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Grain and Oilseed Market Outlook
Todd Hubbs
jhubbs3@Illinois.edu
Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
University of Illinois
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use
Area Planted (mil. Acres) 56.24 56.84 55.0 50.1 46.0 47.8
Area Harvested (mil. Acres) 45.33 46.39 47.3 43.9 37.5 39.6
Yield (Bu./Acre) 47.1 43.7 43.6 52.7 46.3 47.6
Production (mil. Bu) 2,135 2,026 2,062 2,309 1,740 1,884
Total Supply (mil. Bu) 3,026 2,768 2,927 3,402 3,079 3,123
Exports (mil. Bu) 1,176 864 775 1,051 901 1,000
Feed and Residual (mil. Bu) 228 114 152 161 50 110
Food (mil. Bu) 955 958 957 949 964 970
Seed (mil. Bu) 77 79 67 61 63 69
Total Use (mil. Bu) 2,436 2,015 1,952 2,222 1,979 2,149
Ending Stocks (mil. Bu) 590 752 976 1,181 1,099 974
Season Average Price ($ per Bu.) $6.87 $5.99 $4.89 $3.89 $4.72 $5.05-5.25http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: WASDE
Major Producers and Importers
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
Wheat Production – Major Producers
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
717 625
1,168
4,8695,056
4,574
3,663
937
1,885
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Argentina Australia Canada China European Union FSU - 12 India Pakistan United States
Mill
ion
s o
f B
ush
els
2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
Data: FAS GATS
Major World Wheat Importers
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: FAS PSD
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Egypt Indonesia Brazil Algeria EuropeanUnion
Bangladesh Japan Philippines Mexico Nigeria
Mil
lio
ns
of
Bu
sh
els
2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
Largest Markets for U.S. All Wheat Exports: Last Five Marketing Year Average
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mexico* Japan* Philippines* Nigeria* Brazil* China South Korea Taiwan Indonesia* Columbia EU-27*
Mil
lio
ns
of
Bu
sh
els
Data: FAS PSD
Largest Markets for U.S. All Wheat Export Total Commitments through December 13: Last Two Marketing Years
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: FAS Export Sales
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Philippines Mexico Japan S. Korea Nigeria Thailand Taiwan Indonesia EU-27
Mil
lio
ns o
f B
ush
els
2018-19 2017-18
Export Inspections through Jan. 24 total 528 million bushels. Need to export approximately 27 million bushels a week for rest of marketing year to hit USDA projection.
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Supply:
Production (mil. bu.) 27,631 27,851 26,948
Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 8,965 9,443 10,286
Total Supply(mil. bu.) 36,596 37,294 37,234
Consumption:
Total Consumption(mil. bu.) 27,154 27,264 27,383
Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 9,443 10,031 9,651
Stocks-to-use 35.0% 36.8% 35.2%
Average farm price ($/bu.) $3.89 $4.72 $5.15
World Wheat Supply and Use
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: WASDE
Stocks and Average Price by Marketing YearMarketing
YearU.S. Stocks
to UseWorld Stocks
to UseWorld less China
Stocks to UseU.S. Avg. Farm Price
$ per bu.Illinois Avg. Farm
Price
2012-13 29.9% 25.8% 22% $7.77 $7.13
2013-14 24.2% 28.3% 22.6% $6.87 $6.52
2014-15 37.3% 31.3% 24.5% $5.99 $4.98
2015-16 50% 34.5% 24.7% $4.89 $3.85
2016-17 53.1% 35.3% 23.5% $3.89 $4.09
2017-18 55.5% 37.6% 23.8% $4.72 $4.55
2018-19 45.3% 35.9% 17% $5.15 $5.05
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
Illinois Monthly Average Wheat Price
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: NASS
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Do
lla
rs p
er
Bu
sh
el
Monthly Avg. Price Received in Illinois (2005-06 to 2017-18) Monthly Avg. Price Received in Illinois (2014-15 to 2017-18)
Monthly Avg. Price Received in Illinois (2018-19)
2019-20 Wheat Balance Sheet2019-20
Current USDA
Forecast
2019-20
Forecast Low Exports 18-19
2019-20
ForecastLower Acreage
Supply:
Planted Acreage (mil.) 51.0 51.0 47.4
Harvested Acreage (mil.) 43.1 43.1 39.5
Yield (bu./ac.) 47.8 47.8 47.8
Production (mil. bu.) 2,060 2,060 1,888
Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 974 995 995
