gridlock? – transport in 2030 solving congestion in south east england

Gridlock? – Transport in Gridlock? – Transport in 20302030

Solving Congestion in South Solving Congestion in South East EnglandEast England

14th November, 2007

Adrian ShooterChairman, ATOC

London’s economy depends on its railways

“You can’t build your way out of congestion”

London Commuting

People entering central London during morning peak (thousands)2006

1.3%

1.6%

0.6%

0.7%

7%

10%

34%

44%

Surface RailLU & DLRBusCoach/MinibusCarMotor CyclePedal CycleTaxi

Source: DfT Transport Statistics Great Britain 2007 Edition; Table 1.6

Where are we Going?

Passenger Kilometres since 1995/96

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995

/96

1996

/97

1997

/98

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/99

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/00

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/04

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/05

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/06

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/11

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Pa

ss

en

ge

r K

M (

Bill

ion

)

TfL Forecast25% by 2025

White Paper Forecast

22% by 2014

Ruth Kelly50% by 2037

London Commuting Passenger KM99/00 to 06/07

Total Passenger KM95/06 to 06/07

Note: Percentage Increase on 2005/06 Pass KM is assumed in all forecasts

Source of historical Pass KM : pre 99/00 = Lennon data (ATOC); 99/00 - 06/07 = ORR's National Rail Trends ver. Q1 07-08, Table 1.1b

European Comparisons

42.240.9 40.4

33.928.3

22.1 22.119.6

11.5 10.17.4

5.3 3.2 1.2

-13.3

-17.6-24.1

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

% i

ncr

ease

Great

Brit

ain

Irelan

d

Belgium

Franc

e

Spain

Germ

any

Denmar

k

Switzer

land

(SBB)

Holland

(NS)

Finlan

d

Hungar

yIta

ly

Austri

a

Norway

Czech

Rep

ublic

Poland

Portu

gal

Country

Passenger Kilometres - 2006 against the Base Year (1995/6/7)

New Line Capacity: HSL1

London/SE Capacity Schemes

What do Passengers want?

• Reliable, clean trains

• Good information

• Seat or standing?

• Value for money

• Easy ticketing

What the White Paper Offers

• Improved performance to 92.3%

• 1300 new coaches (2/3 in S.E.)

• Platform and depot works

• Thameslink project

• Reading rebuilding

• £150m on stations

• £200m on freight schemes

Clean, reliable trains; new depots

Double deck trains?

Longer trains

Track capacity

Station capacity

Schemes to unblock capacity

Access: bus

Access: cycling/walking

Access: car

London Overground

Electrification Benefits

• Acceleration rate improves capacity

• Alternative energy sources

• Regenerative braking

• Lighter vehicles

• Cheaper rolling stock cost

• Lower maintenance costs

Regenerative braking saves 16% energy consumption

Conclusions

Rail solutions:

• Longer trains, platforms

• Access to stations

• Schemes to unblock capacity

• Electrification

• New lines