indiana economic outlook january 2015 michael j. hicks, ph.d. george & frances ball...

INDIANA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKJanuary 2015

Michael J. Hicks, Ph.D.George & Frances Ball Distinguished Professor of Economics

UNITED STATES2015 Forecast

U.S. GDP Quarterly Growth

Note: GDP for 2014Q3 was recently revised to 3.9% from 3.6%. GDP for 2014Q4-2015Q4 is the author’s estimate.

U.S. Quarterly Forecasts

U.S. Forecast

Real GDP

Growth

Unempl.Rate

Unemployed

Workers(# persons)

Job Creation:

Avg Monthly Change(# jobs)

Job Creation: Qrtly

Change (# jobs)

2015Q1 (Jan, Feb, Mar)

2.7% 5.9% 10,015,710

+93,871 +281,614

2015Q2 (Apr, May, Jun)

2.6% 5.9% 10,043,790

+107,444 +322,331

2015Q3 (Jul, Aug, Sep)

2.8% 5.8% 10,045,040

+117,650 +352,950

2015Q4 (Oct, Nov, Dec)

2.9% 5.7% 10,039,260

+121,421 +364,263

U.S. Business CyclesLength of Decline and Growth Periods

U.S. Debt as a Share of GDP

INDIANA2015 Forecast

Indiana Quarterly Forecasts 2015

Indiana Forecast GDP Growth Personal Income Growth

2015Q1 (Jan, Feb, Mar) 3.3% 3.4%

2015Q2 (Apr, May, Jun) 3.4% 3.3%

2015Q3 (Jul, Aug, Sep) 3.4% 3.3%

2015Q4 (Oct, Nov, Dec) 3.4% 3.3%

Indiana Employment & Labor Force

Indiana Layoff Data

Indiana Construction Employment

State Industry Forecasts for 2015Industry Indiana

Mining 0.1%Construction 1.1%Durable goods mfg 3.6%Nondurable goods mfg 3.1%Retail 3.2%Utilities 2.1%Wholesale 2.7%Transportation 2.7%Health care 1.3%Information services 0.9%Finance, insurance, real estate

2.2%

Government 0.2%

Questions?

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