Imports (mil. bu.) 130 130 130
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,164 3,185 3,013
Consumption:
Domestic Use (mil. bu.) 1,163 1,163 1,163
Export (mil. bu.) 1,050 1,050 1,050
Total Consumption(mil. bu.) 2,213 2,213 2,213
Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 951 972 800
Stocks-to-use 42.97% 43.92% 36.15%
Average farm price ($/bu.) $5.20 $5.15 $5.35
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 USDA
Estimate2018/19 USDA
Forecast
Area Planted (mil. Acres) 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.4 90.1 89.1
Area Harvested (mil. Acres) 76.3 82.6 81.7 82.7 89.5 88.3
Yield (Bu./acre) 44 47.5 48 52.0 49.3 52.1
Production (mil. Bu.) 3,358 3,927 3,296 4,296 4,411 4,600
Imports (mil. Bu.) 72 33 24 22 22 25
Total Supply (mil. Bu.) 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,515 4,734 5,063
Crush (mil. Bu.) 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,080
Seed and Residual (mil. Bu.) 107 146 122 146 122 128
Exports (mil. Bu.) 1,638 1,842 1,936 2,166 2,129 1,900
Total Use (mil. Bu.) 3,478 3,862 3,944 4,214 4,296 4,107
Ending Stocks (mil. Bu.) 92 191 197 302 438 955
Season Average Price ($ per Bu.) $13.00 $10.10 $8.95 $9.47 $9.33 $7.85 - $9.35
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: WASDE
Soybean Production
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
3.13.2
2.7
3.0
3.4 3.3
3.1 3.0
3.4
3.9 3.9
4.34.4
4.6
2.12.2
2.22.1
2.5
2.8
2.4
3.0
3.2
3.6 3.5
4.2
4.4 4.4
1.5
1.81.7
1.2
2.0
1.8
1.5
1.8
2.0
2.3
2.1 2.1
1.4
2.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Bill
ion
s o
f B
ush
els
United States Brazil ArgentinaData: NASS
1,640
1,700
1,615
1,530
1,696
1,739
1,808 1,803
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,703 1,689
1,734
1,873 1,886 1,901
2,0552,080
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
Mill
ion
s o
f B
ush
els
U.S. Soybean Crush
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: WASDE
U.S. Soybean Exports
9961,064 1,044
887
1,097
940
1,1161,159
1,279
1,499 1,505
1,3661,328
1,639
1,842
1,942
2,166 2,129
1,900
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Mill
ion
Bu
she
ls
U.S. Soybean Exports China Mexico JapanData: FAS GATS
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
487382
787
622
9481,041 1,056
1,3901,510
1,8191,923
2,1132,200
2,535
2,879
3,058
3,436 3,454
3,307
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Mill
ion
s o
f B
ush
els
China Soybean Imports
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: FAS
2018 Daily Soybean Export Prices for Paranagua Brazil and New Orleans
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: CEPES and AMS
Brazil and U.S. Monthly Exports
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: COMEX VIS and FAS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Mil
lio
ns o
f B
us
he
ls
U.S. 5-Year Avg. U.S. 2017-18 U.S. 2018-19 Brazil 5-Year Avg. Brazil 2017-18 Brazil 2018-19
U.S. Soybean Stocks to Use Ratio and Average Farm Price
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Do
llars
pe
r Bu
sh
el
Pe
rce
nt
U.S. Soybean Stocks to Use Ratio Avg. Farm Price
Data: WASDE
Soybean Balance Sheet2018-19
Current USDA
Forecast
2018-19
Forecast
2019-20
Forecast
Supply:
Planted Acreage (mil.) 89.1 89.1 85.7
Harvested Acreage (mil.) 88.3 88.3 84.9
Yield (bu./ac.) 52.1 51.8 49.2
Production (mil. bu.) 4,600 4,574 4,177
Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 438 438 929
Imports (mil. bu.) 25 25 25
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 5,063 5,037 5,131
Consumption:
Crush (mil. bu.) 2,080 2,070 2,045
Export (mil. bu.) 1,900 1,910 1,930
Seed and feed (mil. bu.) 128 128 124
Total Consumption(mil. bu.) 4,107 4,108 4,109
Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 955 929 1,022
Stocks-to-use 23.3% 22.6% 24.8%
Average farm price ($/bu.) $8.60 $8.50 $8.40
Illinois Monthly Average Soybean Price
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: NASS
$8.00
$8.50
$9.00
$9.50
$10.00
$10.50
$11.00
$11.50
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Do
lla
rs p
er
Bu
sh
el
Monthly Avg. Soybean Price Received in Illinois (2005-06 to 2017-18) Monthly Avg. Soybean Price Received in Illinois (2014-15 to 2017-18)
