home price monitor january 2012
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8/3/2019 Home Price Monitor January 2012
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Home Price Monitor
January 2012
National Association of REALTORS
Research Division
Cutting Through the Noise: Various Home Price Measure
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Highlights
On a month-to-month basis home prices rose slightly in November as measured byNAR, FHFA, and CoreLogics distressed-excluded measure. Declines in November
were measured by Case Shiller and CoreLogics full market index. On a year overyear basis, small declines persist across measures in November within the range thathas been typical of recent months.
NAR data show a monthly increase for December and suggest that the declinefrom December one year ago is smaller than in the 2 previous months.
New home prices continue to fluctuate greatly due to low levels of constructionand purchase activity.
Distressed sales, which hold back existing home prices, comprised 32 percentof sales in a recent survey of Realtorsdown from nearly 40 percent a yearago but slightly above the recently typical 30 percent mark. The seasonalslowdown in sales may explain the increase in distressed sales as a share of total
sales even as the number of distressed sales remains largely constant. The increase in the share of distressed sales may lower reported transaction
prices somewhatespecially as seen in the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic indexes.
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/distressed-property/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/distressed-property/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/distressed-property/ -
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Outlook
From a broad perspective, many of the same trends continue to dominate theoutlook. Low inventories, declining delinquency rates, and stable or increasing
foot traffic should help to support prices, though buyers searching for the
right home may have fewer options from which to choose. Very limited new
construction means that buyers initially searching for a new home may find
more selection among existing homes.
Client pricing expectations may continue to present challenges. Data from the
Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers show that sellers typically sold their
homes for 95% of the listing price, and 61% reduced the asking price at least
once.
Affordability remains high and job hiring data is showing signs of
improvement. An improving economy coupled with affordability could
provide a needed jolt to primary residence sales. In fact, blue-chip economists
believe that a technical bottom to the market is at hand.
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/foot-traffic/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/foot-traffic/http://www.realtor.org/topics/homebuyers_sellers_profile/hbs_pdf_2011http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2012/01/10/job-hiring-rate/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2012/01/11/blue-chip-forecast-on-home-prices/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2012/01/11/blue-chip-forecast-on-home-prices/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2012/01/11/blue-chip-forecast-on-home-prices/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2012/01/11/blue-chip-forecast-on-home-prices/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2012/01/10/job-hiring-rate/http://www.realtor.org/topics/homebuyers_sellers_profile/hbs_pdf_2011http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/foot-traffic/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/foot-traffic/ -
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Home Prices
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
240.00
260.00
280.00
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
N
ov-01
Feb-02
M
ay-02
Aug-02
N
ov-02
Feb-03
M
ay-03
Aug-03
N
ov-03
Feb-04
M
ay-04
Aug-04
N
ov-04
Feb-05
M
ay-05
Aug-05
N
ov-05
Feb-06
M
ay-06
Aug-06
N
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Feb-07
M
ay-07
Aug-07
N
ov-07
Feb-08
M
ay-08
Aug-08
N
ov-08
Feb-09
M
ay-09
Aug-09
N
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Feb-10
M
ay-10
Aug-10
N
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Feb-11
M
ay-11
Aug-11
N
ov-11
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
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Home Price Data Year over Year Change
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
No
v-01
Fe
b-02
Ma
y-02
Au
g-02
No
v-02
Fe
b-03
Ma
y-03
Au
g-03
No
v-03
Fe
b-04
Ma
y-04
Au
g-04
No
v-04
Fe
b-05
Ma
y-05
Au
g-05
No
v-05
Fe
b-06
Ma
y-06
Au
g-06
No
v-06
Fe
b-07
Ma
y-07
Au
g-07
No
v-07
Fe
b-08
Ma
y-08
Au
g-08
No
v-08
Fe
b-09
Ma
y-09
Au
g-09
No
v-09
Fe
b-10
Ma
y-10
Au
g-10
No
v-10
Fe
b-11
Ma
y-11
Au
g-11
No
v-11
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)
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Home Price Changes
*All data are not seasonally adjusted. Monthly changes should typically be computed only for
Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data. Because these change rates are often covered in the media
regardless of their suitability for analysis, they are presented here but should be used with
caution. Annual (yr-over-yr) changes computed for Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data give a
measure that is not affected by seasonal fluctuations.
Data Series
Nov-11
Monthly
Change*
Nov-11
Annual
Change*
Dec-11
Monthly
Change*
Dec-11
Annual
Change*
Next
Release
Date
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes 2.0% -3.6% 0.3% -2.5% 22-Feb
NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes 1.8% -4.0% 0.7% -2.5% 22-Feb
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only 0.8% -1.8% -- -- 23-FebS&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 -1.3% -3.7% -- -- 28-Feb
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 -1.3% -3.6% -- -- 28-Feb
CoreLogic National HPI -1.4% -4.3% -- -- Mid-Feb
CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded 0.2% -0.6% -- -- Mid-Feb
New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price -2.4% -1.8% -2.5% -12.8% 16-Feb
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
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Supply and Demand FactorsInventory
Sources: NAR
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA)
NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months)
NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes,
United States (Months) (right axis)
NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale atEOP, United States (Units, NSA) (left axis)
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SupplyNew Housing Starts and Permits
Sources: Census
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Units Authorized: 1-Unit Structures (SAAR, Thous.Units)
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Underlying Demand Job Growth and Hires
Sources: BLS
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (SA, Thous) JOLTS: Hires: Total (SA, Thous)
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Potential Job Growth Openings
Sources: BLS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
JOLTS: Job Openings: Total (SA, Thous)
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Housing Affordability
Sources: NAR
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
NAR Housing Affordability: Payment as Percent of Income, U.S. (%)
NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite (Fixed + ARM), United States
NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite
(right axis)
NAR Payment as Percent of Income
(left axis)
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