iamslic conference, suva, fiji 15 th september 2008 climate change: a janus-faced challenge for our...

IAMSLIC Conference, Suva, Fiji 15th September 2008

Climate change: a janus-faced challenge for our times

Patrick D. Nunn

Professor of Oceanic Geoscience

The University of the South Pacific

Organization of this talk

• The reality of climate change

• Looking back to the past

• Looking forward to the future

• Meeting the challenge of climate change in the Pacific Islands

Part 1

The reality of climate change

The reality of climate change• Global temperatures

rose by an average of 0.5°C between 1890 and 1990.

• Global temperatures are projected to rise between 1.0°C and 3.5°C between 1990 and 2100.

• Maybe a six-fold acceleration.

The reality of climate change• Global sea level rose

by an average of 15 cm between 1890 and 1990.

• Global sea level is projected to rise between 15 and 95 cm between 1990 and 2100.

• Maybe a six-fold acceleration.

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+ 0.8°C since 1940s - Hopkins Marine Station, California - Pacific sea anemone

Observing the effects of climate change

Marr Ice Piedmont, Antarctica - winter temperatures +5°C since 1950

Naigani Island, Fiji – shoreline erosion as a result of sea-level rise

See the fallen coconut trees

Naicabecabe Village, Moturiki Island, Fiji – at low tide

Navuti Village, Moturiki Island, Fiji – at high tide

Coming to terms with the reality of climate change

• We seek to minimize the impact of future climate change.

• Need to look back into the past to help us understand the present and future.

• Need to look into the future with all the tools at our disposal. Janus – Roman deity

Part 2

Looking back to the past

Looking back to the past

• Climate change as a continuous process

• Climate change for a variety of reasons

• Climate change as a cause of cultural change

Climate change as a continuous process

Climate change for a variety of reasons

Climate change as a cause of cultural change

Climate change as a cause of cultural change

Lessons from the past

• Climate is continuously changing

• Solar forcing is the principal cause of climate change

• Climate change is the principal cause of societal change.

Part 3

Looking forward to the future

Looking forward to the future

Looking forward to the future

• Effect on food productivity– Crops– Wild foods– Reef foods

Looking forward to the future

• Effect on food productivity– Crops– Wild foods– Reef foods

• Effect on disease transmission

• Effect on human comfort

Looking forward to the future

Tahiti (French Polynesia) sea-surface temperatures

Looking forward to the future

Looking forward to the future

• Projected to rise 15-95 cm by 2100 compared to 1990 level (most likely 30 cm by 2050).

• Rate of sea-level rise will be about 1-6 times faster than the previous 100 years.

Future sea-level rise

Looking forward to the future

• Effect on island water tables– Contraction and

salinization

Looking forward to the future

• Effect on island water tables– Contraction and

salinization– More frequent flooding

Looking forward to the future

• Effect on island water tables– Contraction and

salinization– More frequent flooding

• Effect on land area– Shrinkage of usable

land area

Looking forward to the future

• Effect on island water tables– Contraction and

salinization– More frequent flooding

• Effect on land area– Shrinkage of usable

land area– Shoreline erosion

Looking forward to the future

• Predicting the future

• Enabling decisionmaking

• Education about climate change

• Achieving sustainability

Part 4

Meeting the challenge of climate change

in the Pacific Islands

“Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 meters between the years 1990 – 2100.

The effects of climate change on human health, eco-systems, food production, water resources, small islands and low lying coastal areas are likely to be serious.

Overall, climate change is expected to negatively impact development, sustainability and equity.”

Address to the Ninth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Dr R K Pachauri, Chairman, IPCC

Milan, 10 December 2003

“It is truly frightening to think that our ocean will turn against us … I hope that the appeal of the peoples of the Pacific can help convince the industrialized nations to discontinue their profligate contamination of the atmosphere.”

President Amata Kabua of the Marshall Islands, 1988

“As a ten-year-old, I used to look at the sea with awe, at the seemingly endless supply of fish that I could harvest … now when I look at it, I wonder how far into the new millennium we will be before it overwhelms our coasts.

What is there to celebrate about a new millennium if the northern group of the Cook Islands, or the many islands of Kiribati, Tokelau, Tuvalu, the Federated States of Micronesia and the Marshall Islands are about to disappear beneath the ocean?”

Tamari’i Tutangata, Former Director of SPREP, 2000

Management imperatives:FIVE CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES

1. Taking ownership of climate change

2. Effective long-range planning

3. Mainstreaming awareness of climate change

4. Empowering communities

5. Relocation

CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #1: Taking ownership of climate change

• Economic development of Pacific Island nations is inextricably tied to environmental productivity.

• Pacific Island nations should not continue to depend on external funding for climate-change adaptation; they should accept the issue as one that affects them intimately and should signal this acceptance by committing recurrent in-country funds.

What is left after phosphate mining, Nauru

CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #1: Taking ownership of climate change

• Economic development of Pacific Island nations is inextricably tied to environmental productivity.

• Pacific Island nations should not continue to depend on external funding for climate-change adaptation; they should accept the issue as one that affects them intimately and should signal this acceptance by committing recurrent in-country funds.

• Pacific Island nations should not continue to depend on external funding for climate-change adaptation; they should accept the issue as one that affects them intimately and should signal this acceptance by committing recurrent in-country funds.

CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #2: Effective long-range planning

• Long-term national plans should focus on environmental sustainability not short-term profit

CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #2: Effective long-range planning

• Long-term national plans should focus on environmental sustainability not short-term profit

• Dilemma for many smaller poorer democratic countries

CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #3: Mainstreaming climate-change awareness

• Media responsibility

CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #3: Mainstreaming climate-change awareness

• Media responsibility• Coordinated efforts

to raise awareness through written and oral outreach

CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #3: Mainstreaming climate-change awareness

• Media responsibility• Coordinated efforts

to raise awareness through written and oral outreach

• Role of churches

CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #3: Mainstreaming climate-change awareness

• Media responsibility• Coordinated efforts

to raise awareness through written and oral outreach

• Role of churches• School education

CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #4: Empowering communities

• Direct targeting of community-level decision-makers by international donors and NGOs

CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #4: Empowering communities

• Direct targeting of community-level decision-makers by international donors and NGOs

• Awareness raising by national bodies

CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #5: Relocation: the unthinkable option?

• Acceptance that some places cannot continue to be occupied or utilized (as they are today) in future.

• Disruption associated with relocation can be reduced by early (anticipatory) action.

Tuvalu

Flooding in Nadi Town, Fiji – May 2007

Flooding in Nadi Town, Fiji – May 2007

Flooding in Nadi Town, Fiji – May 2007

Short-term solutions – not sustainable in long-term

Nadi Town (Fiji): the imperative for relocation

CROSS-CUTTING ISSUE #5: Relocation: the unthinkable option?

• Acceptance that some places cannot continue to be occupied or utilized (as they are today) in future.

• Disruption associated with relocation can be reduced by early (anticipatory) action.

Maloku, Moala Island, Fiji

Conclusion

I applaud the fact that a conference of information custodians is interested in

climate change ..

… because information is the ultimate key to confronting the challenge of climate change, information that is

appropriately packaged and accessible.

But in the end, it is for politicians to lead the way forward …

… but there is little sign that this happening in Pacific Island nations

at present.

Thank you for your attention