take an 80%

haircut on loans

extended to 13 Greek

city-states.”

-Kenneth Rogoff and

Carmen Reinhart

Economists

Source: Financial Times 11/4/11

“Greece has been in default for roughly

one out of every two years since it

gained independence (1829).”

Economists Kenneth Rogoff

and Carmen Reinhart

Source: Financial Times 11/4/11

A Greek History of Default

Sovereign Debt Defaults

Sources: This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises, Carmen M. Reinhart

• 1828

• 1898

• 1902

• 1914

• 1931

• 1937

• 1961

• 1964

• 1983

• 1986

• 1990

• 1832

• 1868

• 1911

• 1914

• 1931

• 1982

• 1999

• 2008

•1876

•1915

•1940

•1978

• 1826

• 1848

• 1860

• 1865

• 1892

• 1898

• 1983

• 1990

• 1995

• 1998

• 2004

Brazil Ecuador

• 1839

• 1885

• 1918

• 1991

• 1998

Russia

•1826

•1843

•1852

•1893

•1932

•2011

Greece Turkey Venezuela

• 1982

• 1986

• 1992

• 2001

• 2004

Nigeria

Unit Labor Costs in Europe

Source: European Central Bank, Q4 2011

Greece Italy Spain

Index (2005

Euro area unit labor costs

Selected countries

Source: OECD Economic Outlook.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Index (2000=100)

Germany

Greece

ItalyIreland

France

Euro area: Divergent trends in unemployment rate 2012

Source: EuroStat.

25.0 24.3

15.914.8

11.4 10.7 10.28.1 7.9

Spain Greece Portugal Ireland Euro area average

Italy France U.S. U.K. Germany

Unemployment rate, percent

Euro area: Youth unemployment rates are

alarmingly high in euro zone 2012

Source: EuroStat.

55.453.2

37.735.3

24.7 23.121.0

Greece Spain Portugal Italy Ireland France Euro are average

U.K. U.S. Germany

Youth unemployment rate, percent

Things That Will Change the World 5. Energy

Traditional Drilling

Spindletop (Beaumont, TX), 1901

Drilling Depth: 1,139 feet

Modern Techniques

Marcellus Shale (Pennsylvania), 2012

Drilling Depth: 9,000 feet

Technology Game Changer

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration.

Major Shale Basins Around the World

Note: Fossil fuels include oil, natural gas and coal.

Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office

Technology Game Changer U.S. now has the largest energy reserves in the world

17.0 16.6

5.7 5.5 5.4 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.3

1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7

Total fossil fuel reserves, % of world total

Things That Will Change the World 6. Crowdsourcing

Crisis: Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill April 20, 2010

Crisis: Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

• Oil flowed unabated – 53,000 gallons a day –

into the Gulf of Mexico for three months

• Up to 180,000-square kilometer area

• Time needed to cap the well: 5 months

• Average daily oil collection rate: 2000 barrels

per day

$1.4 million prize

The Challenge: create an innovative solution to speed the

pace of cleaning up seawater surface oil resulting from spillage from

ocean platforms, tankers, and other sources.

The Winners: Two teams demonstrated the ability to recover

oil at a rate of more than 2,500 gallons per minute with a 70%

efficiency rate. The first-place winner recovered oil 3X faster than

the industry’s best cleanup rate.

Among the Top 10 finalists …

• 5 teams from the U.S.

• 2 teams from Norway

• 2 teams from Finland

• 1 from the Netherlands

• 7 teams exceeded the previous industry-best

recovery rate

• 7 teams exceeded a 70% efficiency

Team Vor-Tek: A Top 10 Finalist

Fred Giovannitti

Things That Will Change the World 7. Bioscience

Each life is priceless…

but in economic terms, over the past two

centuries, as much as 50% of all economic

growth can be traced to advances in health.

The Value of Health

1820 1900 1950 2010

Source: United Nations Development Program

+18 +36

Worldwide Life Expectancy Growth

Life Expectancy in East Asia

1955-1960 2011 40

Source: : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, CD-ROM Edition

U.S. Economy

$15.3 trillion

Lifestyle Makes a Difference

Sources: CIA Handbook / Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (2009)

30% is spent on

hereditary diseases.

70% of health-care spending –

about $2.5 trillion – is spent on

lifestyle-related diseases.

Obesity Prevalence Among U.S. Adults 1991

Sources: Trust for America's Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation

25-30%+

Obesity Prevalence Among U.S. Adults 2012

The price of a

souvenir bucket of

popcorn at Yankee

Stadium is only

But with 2,473

calories … what’s

the real cost to

More than 100% of daily recommended calorie requirement.

If David Lived in America …

In 2009, which state had the highest

percentage of adults who ate more than

three daily servings of vegetables?

a. Alabama

b. California

c. Hawaii

d. Oregon

e. Tennessee

Of course, the U.S. Department of

Agriculture lists among “vegetables”:

• French fries

• Catsup

• Iceberg lettuce

Failure to address chronic diseases

adequately costs the

U.S. economy more than

$1 trillion annually.

Chronic Disease Study

National Institutes of Health Budget $US billions

98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Source: National Institutes of Health

05 06 07 08 09 10 11

$200 billion

Outlook for Biomedical Research Spending (2012)

China India

Brazil Korea Japan

Germany

Australia UK

France

US Canada

Source: OECD – Government Budget Appropriations or Outlays for Research and Development (2012)

Singapore

An organization dedicated to shortening the

time to find cures and better treatments for

all life-threatening diseases

Celebration of Science - 2012

DNA Pioneer James Watson

The Beery Family

U.S. Energy Sec’y Steven Chu

National Science Foundation

Director Subra Suresh

Elias Zerhouni, President,

Global R&D, Sanofi

Elizabeth and

Ariel Glaser

November 7, 1991

With AIDS pioneering researcher Tony Fauci

at Celebration of Science

Earvin “Magic” Johnson at

Global Conference

The Berlin Patient Timothy Brown

First person cured of AIDS

• Recent research reports

that bone marrow

transplant resulted in a

new immune system

Sequencing the Human Genome

• 13 years

• $3 billion

Today:

• A few hours

• Approaching $1,000

We are entering an

“Age of Precision Medicine.”

• Precision medicine

• Immunology

• Stem cells

• Orgs

3-D Printing

Create a legacy that relegates cancer

and other life-threatening diseases to our

children’s history books.

Goldman Sachs 2013 Global Macro Conference

New York

May 15, 2013

Michael Milken Chairman, The Milken Institute

Toward a More Prosperous Future

goldman sachs 2013 macro conf

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