Monthly Avg. Soybean Price Received in Illinois (2018-19)
U.S. Corn Supply and Use2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
USDA Est.2018/19 USDA
Forecast
Area Planted (mil. Acres) 95.4 90.6 88 94.0 90.2 89.1
Area Harvested (mil. Acres) 87.5 83.1 80.8 86.7 82.7 81.8
Yield (Bu./acre) 158.1 171 168.4 174.6 176.6 178.9
Production (mil. Bu.) 13,829 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,626
Imports (mil. Bu.) 36 32 67 57 36 45
Total Supply (mil. Bu.) 14,686 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,934 16,811
Feed and Residual (mil. Bu.) 5,002 5,284 5,113 5,472 5,298 5,500
Food, Seed, and Industrial (mil. Bu.) 6,493 6,601 6,643 6,883 7,058 7,080
Ethanol (mil. Bu.) 5,124 5,200 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,600
Exports (mil. Bu.) 1,920 1,867 1,901 2,293 2,438 2,450
Total Use (mil. Bu.) 13,454 13,748 13,664 14,649 14,793 15,030
Ending Stocks (mil. Bu.) 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 1,781
Season Average Price ($ per Bu.) $4.46 $3.70 $3.61 $3.36 $3.36 $3.25 - $4.95
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: WASDE
Corn Production
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
12.4 12.3
10.8
13.814.2
13.6
15.1
14.6 14.6
2.3
2.93.2 3.1
3.3
2.6
3.9
3.33.7
1.0 0.81.1 1.0 1.2 1.2
1.61.3
1.7
0.7
1.3 1.3
1.9 1.7 1.61.9
1.72.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Bill
ion
of
Bu
she
ls
United States Brazil Argentina FSU - 12Data: NASS
U.S. Feed and Residual Use and Grain Consuming Animal Units
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
5,819 5,845
5,545
5,778
6,132 6,111
5,535
5,853
5,128 5,096
4,770
4,512
4,309
5,002
5,286
5,118
5,470
5,298
5,500
80
85
90
95
100
105
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Millio
n A
nim
al U
nitsM
illi
on
s o
f B
us
he
ls
Feed and Residual Use Grain Consuming Animal Units
Data: NASS
U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
630707
996
1,1681,323
1,603
2,119
3,049
3,709
4,591
5,019 5,000
4,641
5,1245,200 5,224
5,432
5,605 5,600
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Mill
ion
s o
f B
ush
els
Data: WASDE
U.S Ethanol Exports by Marketing Year
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
World Brazil Canada China India South Korea Mexico Netherlands Peru Phillippines
Mill
ion
s o
f G
allo
ns
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Data: EIA
U.S. Corn Exports
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
2,134 2,125
2,437
1,849
1,979
1,831
1,539
730
1,9211,867 1,899
2,294
2,438 2,450
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Mil
lio
ns o
f B
us
he
ls
World Mexico Japan South Korea Columbia
Data: FAS GATS
U.S. Corn Stocks to Use Ratio and Average Farm Price
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Do
llars
per B
ush
el
Pe
rce
nt
Corn Stocks to Use Ratio Weighted Avg. Farm Price
Data: WASDE
Corn Balance Sheet2018-19
Current USDA
Forecast
2018-19
Forecast
2019-20
Forecast
Supply:
Planted Acreage (million acres) 89.1 89.1 91.8
Harvested Acreage (million acres) 81.8 81.8 84.5
Yield (Bushels / Acre) 178.9 177.6 174.2
Total Production(million bushels) 14,626 14,528 14,720
Beginning Stocks(million bushels) 2,140 2,140 1,768
Imports (million bushels) 45 40 40
Total Supply (million bushels) 16,811 16,708 16,528
Consumption:
Feed and Residual (million bushels) 5,500 5,450 5,400
Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels) 7,080 7,100 7,090
Ethanol (million bushels) 5,600 5,620 5,600
Exports (million bushels) 2,450 2,390 2,275
Total Consumption (million bushels) 15,030 14,940 14,765
Ending Stocks (million bushels) 1,781 1,768 1,763
Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%) 11.8% 11.8% 11.9%
Average Price ($/bu.) $3.60 $3.70 $3.65
Illinois Monthly Average Corn Price
http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu Data: NASS
$3.20
$3.40
$3.60
$3.80
$4.00
$4.20
$4.40
$4.60
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Do
lla
rs p
er
Bu
sh
el
Monthly Avg Corn Price Received in Illinois (2005-06 to 2017-18) Monthly Avg Corn Price Received in Illinois (2014-15 to 2017-18)
Monthly Avg Corn Price Received in Illinois (2018-19)
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