hassan harajli undp cedro project ecorient - june 7 th 2012

CEDRO’s Mapping of Renewable Energy in Lebanon; From roof‐tops to open fields

Hassan Harajli UNDP CEDRO Project

EcOrient - June 7th 2012

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Table of Contents

What has been done and/or assessed by CEDRO Mapping renewables through CEDRO

Was it enough and/or will it last; The legacy of CEDRO

What should be done next?

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1- Assessment of Large-scale RE Sources;

The main options?

Hydro

Wind Solar

Bioenergy

Geothermal

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1- WIND: Onshore and Offshore

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Onshore WIND Prospects

When all areas where wind farms cannot be developed are removed;

High population density Military areas Commercial interests (e.g. mining / fishing… Civilian aviation sites National parks and forests Historic sites …

Where wind speeds are greater than 6.5 m/s (@80 m hub height) Assuming an installation density of 8 MW/km2

Results;

Mean 6.1 GW Maximum 12 GW Min 1.5 GW

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Economics of wind

Av. LC (5% DR) Av. LC (10% DR) DR)

Benefits of wind power integration as factor of discount rate, fuel prices, and the social cost of carbon

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Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)

CEDRO has completed a concise update on CSP technology. The document can be downloaded soon from CEDRO’s website

Proper solar resource assessment is being undertaken by RECREE (SolarMed) project for the region

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Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)

Technical feasibility limit: 1800 kWh/m2/y

Economic feasibility limit: 2000 kWh/m2/y

The higher the Direct

Normal Irradiance (DNI),

the more power is

generated by a

particular technology

Direct Normal Irradiance

Solar CSP in Lebanon

Slope + Water + DNI

Potential is there, therefore CSP is a matter of financial viability!

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Levelized Electricity Costs

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LEC: levelised electricity costs (solar-only) LEC: levelised electricity costs (15% HYBRID)

Parabolic T roug hWIT H 7.5 h S torag e

Parabolic T roug hwithout S torag e

C entral R ec eiverWIT H 15 h S torag e

C entral R ec eiver~without S torag e

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PV Farms

Techno-economic study underway for PV farms in Lebanon (CEDRO) – expected publication date (August 2012)

Constraints;

Area; it’s estimated that (mean) 6.4 acres (25,900 m2) are required to generate 1 megawatt of electricity using PV panels. This equates to almost five football fields of area per megawatt of electricity generated (NREL).

Costs: Approximate $2,000,000/MW (Turnkey) excluding land rent (land rent = $5/m2 & 2.5% of capital cost for O&M).

Expected; Levelised cost = $c24 – 26/kWh

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Hydro-power from non-river sources

CEDRO is undertaking an assessment of hydro-power potential from non-river sources; Irrigation channels Water distribution networks Electrical power plants Water treatment plants

To date; 0.73 MW from irrigation (yet data availability a problem) 0.992 MW from water distribution (data a problem) 5.26 MW from power plants 0.123 MW from WWTP (data also an issue as is the entire WWTP sector) Total: 7.1 MW

TA

SK

1:

Resou

rce A

ssessm

en

t Type Ranking

Residues from fellings 1

Residues of olive trees2

Residues of fruit trees

Residues of cereals 3

Energy crops 4

Cake by-products 5

Waste wood 6

Municipal sewage sludge 7

Animal fat8

Slaughterhouse residues

Yellow grease 9

Landfill potential 10

Task

3. Futu

re s

cenari

os Energy use

Scenario I

Scenario II

Scenario III

Scenario IV

Primary energy (GWh) 6953 2354 517 1543

Final Energy    

Electricity (GWh) 934 475 73 261

Electricity (MWe) 119 62 9 33

% of total (4000 MW) 3% 1.5% 0.23% 0.8%

Heat (ktoe) 131 78 14 39

% of total (347 ktoe in 2006) 37.7% 22.5% 4% 11.2%

Transport (ktoe) 271 28 14 39% of total (1511 ktoe in

2008) 18% 1.8% 1% 2.6%

Annual contribution of bioenergy to end-uses by year 2030

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Geothermal Power

TASKS

1 Geothermal Resource Assessment

2 Recoverable Resource Estimates

3 Required Drilling and Power Producing Technologies and their Economic Feasibility

4 Environmental Impacts of Geothermal Power Production

5 Barriers to Geothermal Power Development in Lebanon

April 2013

April 2012

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Mic

roge

nera

tion

u-CHP (e.g. Fuel cells) ASHP GSHP

Microwind PV SHW

‘Micro-generation’ can be defined as the production of electricity or heat from a low-carbon source, at capacities no more than 50kWe or 45kWth (UK definition).

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Microgeneration

Microwind PV SHW

• Most mature and cost-effective

• 300 litres; 1200 – 1500 USD

• Payback period; 2-5 years

• Expensive but costs reducing

• 1 kWp; 5,000-6,000 USD with storage

• 20-30 years

• Very location specific

• 1 kWp; 2,500-4,000 USD with storage

• 10-20 years

JEZZINE GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 3,000 Liters

HERMEL GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 4,000 Liters

TRIPOLI GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 12,000 Liters

SIBLINE GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 6,000 Liters

Keserween Public Hospital - 6,000 Liters

SAIDA GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 6,000 Liters (tanks)

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Photovoltaic system in Hosh-Oumara Community Center (Bekaa)UNDP-CEDRO

Khfour Public School (South) – 2 kWp

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The CEDRO LegacyThe importance of stirring the local market

The commercial maturity of new and renewable energy technologies relative to market penetration (Foxon et al. 2005)

CEDRO IMPACT (9.73 million USD)

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The CEDRO Impact; Market Creation and Employment

Expression of Interest (EOI);Lots (e.g.);

1- PV 2- SHW3- Energy efficiency

2008; PV; 10 firms applied, 7 passedSHW; 11 firms applied, 9 passedEE; 3 firms applied,3 passed

2010; PV; 27 firms applied, 13 passedSHW; 23 firms applied, 14 passedEE; 19 firms applied,7 passed(+ additional microwind Lot where 23 applied and 11 passed)

AppliedPassed

Applied Passed

2008

2010

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

PV

SHW

EE

PVSHW EE

Each of these companies employs between 15 – 50 + persons.

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The CEDRO Legacy

In brief;• CEDRO assisted in creating technical capacity building and

initiated markets for small-scale renewable energy, esp. photovoltaic systems and commercial SHW systems

• Shed light onto the renewable energy resources of the country, esp. wind, biomass, and geothermal.

• Created opportunities for local contractors and consultants, • Pushed forward the RE agenda by assisting in influencing

policies like net metering and how it can be applied technically

• Focused on awareness on RE for the young generation • Hopefully an overhauled and informative website

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What should be done next – small scale?

• Other technologies require market initiation, esp. bioenergy demonstration projects.

• Most importantly, market development policies are required… BACK TO THE S-Curve; – If the government of Lebanon does not introduce

bold measures to financially support renewables, CEDRO’s work (and others like it) will go to waste!

– Feed-in tariffs, even in a reduced form, must be assessed and introduced intelligently to take into account the current financial situation of the country, and how to subsidize this support while ensuring its’ effectiveness.

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For large-scale renewable; – Assessment of integration

and control into the national grid

– National Regulatory Authority or its alternative (NRA) – and capacity building for this Authority in licensing PPA

– We can’t wait 3 years after NRA is established!!!

What should be done next – large scale?

Please contact CEDRO at:

T/F: +961-1-981944E: cedro@undp-lebprojects.orgwww.cedro-undp.orgBeirut, Maarad Street, Building 287B, 1st floor CEDRO_UNDP

Thank you